ISITHOMBE SOKUMAKethwa KWESONTO 26/2 - 2/3 | Isonto lezibalo ze-GDP zaseCanada, e-USA, eFrance nase-Italy, zingakhombisa amandla okukhula komhlaba osentshonalanga, ngenkathi ama-CPI ahlukahlukene ezokwembula izinga lezingcindezi zokwehla kwamandla emali

UFebhu 23 • Ingabe i-Trend Still Friend Yakho • Ukubukwa okungu-7591 • Amazwana Off ku-WEEKLY MARKET SNAPSHOT 26/2 - 2/3 | Isonto lezibalo ze-GDP zaseCanada, e-USA, eFrance nase-Italy, zingakhombisa amandla okukhula komhlaba osentshonalanga, ngenkathi ama-CPI ahlukahlukene ezokwembula izinga lezingcindezi zokwehla kwamandla emali

Ama-GDP aseNyakatho Melika azogxila kakhulu phakathi nesonto, iCanada njengamanje ikhiqiza izibalo ezinhle kakhulu zokukhula futhi ngo-3.5% wokukhula, umnotho waseCanada ungaphezulu kwamashadi okukhula, eNtshonalanga Nenkabazwe. I-USA njengamanje iphrinta ukukhula kwe-GDP okungu-2.6% kanti osomnotho babikezela ukuthi izibalo zamazwe womabili zizogcinwa, noma zithuthukiswe. Noma ikuphi ukuwa kungabona ukuthi inani lamadola afanele asekhaya libe ngaphansi kwengcindezi.

Ukufundwa okuhlukahlukene kwe-ISM komnotho wase-USA kuzokhombisa amandla asekela amandla wezomnotho okuthiwa yi-FOMC okukhulunywe ngawo, emaminithini abo ashicilelwe ngoLwesithathu Feb. 21. Ukufundwa okuhlukahlukene kwemali engenayo nokusetshenziswayo kuzokwembulwa yi-BLS emnothweni wase-USA, ngenkathi iBhodi Yezingqungquthela kanye nokufundwa kokuzethemba kwabathengi kwiyunivesithi yaseMichigan, kuzophinda kukhombise izinga lokuthemba phakathi kwabantu base-US.

Ukukhishwa komthelela omkhulu waseYurophu kufaka phakathi: i-GDP yaseSwitzerland, eyaseFrance neyase-Italy, kanye nokufundwa kwe-CPI kweJalimane ne-Eurozone. Abahlaziyi kanye nabatshalizimali bazobe bebheke ezinhlotsheni ezingaguquguquki kulo lonke ibhodi, ukunikeza ubufakazi bokuthuthuka kwezomnotho okukodwa kwemali.

UMsombuluko kuqala ngemiphumela yokuthengwa kwamabhondi okuqondile eJapane, okubhekwe ngokucophelela maqondana nenani le-yen, futhi naseJapan sithola inkomba yakamuva kanye nemininingwane eqondane nalokho. Lapho nje sekuvulwe izimakethe zaseYurophu kusanda kushicilelwa idatha yamadiphozithi yasebhange yaseSwitzerland, izibalo zakamuva ze-UK BoE zemalimboleko yokuthengwa kwekhaya zibhekwa ngeso elibukhali ukuthola izimpawu zokuthi abathengi bafinyelela amandla abo nokuzethemba kwabo, ukuze babolekise ngemali eyanda njalo.

Njengoba ukunakwa kushintshela e-USA, idatha entsha yokuthengiswa kwekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi ibuye, ngemuva kokuwa kwesizini. IDallas neChicago Feds bazohlinzeka ngemisebenzi yabo yakamuva yomsebenzi, kanti iFed's Bullard izokwethula inkulumo ngomgomo wezimali. Umgcinimafa wase-USA uzothengisa izikweletu zomgcinimafa ezinyangeni ezi-3 nezingu-6, isihloko esishisayo esinikezwe cishe ama- $ 260 billion athengiswe phakathi nesonto eliphela ngoLwesihlanu mhlaka 23 Feb. Idatha yaseNew Zealand iseradar kusihlwa; ukuthekelisa, ukungenisa ngaphakathi, ibhalansi yezohwebo (amamethrikhi wanyanga zonke nonyaka), kungenza inani le-kiwi (NZD) uma izibalo zingaphuthelwa, noma zishaye izibikezelo.

