I-WEEKLY MARKET SNAPSHOT 27 / 11-01 / 12 | Ama-GDP e: Canada, i-USA, iFrance, i-Italy neSwitzerland azogxila kakhulu esontweni elizayo
Njengoba i-FOMC kufanele ihlangane ngoDisemba, ukunquma ngesinyathelo esilandelayo senzalo yomnotho wase-USA, abathengisi nabahlaziyi abaningi beFX bazogxila kwisibalo sakamuva se-USA GDP lapho sishicilelwa ngoLwesithathu. Izihlalo zeFed zingazizwa zinesibindi sokuqala inqubomgomo yemali ye-hawkish ngonyaka we-2018, uma ngabe i-GDP (eyenziwa ngonyaka) ingena (noma isondele) ekukhuleni kwesibikezelo esingu-3.4%, okusuka ekufundweni kwangaphambilini okungu-3%. Ukukhula kweNyakatho Melika kubukeka kwakhiwe ezisekelweni eziqinile, njengoba umnotho waseCanada nawo ubuletha izibalo ezimangalisayo ze-GDP ezinyangeni ezedlule. Ekukhuleni kuka-4.5% njengamanje iletha inani eliholayo le-GDP kunoma yimuphi umnotho othuthukile, izinga lokungasebenzi kwalo lizinzile futhi ukwehla kwamandla emali kuyalawulwa, kanti ukufundwa kwedatha okunzima kakhulu kufinyelela imigomo.
Amazwe amaningana aseYurophu nawo ashicilela izibalo zawo zakamuva ze-GDP kuleli sonto elizayo. IFrance ne-Italy benze ushintsho olukhulu ngonyaka owedlule noma kunjalo, iGDP yaseFrance njengamanje iku-2.2% YoY, kanti eyase-Italy iku-1.8%, okuyisibambiso esikhulu lapho la mazwe womabili abuyiselwa khona, ngokwesibonelo, ngo-2014. ukungasebenzi okuphezulu esifundeni se-Eurozone, nokuthi izinga lokungasebenzi ligxile kakhulu emkhakheni wentsha yamazwe womabili, abenzi bomthetho base-Italy nabaseFrance kufanele bagweme ukwakha ukungazethembi.
UMsombuluko iqala isonto ngemininingwane yokuthengisa yaseJalimane yokuthengisa, okwamanje ukukhula kuku-4.1% YoY, ukulindela ukuthi lesi sibalo sigcinwe. Njengokwesiko ngoMsombuluko, kuzoshicilelwa amazinga amasha ediphozithi aseSwitzerland Bank, amamethrikhi angenza intengo ye-Swiss franc njengempahla ephephile. Kusuka eU.SA kuzoshicilelwa imininingwane emisha yokuthengiswa kwekhaya, kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle isikhathi sonyaka esingu -7.8% MoM wango-Okthoba.
NgoLwesibili iqala ngolunye ucwaningo lwentengo yezindlu oluvela e-UK, inkomba yamanani entengo kazwelonke njengamanje ikhula ngo-2.5% YoY, lesi sibalo kulindeleke ukuthi sigcinwe, noma sikhuphuke. Umbono we-OECD nge-Eurozone uzokhishwa, kuzoshicilelwa incwadi ebhekwe ngokucophelela, ukufundwa kokuzethemba kwabathengi baseGfK. Njengoba kuzobhekwana nokuvulwa kwezimakethe zase-USA, kuzodalulwa ibhalansi yamuva yokuhwebelana kwezimpahla ezisezingeni eliphezulu, njengoba iningi lalawo manani ase-USA, kungenzeka kushode imali, isibikezelo sokwehla kuya ku- $ 65.5b ngo-Okthoba. Izodilivwa amamethrikhi wedatha yamanani entengo yendlu yanyanga zonke ye-Case-Shiller, ukufundwa okuhlanganisiwe kwamadolobha ahamba phambili angama-20 kubhekwa ngokucophelela, kulindeleke ukuthi kuhlale kuzungeze isibalo sokukhula kwentengo yendlu cishe ngo-5.92%.
Ukufundwa kokuzethemba komthengi webhodi yenkomfa kuzoshicilelwa, kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle ngokulingene kuze kufike ku-124 kusuka ku-125.9, leli nani elihlonishwa kakhulu lihlala laziwa nganoma ikuphi ukwehluka. Umuntu oqokwe nguTrump ukuba angene esikhundleni sika-Yellen njengoSihlalo weFed, uMnu Powell, uzovela phambi kwekomidi lokulalelwa kwezigele. Umphathi webhange elikhulu laseCanada, uPoloz nephini lakhe, bazoba nesithangami nabezindaba. Imicimbi yosuku enomthelela omkhulu kwezomnotho ivala ngezibalo zakamuva zokuhweba zaseJapan; kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale isondele ekukhuleni kwamanje kwe-2.2% yeYoY.
