Is die tendens nog steeds jou vriend? Tendensvoorspelling vir die week wat op 3 Julie 2013 begin
Soos die SPX rekordhoogtes bereik, stel die NFP-getalle teleur, maar die dollar bly gekoop.
As if proof were needed that the Fed's continual commitment to monetary easing is fueling the rise in the main equities indices of the SPX, the DJIA and the NASDAQ, it came in the form of several disappointing news events last week failing to dent the 'bidding up' of these gravity defying times and markets. The list of poor data emanating from the USA last week was quite significant, but it was the poor job print that caused many analysts to sit up and pay attention. The poor economic prints included the following;
- Hangende huisverkope het van 5.8%+ tot 0.4%- gedaal.
- Konferensieraad se vertroue het tot 80.3 gedaal
- NFP-werkskepping het tot 163K gedaal
- Fabrieksbestellings het gedaal tot 1.5% van 3.0%
Ten spyte van onmerkwaardige positiewe nuusgebeure om die negatiewe data teë te werk, buiten die VSA se BBP wat maand op maand tot 1.7% gestyg het en verskeie verbruikersvertroue opnames positief was, het die markte gestyg, asook die dollar teenoor baie van sy eweknie-geldeenheidspare.
This rise of the greenback in last week's trading sessions caused the change in longer term trends plotted on the daily chart and its these changes we'll take a closer look out with regards to potential trend continuations in the current week.
Beleidsgebeurtenisse, of nuusgebeure wat oor die week as 'n hoë impak beskou, wat sentiment kan beïnvloed en neigings kan verander.
Services PMI for the UK are published Monday. In an economy heavily dependent on the service economy to bolster confidence and economic performance analysts are pricing in an improved reading of 57.4 versus 56.5 previously. Manufacturing figures, courtesy of the UK's ONS will also be printed on Tuesday. Previously the print was 0.8% negative, the expectation is for a print of 0.9% positive. Should the number stay negative this could begin to question the positive PMI delivered by Markit previously and affect the price of sterling versus its major peers.
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The USA trade balance will be monitored carefully on Tuesday for sustained economic performance and to determine if the recent growth has any tangible weight. Crude oil inventories for the USA will also affect oil price and reveal how 'thirsty' the USA economy is for energy.
The Australian employment rate printed on Wednesday evening/Thursday morning could determine how hawkish, or dovish the Aussie government is and whether there's any appetitive in the RBA to lower interest rates more aggressively than previously discussed.
Thursday sees the BOJ press conference which will determine how fully committed the BOJ and Japan's government are to their various stated aims on inflation, growth and monetary easing.
The USA's continuous unemployment claims could be monitored more closely than in previous weeks on Thursday given the extremely disappointing NFP print. The prediction is for continuous claims to come in at 336K.
Tendenswaarnemings vir die week
Forex
EUR/USD failed to reach higher highs during last week's trading sessions verhoog die vermoedens dat die huidige tendens tot sy organiese einde gekom het. Vier uit die vyf handelsdae het geëindig met Hiekin Ashi dojis van verskillende sterkte en voorkoms. Die DMI is egter steeds positief, die MACD eweneens, die RSI lees tans meer as 70, terwyl die stogastiek steeds in die oorgekoopte gebied is, maar nog moet val.
The middle Bollinger band was breached to the downside during Friday's trading sessions, this was the only indication, bar the price action pattern displayed by the Heikin Ashi daily candle, which suggested that the current bullish trend had ended. If traders entered the trade, as per the classic trend indications on July 11th, then the pip gains should be significant. Handelaars sal aangeraai word om na verdere negatiewe aanduidings te kyk, miskien as 'n minimum PSAR om bo prys te verskyn en verskeie van die histogramme om negatief te word (die DMI en MACD) voordat hulle hul huidige lang handel sluit en daarna verbind tot 'n kort tendenshandel.
GBP / USD. Cable ended its current bullish trend at the latest on July 31st. The up-trend had commenced similar to other trends versus the dollar on or around July 11th. The trend ended with many of the classic trend trading indicators turning negative; PSAR above price, the DMI and MACD displaying negative readings, stochastics crossing on an adjusted setting of 9,9,5 and exiting the oversold territory, whilst the RSI fell below the median line of 50. However, the week ended by providing a dilemma for traders who may have taken short trend trades based on the popular indicators and the price action displayed by the Heikin Ashi candles. Due to the poor NFP print sentiment changed versus the dollar in the final trading session. Cable rose through R1, having hovered near to the daily pivot level before the jobs print. Friday's trading close produced a doij candle. Handelaars wat kort kabels het, sal nou die prysaksie oor die volgende twee verhandelingsessies moet monitor om te bepaal of hul korthandel steeds lewensvatbaar is. Hopelik kan handelaars wat kort is, 'n mate van troos uit die huidige situasie put as hulle volgens die aanwysers op of omstreeks 31 Julie ingegaan het en as gevolg daarvan steeds pyppositief is, of slegs 'n klein tendens-handelsverlies toon..
