I-WEEKLY MARKET SNAPSHOT 22 / 1-26 / 1 | Izibalo zokukhula kwe-GDP e-USA nase-UK zizocutshungulwa ngesonto elizayo, njengoba ne-ECB uma ihlangana ukuxoxa nokuthatha isinqumo ngamanani wenzalo ye-Eurozone

UJan 19 • Ingabe i-Trend Still Friend Yakho • Ukubukwa okungu-6611 • Amazwana Off ku-WEEKLY MARKET SNAPSHOT 22 / 1-26 / 1 | Izibalo zokukhula kwe-GDP e-USA nase-UK zizocutshungulwa ngesonto elizayo, njengoba ne-ECB uma ihlangana ukuxoxa nokuthatha isinqumo ngamazinga wenzalo ye-Eurozone

I-ECB izodalula isinqumo sayo sakamuva maqondana namazinga wenzalo, izinga eliphambili liku-0.00% futhi akukho ukulindela ukwenyuka. Kodwa-ke, ukulandelwa okuhambisana nomongameli we-ECB uMario Draghi kuzobhekwa ngokucophelela, kunikezwe imibhikisho yakamuva yezikhulu ezahlukahlukene ze-ECB eziphakamisa ukuthi; inani le-euro liphakeme kakhulu nokuthi uhlelo lwe-APP lungaqhubeka isikhathi eside kunalokho okushiwo ngaphambili. Ukukhula kwe-GDP yase-UK kuzobuye kugxilwe ngesonto elizayo, inani lonyaka kulindeleke ukuthi lihlale ku-1.7%, ukuwa kumanani wangaphambilini we-circa 2.5% kule minyaka edlule, okungeke kusolwe ku-Brexit, ngenxa yokuthi i-UK ayikaze ushiye i-EU okwamanje.

Ukugxila kuzoba sesibalweni se-GDP saminyaka yonke sase-USA ngesonto elizayo, kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle kusuka ku-3.2% kuye ku-3%, ukukhula okukhexisayo okungu-3% kungathathwa njengesinqumo sangaphambi kwesikhathi sobumongameli bonyaka wokuqala kaTrump, noma ngabe uzuze umfutho nokukhula kusuka Ukuphatha kuka-Obama? I-CPI yaseCanada isebenza njengamanje ku-2.1%, njengoba amanani asanda kukhushulwa afinyelela ku-1.25% lesi sibalo sizobhekwa kakhulu, njengoba kuzobonakala nezibalo ze-CPI zesikhathi esifushane kuya kwaphakathi, ukuthola ukuthi ngabe i-BOC mhlawumbe ilungile, noma ishesha kakhulu, ekukhuliseni amanani anolaka kulezi zinyanga eziyisishiyagalombili ezedlule.

UMsombuluko iqala isonto ngemfashini ethule ngemininingwane yokuthengisa yezitolo ze-condo futhi elula evela eJapane. Njengoba izimakethe zaseYurophu zivula amamethrikhi aseSwitzerland kumadiphozithi asebhange kanye nokunikezwa kwemali kuzokhishwa. Ukunakwa bese kuphendukela eNyakatho Melika; Izibalo zokuhweba zaseCanada ziyashicilelwa, njengenkomba yomsebenzi kazwelonke weChicago Fed. Ukuhlwanyelwa kwedatha yenkomba yokusebenza kwezinsizakalo zakamuva eNew Zealand iveziwe.

NgoLwesibili ekuseni esimisweni sase-Asia ibhange eliphakathi laseJapan i-BOJ izomemezela isinqumo sayo ngamanani wenzalo, isibikezelo esimangazayo sokubamba isilinganiso esingu -0.1%. I-BOJ izophinde ishicilele umbiko wayo wakamuva wokuhambisana nesinqumo, yomibili imicimbi ingabona umsebenzi owandisiwe ku-yen noma ngesikhathi sokukhishwa. IJapan ihlala ingundabuzekwayo ngokuthengiswa kwezitolo zaseTokyo, ukuthengiswa kwezitolo ezweni lonke, ama-oda wamathuluzi emishini kanye nayo yonke idatha yomsebenzi womkhakha konke okushicilelwe.

Kusuka e-UK sithola izibalo zakamuva zokuboleka zikahulumeni, ngenkathi inhlangano yezohwebo ye-CBI izoshicilela imininingwane yezindlela: ukuthengisa, ukuzethemba kanye nama-oda. Kushicilelwa izinhlolovo ezahlukahlukene ze-ZEW zeGerman ne-Eurozone, ezihlanganisa imizwa nokulindelwe, kuzofundwa futhi (ngoJanuwari) ukufundwa kokuzithemba kwabathengi kwe-Eurozone. Okuwukuphela kwezindaba ezibalulekile ezivela e-USA zihilela ukushicilelwa kokufundwa kwezinkomba zakamuva zeRichmond ngoJanuwari. Kuthi kusihlwa kukhishwe izibalo zamabhalansi ezentengiselwano zakamuva (insalela) yaseJapan, okuvame ukukhomba impilo yemikhakha yokukhiqiza nokuthumela yaseJapan.

