Ngabe izinkomba zokulingana zase-US zizoqhubeka nokufinyelela kumarekhodi aphezulu ngenxa yedola laseMelika?
Izimakethe zezimali zaseMelika zigcine amandla abo adonsela phansi ngesonto eledlule njengoba i-DJIA, i-SPX ne-NASDAQ izinkomba zonke ziqhubeka nokuthola amarekhodi aphezulu. Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi i-DJIA igcine igqashule ezingeni lama-20,000 2017 ngoJanuwari 27,000 futhi nakhu lapho sesikhona, ngemuva kwezinyanga ezingamashumi amathathu kwathi ama-60 ephuliwe amele ukukhuphuka kwamaphesenti angamashumi amathathu nanhlanu. Ukukhuphuka kwe-NASDAQ bekumangalisa ngokwengeziwe, inkomba ye-tech ikhuphuke nge-circa XNUMX% ngesikhathi esifanayo ne-FAANG stocks ebala iningi lokukhula.
Ukuncishiswa kwentela yenkampani okwethulwe ukuphathwa kukaTrump yizinto ezibangela ukwanda okunjalo ngenxa yokwanda kotshalomali ezimakethe zezezimali ukufuna izinzuzo kanye nesivuno, ukukhuphuka kwezimakethe akubangelwa ukukhula komnotho. Njengoba amafemu amakhulu ezinkampani e-USA eshicilela imibiko yawo yakamuva kanye nemali etholwayo kuleli sonto kuzothakazelisa ukuphawula ukuthi ngabe lokhu kukhuthazwa kwezimali kuqhubekile nokwenza izimakethe, noma uma umfutho wokuqala ophawulwe ngenkathi yokuhola ka-2018 uqala ukufiphala.
Izinga lentela yenkampani lehlisiwe lisuka ku-35% laya ku-21%, njengoba okunye ukuncishiswa okuhlobene kwebhizinisi namakhredithi nawo ancishisiwe noma aqedwa ngokuphelele. Kepha yize ukusikeka okukhulu kwe-GDP ukukhula kwehlulekile ukuthola umfutho obalulekile, oqhubekayo, okunezela ekugxekweni kokuthi ukuncishiswa kwentela kwakusekelwa njengoba umphumela ophansi ubonakala umncane.
Yize izinsimbi zikahulumeni wase-USA zizoqhubeka nokugcizelela amanani aphansi okuntuleka kwemisebenzi kanye nokuqashwa njengezimpawu zokuthi umnotho wase-USA unamandla, iWall Street iqhubekele phambili ngenkathi uMain Street esahlala emathunjini. Ngokuya ngemininingwane ethile evela kuPew Research cishe imindeni engama-40% yase-USA ayikwazi ukubeka izandla kuma- $ 400 ngesimo esiphuthumayo ngaphandle kokuboleka futhi abantu baseMelika abacishe babe yizigidi ezingama-40 bathola izitembu zokudla ukuze badle. U-17% wezingane zaseMelika zihlala ebuphofini.
Ukukhathazeka ngokuthi ukukhula kwezomnotho okucatshangelwayo kuqukethwe ezingeni eliphakeme kanye nasezimakethe zezezimali, kungaba yisizathu enkolelweni kaSihlalo weFed uJerome Powell yokuthi umnotho wase-USA ungadinga umfutho wezimali ngendlela yokwehla kwenzalo eyehliswe ngoJulayi. Ngesikhathi esanda kufakaza eCapitol Hill wagcizelela: ukukhathazeka kwezohwebo emhlabeni wonke, ukukhula okubuthakathaka kwezokukhiqiza e-USA, ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphansi kanye ne-GDP ebuthakathaka njengezizathu zokwehlisa izinga lenzalo engaphansi kwezinga lamanje elingu-2.5%. Amazwi akhe abangele ukuthi kuqhubeke kuthengiswe inani ledola laseMelika kulo lonke leli bhodi.
