Eph 24 • Ukuthengiswa Kwama-Forex Izihloko, Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-3415 • Amazwana Off kokuthi Kuyini ukuguquguquka, ungalungisa kanjani isu lakho lokuhweba kukho futhi lingaba nomthelela kanjani emiphumeleni yakho yokuhweba?
Akumangazi ukuthi iningi labathengisi be-FX abadayisi, bayehluleka ukuvuma umthelela wokuguquguquka okungaba nawo emiphumeleni yabo yokuhweba. Isihloko, njengento eyenzeka kanye nomthelela oqondile esingaba nawo emgqeni wakho oyinhloko, akukaze kukhulunywe ngaso ngokugcwele ezihlokweni, noma ezinkundleni zokuhweba. Ireferensi yezikhathi ezithile kuphela, edlulayo, eyenziwayo. Okuwukungamela okukhulu, okusekelwe eqinisweni lokuthi (njengesihloko), kungenye yezinto ezingaqondwa kahle nezinganakwa, ezihilelekile ekuhwebeni zonke izimakethe, hhayi nje i-FX.
Incazelo yokuntengantenga kungaba “isilinganiso sezibalo sokusatshalaliswa kwembuyiselo yanoma yikuphi ukuphepha okunikeziwe, noma inkomba yemakethe”. Ngokujwayelekile; uma kukhuphuka ukuguquguquka nganoma yisiphi isikhathi, ukuphepha kubhekwa njengokuyingozi. Ukuguquguquka kungalinganiswa kusetshenziswa amamodeli ajwayelekile okuchezuka, noma umehluko phakathi kwembuyiselo evela ekuvikelekeni okufanayo, noma inkomba yemakethe. Ukuguquguquka okuphakeme kuvame ukuhlotshaniswa nokushintshashintsha okukhulu, okungenzeka kunoma yiluphi uhlangothi. Isibonelo, uma ipheya ye-FX ikhuphuka futhi noma yehla ngephesenti elingaphezu kweyodwa phakathi neseshini yosuku, ingase ifakwe kusigaba njengemakethe “eguquguqukayo”.
Sekukonke ukuntengantenga kwezimakethe ezimakethe zezabelo ze-USA, kungabonwa ngalokho okubizwa ngokuthi “i-Volatility Index”. I-VIX idalwe i-Chicago Board Options Exchange, isetshenziswa njengesilinganiso sokulinganisa ukuntengantenga okulindelekile kwezinsuku ezingamashumi amathathu zemakethe yamasheya yase-US futhi isuselwa ezintengo zekhowuthi zesikhathi sangempela ze-SPX 500, izinketho zokufona nokubeka. I-VIX ngokuyisisekelo iyigeji elula yokubheja kwekusasa abatshalizimali nabahwebi abakwenzayo, ekuqondeni kwezimakethe, noma izibambiso ngazinye. Ukufundwa okuphezulu ku-VIX kusho imakethe enobungozi.
Azikho izinkomba zobuchwepheshe ezidume kakhulu, ezitholakala ezisekelweni ezifana ne-MetaTrader MT4, eziklanywe ngokukhethekile ngesihloko sokuntengantenga emqondweni. Amabhendi e-Bollinger, Inkomba Yesiteshi Sezimpahla kanye ne-Average True Range, yizinkomba zobuchwepheshe ezingabonisa izinguquko zokuguquguquka, kodwa azikho eziklanyelwe ngokuqondile ukukhiqiza imethrikhi yokuguquguquka. I-RVI (Relative Volatility Index) idalwe ukuze ibonise isiqondiso lapho ukuguquguquka kwentengo kushintsha khona. Nokho, ayitholakali kabanzi futhi isici esiyinhloko se-RVI ukuthi ivele iqinisekise ezinye izimpawu zezinkomba ezinyakazayo (RSI, MAСD, Stochastic nezinye) ngaphandle kokuziphindaphinda. Kunamawijethi athile obunikazi abanye abadayisi abawanikezayo, angabonisa izinguquko zokuntengantenga, lezi azitholakali njengezinkomba, zizimele zodwa, amathuluzi ezibalo.