On NgoLwesithathu isibalo sakamuva se-GDP yaseFrance sizokwembulwa, njengamanje ku-2.2% YoY lokhu kufundelwa kulindeleke ukuthi kugcinwe, noma kuthuthukiswe. Amamethrikhi amaningi ase-UK azoshicilelwa, kufaka phakathi ukuvunyelwa kwabathengi kanye nokuvunyelwa kwempahla. Okwe-Eurozone sithola idatha yakamuva kaNovemba ngokufundwa kwemizwa ehlukahlukene, ikakhulukazi ukufundwa kokuzethemba komthengi okuyinhloko okuzobhekwa kakhulu. I-CPI yaseJalimane izokwembulwa, njengamanje eku-1.6% YoY, abahlaziyi bazohlola lesi sibalo maqondana ne-ECB nezinhloso zayo zenqubomgomo yezimali; ukuphoqa ukwehla kwamandla emali ngokungaguquguquki kuye enhlosweni engu-2%. Njengoba izimakethe zase-US zivulwa, izibalo zakamuva ze-GDP zizovezwa, ukwenziwa konyaka kube kukwanda okusuka ku-3.0% kuye ku-3.4%. Kamuva ntambama uJanet Yellen uzobonakala okokugcina phambi kwesigungu sezomnotho esihlangene eCongress. Kusalindwe ukuthengiswa kwekhaya e-USA kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke ngo-1.0% MoM. Ntambama imininingwane yezomnotho yosuku ivalwa ngokushicilelwa kwemininingwane eyahlukahlukene yaseJapan.
NgoLwesine iqala ngokuhlinzekwa okuphezulu kwemininingwane yase-Australia, okuvelele kakhulu kuyo yimikhakha ezimele yezikweletu kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemali, ngenkathi imininingwane nedatha yokuzethemba kwezebhizinisi phakathi kwabalingani bebhizinisi abalulekile baseNew Zealand nase-Australia nayo izolethwa. Idatha yakamuva ye-PMI yamaShayina yokukhiqiza izodalulwa, njengokuphikisana ngokuthi iyinjini yokukhula komkhiqizo emhlabeni, leli nani lihlale lihlolisiswa. Njengoba izimakethe zase-Europe ziqala ukulungiselela ukuvula izibalo ze-Swiss GDP ngekota yakamuva futhi ngonyaka kuzodalulwa, njengamanje zombili lezi zibalo zingama-0.3% kanti ukubikezela kungokwehluka okuncane kulesi sibalo. Ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi eGermany kulindeleke ukuthi kuhlale ku-5.6%, kanti izinga lokungasebenzi kwabantu ku-Eurozone kulindeleke ukuthi lihlale ku-8.9%. I-Eurozone CPI ilindeleke ukuthi ihlale ku-1.4% YoY. Idatha yesihlenga yemininingwane yase-USA ishicilelwa ngesikhathi esiseduze; ukusetshenziswa komuntu siqu nokusetshenziswa, kanye nenombolo eyinhloko ye-PCE YoY izovezwa, lokhu kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke kukhula ngo-1.3%. Kuthe kusihlwa uchungechunge olubalulekile lwedatha lushicilelwa yizinhlangano ezahlukahlukene zaseJapan, okuvelele kakhulu kuyo yiCPI, esala emuva njengenye yezindawo eziphansi kunazo zonke ezweni elihola phambili le-G10, ekukhuleni kuka-0.7% kweYoY.
On Friday sithola iqoqo elincane lokufundwa kokukhiqizwa kweMarkit PMI kweminotho eminingi eholayo yaseYurophu kanye ne-Eurozone njengenhlangano. IGDP yase-Italy kulindeleke ukuthi igcine ukukhula kwayo okusha okungu-1.8%. Umnotho waseCanada uzogxila kakhulu ngoLwesihlanu njengoba izibalo zakamuva ze-GDP zishicilelwa, zifakwa ngonyaka isibalo esiku-4.5% esihlaba umxhwele kakhulu kuze kube manje, lokhu kulindeleke ukuthi kugcinwe. Ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi eCanada kulindeleke ukuthi kuhlale ku-6.3%, kanti i-PMI yakamuva yokukhiqiza kulindeleke ukuthi igcine izinga layo lamanje lama-54.3. Ukufundwa kwe-ISM kuhlonishwa kakhulu e-USA phakathi komphakathi wabahlaziyi, kuningi okushicilelwa ntambama e-USA, kufaka phakathi ukufundwa okubucayi kokukhiqizwa kwe-ISM, okwamanje ku-58.7, isibikezelo esincane ekufundweni kukaNovemba kuya ku-58.3 kulindeleke.
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