On NgoLwesithathu Ekuseni kushicilelwa izibalo zezinkomba zentengo yokungenisa yaseJalimane, bese kugxilwa ngokushesha kuphendukela ekukhiqizeni iJapane i-PMI, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kuhanjiswa izinkomba ezihola phambili nezenzeka ngokulingana zaseJapan. Idatha yekhadi lesikweletu likaDisemba eNew Zealand ingaveza umsebenzi wokusetshenziswa kwesizini. Njengoba izimakethe zaseYurophu zivula isihlenga: sezinsizakalo, ezokukhiqiza kanye nama-PMIs ahlanganisiwe ashicilelwa i: Germany, France kanye ne-Eurozone ebanzi. Izibalo ezahlukahlukene zedatha yase-UK ezibandakanya ukuqashwa nokungasebenzi zizokhishwa ekuseni, ukukhula kwemali etholakalayo njengamanje kungu-2.3%, abahlaziyi bazolibhekisisa leli nani, ngenxa yokwehla kwamandla emali e-UK njengamanje okusebenza ku-3%.

Idatha yezomnotho yase-US iqala ngokufaka izicelo zamasonto onke zokubolekwa kwemali kanye nenkomba yakamuva yamanani ezindlu yanyanga zonke, phambilini eyayingu-0.5% isibalo sikaNovemba kulindeleke ukuthi sehlele ku-0.4%. Ama-PMI amaMarkit e-USA azodilivwa; izinsizakalo, ukuhlanganiswa kanye nokukhiqizwa, isibikezelo senzelwe ukukhiqiza ukuwela ku-55 kusuka ku-55.1. Ukuthengiswa kwamakhaya okukhona kulindeleke ukuthi kukhombise ukwehla (kwesizini) kuka--2.8% ngoDisemba, kusuka ekukhuleni kuka-5.6% ngoNovemba. Imicimbi yekhalenda yezomnotho ebalulekile yosuku iphela ngesibalo se-CPI YoY saseNew Zealand se-Q4 2017, okulindelwe kungoshintsho oluncane, kusukela kusilinganiso samanje sonyaka esingu-1.9%.

NgoLwesine iqala ngokugxila kwimininingwane yaseJalimane; ukufundwa okuhlukahlukene kwebhizinisi le-IFO nokufundwa kokuzethemba komthengi kwe-GfK. Amabhange ase-UK ashicilela amamethrikhi awo wakamuva kwimalimboleko yezindlu. I-ECB izodalula izinqumo zabo zakamuva zamazinga wenzalo, okulindelwe ukuthi inani elibalulekile lokuboleka lizohlala ku-0.00%, kuthi inani lediphozi libe ngu -0.4%.

Njengoba ukugxila kuphendukela kwimininingwane yokuthengisa emisha yaseNyakatho Melika Canada kuyashicilelwa, kanjalo ne-USA yezitolo nezitolo ezisezingeni eliphezulu, kanye nesibalo sebhalansi yezimpahla esithuthukile sakamuva; kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle ku- - $ 68.8b, kusukela ngoNovemba kufundwa - $ 69.7. NgoLwesine imibiko yakamuva yamasonto onke yase-USA engenamisebenzi kanye nemininingwane eqhubekayo yezimangalo ihlale ishicilelwa, isibalo sakamuva sanyanga zonke sokuthengiswa kwamakhaya sizophinde sikhishwe, isibalo sikaDisemba kulindeleke ukuthi sehle sifike ku -8.9%, sisuke ku-17.5%.

Ukugxila kusihlwa kuphendukela emnothweni waseJapan; I-CPI YoY kuze kube nguDisemba kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale cishe ku-0.6%, ngemuva nje kokukhishwa, kuzodalulwa imizuzu yomhlangano wakamuva wenqubomgomo yemali ye-BOJ.

Friday iyaqhubeka nedatha yaseJapan; idatha yokuthengwa kwezibopho ingaveza uhulumeni kanye ne-BOJ eqhubekayo inqubomgomo yezezimali neyezimali. Idatha ehlukahlukene yomthelela ophansi evela e-UK izoshicilelwa, ngaphambi kokuba isibalo sakamuva se-GDP sivezwe yi-ONS; kulindeleke ukuthi igcine isibalo samanje sokukhula sonyaka esingu-1.7%, kanti ikota yokugcina yonyaka wezi-2017 iza phakathi kuka-0.4% -0.5%. Iqoqo lemininingwane ye-inflation yaseCanada lishicilelwa, kufaka phakathi inani elibalulekile le-CPI, elibikezelwe ukuthi lizohlala ku-2.1% elizogxilwa maqondana ne-CAD, njengoba i-BOC isanda kukhuphula inani lenzalo laya ku-1.25%. Izibalo zaminyaka yonke ze-Q4 YoY GDP ze-USA kulindeleke ukuthi ziveze ukwehla kube ngu-3% kusuka ku-3.2%. Isonto liphela ngemininingwane yakamuva ye-Baker Hughes rig count, ethakazelisa kakhulu muva nje, ngenxa yokwenyuka kwentengo kawoyela we-WTI.

Amazwana zivaliwe.

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