Ukuntuleka kokuguquguquka (njengesenzakalo) okunomthelela ku-FX, muva nje kuboniswe ngokuwa ngamapheya amahle, okuhlobene ngokuqondile nokuwa okuphawulekayo komsebenzi wokuhweba ngamapheya afana ne-GBP/USD. Ukwehla kwesenzo nokunyakaza kwentengo yamapheya e-GBP, bekuhlobene ngokuqondile neholide lebhange lePhasika kanye nekhefu lasePhalamende lase-UK. Izimakethe eziningi ze-FX zivaliwe ngesikhathi seholide lasebhange ngoMsombuluko nangoLwesihlanu, kuyilapho amalungu ePhalamende ase-UK ethathe amaholide amasonto amabili. Ngesikhathi sabo samaholide, isihloko se-Brexit sasuswa kakhulu ezihlokweni zemidiya ezivamile, njengoba kwakuyizici ezibalulekile ezithinta intengo ye-sterling, ngokumelene nontanga bayo.
Ngesikhathi sekhefu, isenzo samanani entengo, esivame ukuboniswa ezinyangeni ezisanda kwedlula, njengoba i-UK ibhekane nemiphetho ehlukahlukene yewa maqondana ne-Brexit, ibingasabonakali kumafreyimu wesikhathi ahlukahlukene. Ngokwengxenye enkulu, amapheya amaningi amahle ahweba emaceleni phakathi namasonto lapho amalungu ePhalamende ase-UK ayengasabonakali, noma ezwakala. Kalula nje; ukuhweba okucatshangelwayo ku-sterling kwehle kakhulu, ngoba i-Brexit njengesihloko, yawa ku-radar. Izilinganiso ezehlukene ziphakamise ukuthi ukuntengantenga kwe-sterling kwakucishe kube ngama-50% emazingeni angaphambi kwekhefu lePhalamende. Amapheya afana ne-EUR/GBP kanye ne-GBP/USD ahweba ngokuqinile, ikakhulukazi emaceleni, amabanga, isikhathi esicishe sibe ngamaviki amabili. Kodwa ngokushesha nje lapho amaLungu ePhalamende ase-UK ebuyela emahhovisi awo e-Westminster, i-Brexit yabuyela ku-ajenda yemithombo yezindaba evamile yezezimali.
Ukuqagela ku-Sterling kwanda ngokushesha futhi intengo yashaywa ngobudlova ebangeni elibanzi, i-oscillating phakathi kwezimo ze-bullish kanye ne-bearish, ekugcineni yaphahlazeka nge-S3, ngoLwesibili 23 April, njengoba izindaba zaqubuka mayelana nokuntuleka kwenqubekelaphambili ezingxoxweni phakathi kwamaqembu amabili ezombusazwe amakhulu e-UK. Kungazelelwe, naphezu kokuhlehla kuSuku Lomhlaba Owayekhona ngaphambi kwekhefu, ukuguquguquka okuhle, umsebenzi namathuba kwabuyela ku-radar. Kubalulekile kubathengisi be-FX ukuthi bangaboni nje kuphela ukuthi kuyini ukuguquguquka nokuthi kungani kungase kukhule, kodwa futhi, uma kungenzeka kakhulu kwenzeke. Kungase kukhuphuke kakhulu ngenxa yomcimbi wezindaba ezisematheni, umcimbi wezepolitiki wasekhaya, noma ngenxa yesimo esiqhubekayo esishintsha kakhulu. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi siyini isizathu, kuyisenzakalo esidinga ukunakwa nokuhlonishwa okwengeziwe okuvela kubathengisi be-FX, kunokuba ngokuvamile kunikezwa.
« Idola lase-Aussie liyaphahlazeka uma liqhathaniswa nontanga yalo, njengoba ukwehla kwamandla emali kwehla kakhulu, amamethrikhi e-IFO yaseJalimane aphuthelwa yizibikezelo, okwengeza ukwesaba ukuthi iJalimane ingase ingene enzimeni yomnotho. Ukwehla kwamadola ase-Australasia, idola laseMelika liyakhuphuka, amasheya aseMelika asuka kumarekhodi aphezulu. »
Kuyini ukuguquguquka, ungalungisa kanjani isu lakho lokuhweba kukho futhi lingaba nomthelela kanjani emiphumeleni yakho yokuhweba?