On NgoLwesibili Ukuthengisa okudayisa kwaseJalimane kungumhlahlandlela wokuqala wobuhle bamamethrikhi wedatha yemizwa ethambile evela e-Eurozone kufaka phakathi: umthengi, izimboni, izinsizakalo kanye nokuzethemba kwezomnotho. I-CPI yaseJalimane kulindeleke ukuthi isondele ezingeni lamanje le-CPI ngo-1.6%, uWeidmann waseBundesbank uzokwethula inkulumo, ngokusebenza kwebhange elikhulu laseJalimane. Lapho nje izimakethe zase-US zivule isihlenga semininingwane, kufaka phakathi: ama-oda ezimpahla ezisezingeni eliphakeme neliqinile, uhlu lwezinto ezithengiswayo kanye nezitolo, kuzonikeza inkomba yokuzethemba kwabathengi nabamabhizinisi. Njengoba kuzofundwa ukuzethemba kwabathengi beBhodi Yenkomfa, kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke ngo-0.5 kukhuphuke kuye ku-126. Ukufundwa kwentengo ye-Case Shiller emadolobheni amakhulu angamashumi amabili e-USA nasezweni lonke kuzodalulwa, njengamanje ku-6.21% kuzwelonke, isibalo sizobukwa ngokucophelela, nganoma yiziphi izimpawu zokuntenga kwesakhiwo kwezomnotho.

IJapane ibuyile ekugxileni ngasekupheleni kwangoLwesibili kusihlwa, njengoba kushicilelwa izibalo zokuthengisa, izibalo zokukhiqizwa kwezimboni zizoqashwa ngeso elibukhali, njengezimpawu zokuthi izinkampani zezimboni zaseJapan zisasebenza.

NgoLwesithathu kuqala ngokukhishwa kwenkomba yamanani entengo yendlu yakamuva ye-UK, isibikezelo sokuhlala siseduze ne-3.2% YoY eshicilelwe ngoJanuwari. Ukuzethemba kwabathengi, ukuzethemba kwebhizinisi kanye nokufundwa kwe-barometer ye-Lloyds yebhizinisi, kungaletha ukuqonda ngesimo semizwa ese-UK kuyadedelwa ama-PMI amathathu e-China, noma ngabe ngaphandle kokuthi aphuthe noma ashaye isibikezelo ngebanga elithile, idatha yase-China okwamanje ayinamphumela omncane ezimakethe zeFX emhlabeni jikelele.

Njengoba kuvulwa izimakethe zase-Europe, i-GDP yaseFrance izobhekwa, okwamanje ku-2.4% kuzogcinwa kulondolozwa leli zinga lokukhula. Izinga labantu abangasebenzi eJalimane kufanele lihlale ku-5.3% orekhodwe ngoJanuwari, kanti isibalo se-CPI se-Eurozone kulindeleke ukuthi sihlale ku-1.3% YoY.

Izindaba zekhalenda lezomnotho ze-USA zigxila kakhulu ezibalweni zakamuva ze-GDP, i-QoQ eyenziwe ngonyaka. Ukufundwa kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke kube kufundwa okungu-2.6% okurekhodelwe i-Q3. Kusalindwe idatha yokuthengiswa kwekhaya laseMelika, kuzolandelwa inkomba yamanani entengo yendlu iCase Shiller eyashicilelwa ngosuku olwedlule, abahlaziyi bazokwazi ukuthuthukisa ukubuka konke ngesimo semakethe yezindlu yase-USA. UJerome Powell, ongusihlalo we-Fed osanda kufakwa, uzofakaza phambi kwekomidi lezinsizakalo zezezimali zeNdlu futhi njengokubonakala kwakhe kokuqala okukhulu yedwa, lokhu kusebenza kulindelwe ngokulangazela.