Masonto onke inkomba yedola, i-DXY, yehle cishe ngo -0.49%, i-USD / i-JPY phansi -0.52% ne-USD / CHF phansi -0.76%. Kokubili i-EUR / USD ne-GBP / USD kukhuphuke ngo-0.40% ngesonto kuze kube nguJulayi 12, kuyilapho i-AUD / USD inyuke ngo-0.63%. Abahlaziyi be-FX nabahwebi bazoqapha ngokucophelela imizwa yamadola aseMelika kuleli sonto ukuthola obunye ubufakazi bokuthi i-FOMC izokwehlisa izinga eliphakeme ngo-0.25% emhlanganweni wabo kaJulayi 30-31.
Ngaphandle kwedatha yokuthengisa okuthuthukile yakamuva ye-USA kanye nezibalo zokukhiqiza zezimboni / zokukhiqiza ezizoshicilelwa ngoLwesibili ngoJulayi 16, kuyisonto elithule kakhulu lemicimbi yekhalenda lezomnotho nedatha eqonde ngqo e-USA. Oomongameli nabaphathi abaningi beFederal Reserve kulindeleke ukuthi bethule izinkulumo futhi lokhu kuzohlolisiswa kakhulu ngenxa yenkolelo yokuthi i-FOMC manje isethubeni lokwehlisa izinga ekupheleni kukaJulayi.
NgoMsombuluko ngoJulayi 22 kuhlelwe ukuthi kube usuku iqembu laseTory eliveza ngalo isinqumo sokuvota ngamalungu abo ukukhetha umholi wabo olandelayo kanye noNdunankulu wase-UK Amathuba okuba yisibalo esihlukanisayo sikaBoris Johnson onqoba ivoti. Ngesikhathi kwakhiwa kuleli sonto ukuqagela okuzungezile kungakhuphuka, njengoba abathengisi bezimakethe zeFX beqala ukuzibekelela umphumela. Ukucabanga ukuthi uJohnson akadlali kubavoti babo abangakwesokudla ngokusongela ukuphuma kwe-no-deal ngo-Okthoba 31, lapho-ke izibikezelo zenani le-GBP zibukeka zimbi.
Uma kwenzeka kuphuma izivumelwano abahlaziyi abathile emabhange okutshalwa kwezimali babikezela ukulingana kwe-GBP ne-euro nedola laseMelika kungakhathalekile ukuthi yikuphi ukulungiswa kwenqubomgomo yezimali yi-ECB ne-FOMC, njengoba iBoE nayo kungenzeka yehlise amanani okuvikela noma iyiphi i-Brexit ezayo ukwehla kwamandla omnotho. Imicimbi yekhalenda yezomnotho yase-UK kuleli sonto ifaka phakathi: idatha yokuqashwa nokungasebenzi, ukufunda kwe-CPI kwakamuva, izibalo zokuboleka kukahulumeni nokuthengiswa kwezitolo. Konke ukuphrinta kwedatha kungashintsha inani le-GDP uma amamethrikhi ephuthelwa noma eshaya izibikezelo nganoma yiliphi ibanga.
Izindaba ze-Eurozone kuleli sonto ikakhulukazi zigxile kumanani we-CPI kanye nokufundwa kwemizwa eyahlukahlukene yeZew. Uma isibalo sokwehla kwamandla emali singena kusibikezelo seReuters sokukhula kuka-1.1% kweYoY ngenkathi idatha ishicilelwa ngoLwesithathu ngoJulayi 17th ngo-10.00am, ukuqagela kungakhuphula ukuthi i-ECB inenhlanhla nesizathu sokwehlisa izinga lenzalo ukuze kukhuthazwe ukukhula kubloc. Ngakho-ke, inani le-euro lingashintsha ngokuya ngenani lokwehla kwamandla emali.
Eminye imicimbi yekhalenda evelele kuleli sonto ifaka i-CPI yaseCanada okulindeleke ukuthi yehlele ku-2.0% isuka ku-2.4% YoY lapho isibalo sivezwa ngoLwesithathu ntambama, ukufundwa okungakhuphula ukuqagela kokuthi iBhange laseCanada lingehlisa inzalo enkulu. I-CPI yaseJapan kulindeleke ukuthi ifike ku-0.7% YoY engaphinda (iphinde futhi) ifake ukungabaza ngokusebenza kwezinyathelo zokukhula nemicibisholo ye-Abenomics yemicibisholo emine.
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