Eph 24 • Ukuthengiswa Kwama-Forex Izihloko, Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-3415 • Amazwana Off kokuthi Kuyini ukuguquguquka, ungalungisa kanjani isu lakho lokuhweba kukho futhi lingaba nomthelela kanjani emiphumeleni yakho yokuhweba?
Akumangazi ukuthi iningi labathengisi be-FX abadayisi, bayehluleka ukuvuma umthelela wokuguquguquka okungaba nawo emiphumeleni yabo yokuhweba. Isihloko, njengento eyenzeka kanye nomthelela oqondile esingaba nawo emgqeni wakho oyinhloko, akukaze kukhulunywe ngaso ngokugcwele ezihlokweni, noma ezinkundleni zokuhweba. Ireferensi yezikhathi ezithile kuphela, edlulayo, eyenziwayo. Okuwukungamela okukhulu, okusekelwe eqinisweni lokuthi (njengesihloko), kungenye yezinto ezingaqondwa kahle nezinganakwa, ezihilelekile ekuhwebeni zonke izimakethe, hhayi nje i-FX.
Incazelo yokuntengantenga kungaba “isilinganiso sezibalo sokusatshalaliswa kwembuyiselo yanoma yikuphi ukuphepha okunikeziwe, noma inkomba yemakethe”. Ngokujwayelekile; uma kukhuphuka ukuguquguquka nganoma yisiphi isikhathi, ukuphepha kubhekwa njengokuyingozi. Ukuguquguquka kungalinganiswa kusetshenziswa amamodeli ajwayelekile okuchezuka, noma umehluko phakathi kwembuyiselo evela ekuvikelekeni okufanayo, noma inkomba yemakethe. Ukuguquguquka okuphakeme kuvame ukuhlotshaniswa nokushintshashintsha okukhulu, okungenzeka kunoma yiluphi uhlangothi. Isibonelo, uma ipheya ye-FX ikhuphuka futhi noma yehla ngephesenti elingaphezu kweyodwa phakathi neseshini yosuku, ingase ifakwe kusigaba njengemakethe “eguquguqukayo”.
Sekukonke ukuntengantenga kwezimakethe ezimakethe zezabelo ze-USA, kungabonwa ngalokho okubizwa ngokuthi “i-Volatility Index”. I-VIX idalwe i-Chicago Board Options Exchange, isetshenziswa njengesilinganiso sokulinganisa ukuntengantenga okulindelekile kwezinsuku ezingamashumi amathathu zemakethe yamasheya yase-US futhi isuselwa ezintengo zekhowuthi zesikhathi sangempela ze-SPX 500, izinketho zokufona nokubeka. I-VIX ngokuyisisekelo iyigeji elula yokubheja kwekusasa abatshalizimali nabahwebi abakwenzayo, ekuqondeni kwezimakethe, noma izibambiso ngazinye. Ukufundwa okuphezulu ku-VIX kusho imakethe enobungozi.
Azikho izinkomba zobuchwepheshe ezidume kakhulu, ezitholakala ezisekelweni ezifana ne-MetaTrader MT4, eziklanywe ngokukhethekile ngesihloko sokuntengantenga emqondweni. Amabhendi e-Bollinger, Inkomba Yesiteshi Sezimpahla kanye ne-Average True Range, yizinkomba zobuchwepheshe ezingabonisa izinguquko zokuguquguquka, kodwa azikho eziklanyelwe ngokuqondile ukukhiqiza imethrikhi yokuguquguquka. I-RVI (Relative Volatility Index) idalwe ukuze ibonise isiqondiso lapho ukuguquguquka kwentengo kushintsha khona. Nokho, ayitholakali kabanzi futhi isici esiyinhloko se-RVI ukuthi ivele iqinisekise ezinye izimpawu zezinkomba ezinyakazayo (RSI, MAСD, Stochastic nezinye) ngaphandle kokuziphindaphinda. Kunamawijethi athile obunikazi abanye abadayisi abawanikezayo, angabonisa izinguquko zokuntengantenga, lezi azitholakali njengezinkomba, zizimele zodwa, amathuluzi ezibalo.