NgoLwesine idatha yofakazi evela eJapane ekhishwe esimisweni sase-Asia; izinqolobane ezisemthethweni, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto, ukukhiqizwa kwe-PMI nokuzethemba kwabathengi, ngenkathi isikhulu se-BOJ uMnu. Kataoka ezokwethula inkulumo. Izibalo ze-GDP zomnotho waseSwitzerland zizoshicilelwa, njengamanje ku-1.2% YoY ukubikezela ukuthi ukukhula kufanele kugcinwe kuleli zinga. Ukuthengisa nokuthengisa kanye ne-PMI yokukhiqiza yizindlela zokugcina zomnotho waseSwitzerland okhishwe ngalolo suku. Ama-PMI wokukhiqiza we: France, Italy, Germany kanye ne-Eurozone ebanzi azoletha inkomba yezisekelo okwakhelwe kuzo umfutho wokukhiqiza wakamuva. I-PMI yokukhiqiza yase-UK nayo izokhishwa, isisekelo sayo asizange sisebenze kanye nontanga baso baseYurophu.

I-ejensi yezibalo yase-UK i-ONS izodalula amazinga asezingeni lesikweletu sabathengi, ngenkathi imininingwane yokubolekwa kwempahla kanye nemininingwane yokunikezwa kwemali izolethwa. Kusuka e-Eurozone sizokwamukela idatha yakamuva kwi-GDP yase-Italy, isibikezelo sokuhlala siseduze nenani lamanje le-0.9% YoY. Izinga labantu abangasebenzi endaweni eyodwa ye-bloc kulindeleke ukuthi lihlale ku-8.7% ngoJanuwari.

Kusihlwa okumatasa kakhulu kwemininingwane yase-USA; imali yomuntu siqu kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemali, izimangalo ezingenamsebenzi, ukusetshenziswa kwemali yokwakha, iMarkit PMI yokukhiqiza, ukufundwa kwe-ISM kokukhiqiza, umsebenzi, ama-oda nezintengo ezikhokhelwe.

Kusihlwa iNew Zealand iyagxila; ngokuzethemba kwabathengi kanye nemvume yokwakha ekhishwa. IJapan izoletha iqoqo ledatha kufaka phakathi: isilinganiso sokungasebenzi (njengamanje esiku-2.8%), imali engenayo yomndeni iyonke kanye ne-CPI. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke kuye ku-1.5% kusuka ku-1.3%, okungadala inzalo kuma-yen, uma abahwebi be-FX behumusha umphumela njengowokukhuthaza i-yen, ngokususelwa ekutheni i-BOJ iba yi-hawkish maqondana nenqubomgomo yabo yezimali.

Friday iqala imicimbi yekhalenda yosuku ngemininingwane ye-QoQ yase-Italy ne-YoY GDP, njengamanje ku-1.6% YoY lesi sibalo kulindeleke ukuthi sihlale singashintshiwe. I-PMI yokwakha yase-UK izobhekwa ngeso elibukhali ku-50.2 ngoJanuwari njengoba ingaphezulu nje kwezinga lama-50, ngezansi lapho imboni (noma umkhakha) uthathwa njengowezomnotho.

Imininingwane yaseNyakatho Melika iqala ngesibalo sakamuva se-GDP yaseCanada, inyanga ngenyanga isibalo senyanga edlule besingu-0.4% kanti isibalo seYoY samanje siyi-3.5% ngoDisemba. Uchungechunge lwedatha futhi oluhlonishwa kakhulu lwanyanga zonke lwe-University of Michigan lokufundwa kwemizwa luyakhishwa, ngo-99.9 ngoJanuwari lokhu kufundwa kubhekwe kakhulu ngabahlaziyi, njengoba kunikezwe ifa elisungule amashumi eminyaka.

Amazwana zivaliwe.

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