USD / JPY maintained its behaviour during last week's trading sessions as an incredibly tricky trade. The greenback has traded in a tight range since July 11th when many traders would have been tempted to short the currency pair. Thereafter the downside momentum visible on the chart has been extremely weak, whilst yen has developed strength due to its recent safe haven status as the Nikkei suffered severe losses in several of the overnight/early morning traded sessions last week.
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USD/JPY ontwikkel baie van die neigings van 'n sekuriteit wat gereed is om opwaarts uit te breek. DMI is positief op 'n aangepaste instelling van 20 (om geraas te versprei), die MACD maak hoër laagtepunte deur die histogram as 'n visuele gebruik te maak, terwyl die RSI op opeenvolgende dae bo die 50 mediaanlyn was. Die stogastiek moet nog oorsteek en neig moontlik opwaarts op 'n aangepaste instelling van 9,9,5. Handelaars sal aangeraai word om hul kaarte noukeurig te monitor op soek na verdere bewyse, soos die PSAR wat onder die prys verskyn, om 'n lang tendens te neem, of handel te posisioneer.
AUD / USD. the Aussie versus the USD has also proved to be an incredibly difficult trade over recent weeks given that this popular commodity pair has, similar to dollar yen, traded in a very narrow range. However, on July 30th the moribund nature of this currency pair's behaviour ended as a breakout to the downside was observed with all the major trend trading indicators becoming active. PSAR above price, MACD making lowers lows on the histogram, likewise the DMI. The RSI is printing in the 30 zone, generally accepted as a trending indication that this aggressive fall has further momentum. The lower Bollinger band has been breached whilst the stochastics have crossed on an adjusted setting of 9,9,5. Traders in this short trade would be advised to stay with it until indications to the contrary are exhibited. Miskien moet handelaars as 'n minimum na die PSAR kyk om onder die prys te verskyn om te verlaat en wag vir verdere aanwyserbevestiging voordat hulle hul sentiment na bullish verander.
Indekse
Die SPX reached new highs during last week's trading sessions, similarly the DJIA followed suit. Despite these new highs and judging by the price action displayed on the daily chart, many analysts and traders appear unconvinced that any breakout to the upside has much further momentum. The DJIA, SPX and NASDAQ have traded in tight ranges over recent weeks providing a very difficult situation for trend traders to manage.
Die konstante narratief van Fed-stimulusafname kan verantwoordelik wees vir hierdie impasse, of die eenvoudige feit dat handelaars blykbaar huiwerig is om pryse op die hoofindekse hoër as die onlangse rekordvlakke te bie sonder duidelike aanduidings dat die VSA-ekonomie wel besig is om te herstel. Vir tendens handelaars; Deur baie van die mees algemene voorkeur-neigingsaanwysers te gebruik, is om lank die DJIA te bly die voor die hand liggende besluit hangende enige beduidende negatiewe nuusgebeure wat 'n verkoop kan veroorsaak. Handelaars lank die DJIA sal aangeraai word om te kyk vir die PSAR wat bo prys verskyn as 'n minimum rede om hul lang ambagte te arresteer. Terwyl ook op soek is na verdere bevestiging deur middel van die MACD, DMI en RSI druk lomp seine.
Kommoditeite
WTI olie het sy bullish neigings hervat na 'n onlangse verkope, wat ooreenstem met die relatief lae Amerikaanse voorraadgetalle en verhoogde spanning in die Midde-Ooste. WTI het op 1 Augustus na die onderstebo begin breek nadat die verskyning van 'n klassieke doji-kers met Heikin Ashi op 31 Julie gesluit het. Olie het weereens gedreig om sy jaarlikse hoogtepunte wat twee weke tevore gedruk is, uit te haal. As ons kyk na die mees voorkeur-swaaihandelsaanwysers, lyk beide WTI- en Brent-olie bullish, die DMI druk hoër hoogtepunte op die histogram soos die MACD, terwyl die RSI-lesing op 60 is. Tendenshandelaars se lang olie sal aangemoedig word om lank te bly totdat lomp seine, by wyse van die mees gebruikte aanwysers, sigbaar word op die daaglikse grafiek.
Goud
Gold failed to maintain its bullish breakout to the upside having traded in a bullish tight range for several of the previous weeks' trading sessions. The signal to close and potentially trade to the downside, came courtesy of the PSAR indicator appearing over price whilst RSI flirted with the 50 median line. The middle Bollinger band has been breached whilst the stochastics, (on an adjusted setting of 9,9,5) have crossed and exited the overbought zone. Gold traders would be advised to stay short until many of the leading trend indicators suggest otherwise. Very little faith can be placed in gold's safe haven status currently, given the risk off risk on paradigm and subsequent correlations are currently impossible to determine.
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