Ukuntuleka kokuguquguquka (njengesenzakalo) okunomthelela ku-FX, muva nje kuboniswe ngokuwa ngamapheya amahle, okuhlobene ngokuqondile nokuwa okuphawulekayo komsebenzi wokuhweba ngamapheya afana ne-GBP/USD. Ukwehla kwesenzo nokunyakaza kwentengo yamapheya e-GBP, bekuhlobene ngokuqondile neholide lebhange lePhasika kanye nekhefu lasePhalamende lase-UK. Izimakethe eziningi ze-FX zivaliwe ngesikhathi seholide lasebhange ngoMsombuluko nangoLwesihlanu, kuyilapho amalungu ePhalamende ase-UK ethathe amaholide amasonto amabili. Ngesikhathi sabo samaholide, isihloko se-Brexit sasuswa kakhulu ezihlokweni zemidiya ezivamile, njengoba kwakuyizici ezibalulekile ezithinta intengo ye-sterling, ngokumelene nontanga bayo.
Ngesikhathi sekhefu, isenzo samanani entengo, esivame ukuboniswa ezinyangeni ezisanda kwedlula, njengoba i-UK ibhekane nemiphetho ehlukahlukene yewa maqondana ne-Brexit, ibingasabonakali kumafreyimu wesikhathi ahlukahlukene. Ngokwengxenye enkulu, amapheya amaningi amahle ahweba emaceleni phakathi namasonto lapho amalungu ePhalamende ase-UK ayengasabonakali, noma ezwakala. Kalula nje; ukuhweba okucatshangelwayo ku-sterling kwehle kakhulu, ngoba i-Brexit njengesihloko, yawa ku-radar. Izilinganiso ezehlukene ziphakamise ukuthi ukuntengantenga kwe-sterling kwakucishe kube ngama-50% emazingeni angaphambi kwekhefu lePhalamende. Amapheya afana ne-EUR/GBP kanye ne-GBP/USD ahweba ngokuqinile, ikakhulukazi emaceleni, amabanga, isikhathi esicishe sibe ngamaviki amabili. Kodwa ngokushesha nje lapho amaLungu ePhalamende ase-UK ebuyela emahhovisi awo e-Westminster, i-Brexit yabuyela ku-ajenda yemithombo yezindaba evamile yezezimali.
Ukuqagela ku-Sterling kwanda ngokushesha futhi intengo yashaywa ngobudlova ebangeni elibanzi, i-oscillating phakathi kwezimo ze-bullish kanye ne-bearish, ekugcineni yaphahlazeka nge-S3, ngoLwesibili 23 April, njengoba izindaba zaqubuka mayelana nokuntuleka kwenqubekelaphambili ezingxoxweni phakathi kwamaqembu amabili ezombusazwe amakhulu e-UK. Kungazelelwe, naphezu kokuhlehla kuSuku Lomhlaba Owayekhona ngaphambi kwekhefu, ukuguquguquka okuhle, umsebenzi namathuba kwabuyela ku-radar. Kubalulekile kubathengisi be-FX ukuthi bangaboni nje kuphela ukuthi kuyini ukuguquguquka nokuthi kungani kungase kukhule, kodwa futhi, uma kungenzeka kakhulu kwenzeke. Kungase kukhuphuke kakhulu ngenxa yomcimbi wezindaba ezisematheni, umcimbi wezepolitiki wasekhaya, noma ngenxa yesimo esiqhubekayo esishintsha kakhulu. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi siyini isizathu, kuyisenzakalo esidinga ukunakwa nokuhlonishwa okwengeziwe okuvela kubathengisi be-FX, kunokuba ngokuvamile kunikezwa.
« Idola lase-Aussie liyaphahlazeka uma liqhathaniswa nontanga yalo, njengoba ukwehla kwamandla emali kwehla kakhulu, amamethrikhi e-IFO yaseJalimane aphuthelwa yizibikezelo, okwengeza ukwesaba ukuthi iJalimane ingase ingene enzimeni yomnotho. Ukwehla kwamadola ase-Australasia, idola laseMelika liyakhuphuka, amasheya aseMelika asuka kumarekhodi aphezulu. »