Anàlisi de swing / tendències de la setmana que comença el diumenge 20 d'abril
El nostre anàlisi setmanal de tendències / swing consisteix en dues parts; en primer lloc, analitzem les decisions polítiques fonamentals i els esdeveniments informatius de la propera setmana. En segon lloc, fem servir l'anàlisi tècnica per intentar determinar les possibles oportunitats de negociació. Els comerciants que llegeixin els nostres esdeveniments clau del calendari per a la setmana haurien de tenir en compte les prediccions, ja que qualsevol desviació de la prevista pels economistes enquestats pot provocar moviments importants de parells de divises, en funció dels canvis conseqüents en el sentiment causats si les dades apareixen a la part superior o per sota de les expectatives.Dimarts sees wholesale sales in Canada published, with the anticipation that the figure comes in at a circa 0.7% rise month on month. HPI for the USA is predicted to come in at 0.6% up for the month. Consumer confidence in Europe is anticipated to come in at -9, with existing home sales in the USA expected to come in at an annual rate of 4.57 million. The Richmond manufacturing index is anticipated to have recovered from -9 to a zero reading.
Dimecres sees CPI from Australia published, predicted to come in at 0.8%, the HSBC manufacturing index for China is expected in at 48.4, flash manufacturing PMI for Germany is predicted to come in at 53.9, with services PMI scheduled to come in at 53.5. France’s flash Manufacturing index is expected in at 51.9 with services in at 51.5. Europe’s flash manufacturing PMI is predicted to come in at 53 with services at 52.7. The UK’s BoE MPC will reveal its voting to keep the base interest rate and the quantitative easing programme static with the vote expected to have been unanimous. Public net sector borrowing for the month is expected to have risen to £8.7 bn for the last month.
Des de Canadà, es preveu que les vendes al detall hagin augmentat un 0.5%; des dels EUA, es preveu que la lectura del PMI de fabricació flash arribarà al 56.2. S’espera que les vendes d’habitatges nous als EUA siguin de 455. Des de Nova Zelanda rebrem la decisió sobre la taxa base que s'espera que arribi al 3.00%, passant del 2.75%. La RBNZ publicarà una declaració sobre la seva decisió sobre el tipus d'interès.
Dijous sees the business climate reading from the IFO for Germany expected to come in at 110.5. The ECB president Mario Draghi will deliver a speech, whilst Spain will launch a ten year bond debt auction. In the UK the CBI will publish its realised sales expectations, predicted to come in at 18. From the USA we’ll receive core durable goods orders expected to come in at 0.6% up. Unemployment claims are expected in at 309K for the past week. Durable goods orders are anticipated to come in at 2.1% up.
Divendres sees Tokyo’s core CPI published with the anticipation that the reading will come in at 2.8%. All industries activity from Japan is expected to come in at -0.5%. From the UK we receive the latest data on retail sales, expected to come in at -0.4% for the month. BBA mortgage approvals in the UK are predicted to come in at 48.9K. Flash services PMI for the USA is expected to come in at 56.2 whilst the university of Michigan Consumer sentiment report is expected to deliver a reading of 83.2.
Anàlisi tècnica que detalla operacions potencials de diversos parells de divises, índexs i matèries primeres principals
La nostra anàlisi tècnica de negociació de swing / tendències es compon dels indicadors següents, que es deixen en la configuració estàndard, a excepció de les línies estocàstiques que s’ajusten a 10, 10, 5 per intentar “marcar” falses lectures. Totes les nostres anàlisis es realitzen només en el període de temps diari. Utilitzem: PSAR, bandes de Bollinger, DMI, MACD, ADX, RSI i estocàstics. També fem servir les mitjanes mòbils clau de: 21, 50, 100, 200. Cerquem evolucions clau en l'acció de preus i observem les manetes clau / els números rodons que apareixen i els nivells de psique. Per a les barres diàries es prefereix el mètode Heikin Ashi.
EUR / USD broke to the upside on April 8th, currently PSAR is positive and below price, the MACD and DMI are both positive, but failing to make higher high when using the histogram visuals for both indicators. Price is above all the major SMAs however the 21, 50 and 100 SMA are clustered indicating that price could break to the downside as momentum to the upside has potentially failed. The middle Bollinger band has been breached to the downside whilst several of the daily Heikin Ashi candles of last week failed to indicate direction to the upside or downside. The RSI is at 50 whilst the ADX is at 13. The stochastic lines have crossed to the upside, but are short of the overbought territory. Traders currently long would be advised to stay so until perhaps the PSAR has indicated a reversal in sentiment by turning negative. Thereafter traders would be advised to wait for extra indicator confirmation before committing to the downside. 13800 could prove to be the critical level for this security over coming days.
AUD / USD broke to the upside early in March, currently PSAR is below price and positive, the DMI is positive and making lower highs. The MACD is negative. The stochastic lines have crossed to the downside and have exited the overbought area. The RSI is at 59 and the ADX is at 37. Price is above all the main SMAs and threatening to breach the 21 SMA whilst the middle Bollinger band has been breached to the downside. The Heikin Ashi candles late in the week were inconclusive with a bias to the downside. Traders who are currently long, who have been so since this security broke to the upside in early March, will have locked in their profits by way of trailing stops. Thereafter, traders looking for an indication of a reversal in sentiment on the Aussie, could look towards the PSAR to reverse as a reason to stop and then reverse their trade direction. Given the length of the current trend traders might also be advised to wait for the DMI to also become negative before taking short opportunities.
USD / JPY broke to the downside on April 7th, however price has lost the majority the gains witnessed as the security sold off sharply for several days after the break to the downside. Currently the PSAR is above price, the MACD and DMI are positive, but making lower highs. Price is threatening to break through the 21 and 50 day SMAs. The stochastic lines are yet to cross and are short of the oversold area. The RSI is at 49 whilst the ADX is at 17. Looking at the Heikin Ashi candles towards the end of last week the Aussie is threatening to break to the upside and reverse sentiment to bullish. Traders might be advised to wait for the DMI and MACD to become positive and the PSAR to appear below price before fully committing once again to long trades.
El DJIA broke to the upside on April 15th. Currently price is above all the critical SMAs. PSAR is below price and positive whilst the last Heikin Ashi candles of last week were closed, full bodied with upward shadows. The DMI and the MACD are both positive and making higher highs using the histogram visual. The stochastic lines are mid territory and indicating that (on the adjusted setting) they are about to cross. The RSI is at 54 and the ADX is at 11. Traders currently long would be advised to stay so until as a minimum the PSAR turns negative and several of the other indicators in our cluster guide take on bearish tendencies.
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