ISIKHUNGO SOMAKHATHI WESONTO 19/2 - 23/2 | Isibalo sakamuva seGDP sokukhula kwe-UK kanye nokukhishwa kwemizuzu yokusetha isilinganiso se-FOMC kuzoba yimicimbi yekhalenda ebhekwe kakhulu phakathi nesonto elizayo
Umnotho wase-UK (ngokungangabazeki) ubambe kahle umthelela ongaba khona omubi weBrexit. Isibalo samanje sokukhula kweYoY singu-1.5% kanti kanti ukwehla kwezibalo eziphakathi kuka-2.7% -2.0% izwe ebelizibika ngo-2015/2016, i-Armageddon yezomnotho abaningi abayibikezela ngemuva kokuvota kwereferendamu, ayikenzeki. Kodwa-ke, njengoba isikhathi sifinyelela osukwini lokuphuma ngo-Mashi 2019, izinqumo zendawo nezokuhweba kufanele zenziwe izinkampani ezinkulu kanye nemizwa yabathengi nayo ingaqala ukuhlupheka, ngakho-ke ukukhula kungahle kube nzima ezinyangeni ezizayo. Singalindela ukusabela okuhle kakhulu uma isibalo se-1.5% sithuthukisiwe, abahlaziyi abaningi ababikezelayo. Isibalo seGDP seGerman naso sizobhekwa, kucatshangwa ukuthi isibikezelo sokufunda sizohlala siphezulu ku-2.90%.
Ngaphandle kokubika imininingwane ehlukahlukene yama-PMI kanye ne-CPI yezomnotho ehlukahlukene kanye ne-EZ, umcimbi osalayo wokuma kwesonto ubandakanya ukushicilelwa kwemizuzu yomhlangano wokugcina wenqubomgomo yemali ye-FOMC, umbiko ozohlaziywa ukukhomba noma yimaphi amazwi aphikisayo Umhlahlandlela wamanje we-FOMC / Fed wokuya phambili maqondana nosuku lokuqala kwamazinga amathathu wenzalo ahleliwe anyukile ngo-2018 nanoma ikuphi ukuqiniswa okungahle kube khona.
Sunday iqala isonto lethu ngemininingwane evela eJapan, kufaka phakathi okwakamuva: ibhalansi yezohwebo, idatha yokungenisa nokuthekelisa. Njengoba umthengisi wezimpahla waseJapane ephethe insalela yezohwebo, hhayi imali esilele futhi naphezu kokuncintisana okuvela eChina, e-USA naseJalimane, iJapane isengumthumeli obalulekile. Kuze kube nguDisemba isibalo sokukhula seYoY besingu-9.3% esihlaba umxhwele kakhulu futhi abahlaziyi bazobe befuna ukuthi leli phethini lokukhula ligcinwe.
UMsombuluko ekuseni kuqala ngamamethrikhi endali yobisi yanyanga zonke evela eNew Zealand, okuyibarometer ebhekwe ngokucophelela yezempilo yezomnotho e-NZ, ngokunikezwa kwezwe ukuthembela kulo mkhakha ekukhuleni kokuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe. Ukudayiswa kwezindlu e-UK kuyacutshungulwa, njengoba i-Rightmove ishicilela inhlolovo yabo yakamuva yokubuza ngentengo ngoMsombuluko ekuseni. Ukuthengwa kwamabhondi aseJapan kuzophinde kuhlolwe, ikakhulukazi njengoba ukukhula kweGDP yaseJapan kwehle kwaba ngu-0.10% QoQ, okungenzeka ukuthi kubuyise imicabango yokuqhutshwa kwemakethe nokunciphisa umfutho wemali. Njengoba izimakethe zaseYurophu zivulwa, kuzokhishwa imali esalayo ye-akhawunti ye-Eurozone futhi kuzodalulwa umphumela wokwakhiwa kwebhulogi elilodwa lwemali, elinyukele ku-2.7% YoY ekhangayo ngoDisemba.
On NgoLwesibili ekuseni kukhona iqoqo lemininingwane yaseJapane okufanele liqashwe, kufaka phakathi ukuthengiswa kwesuphamakethe, ukuthengiswa kwesitolo, ukuthengiswa kwesitolo okulula nama-oda wamathuluzi omshini. Njengoba kuvulwa izimakethe zaseYurophu, kukhishwa izibalo zakamuva zokungenisa nokuthekelisa zaseSwitzerland, kulandela umbiko wenani lentengo yabakhiqizi baseJalimane. Ukulethwa kwamuva kwe-ZEW kulethwa, lapho kuzogxilwa kakhulu ekufundweni kwemizwa nokulindelwe. Ukufundwa kokuzethemba kwabathengi kwe-Eurozone ngoFebhuwari kuzophinda kuvezwe. Inhlangano yakamuva yase-UK yokuhweba i-CBI izoshicilela izitayela zayo zakamuva zama-oda nezentengo zokuthengisa.
On NgoLwesithathu ekuseni, inkomba yamanani omholo wase-Australia nomsebenzi wokwakha owenziwe ngamamethrikhi uyakhishwa, isihlenga semininingwane yemiphumela yokuthengwa kwebhange laseJapan nayo izothunyelwa. Yonke imisebenzi yezimboni efundwayo nayo izoshicilelwa. Njengoba ukunakwa kuphendukela eYurophu izinsizakalo zanyanga zonke, ezokukhiqiza kanye nezinsizakalo ze-PMI zase-Italy, Germany kanye ne-EZ ebanzi zizonikeza ukufundwa okuthakazelisayo. Kusuka e-UK kuzokhishwa iqoqo lemiphumela yokungasebenzi, ukwehla kwamandla emali, amazinga okubolekwa komphakathi kanye nezimali zomphakathi. Njengoba izimakethe zase-USA zivulwa, Makisha ama-PMIs wezwe lokukhiqiza, izinsizakalo kanye nokuhlanganiswa kuzothunyelwa, amamethrikhi wokuthengisa emakhaya nawo azokhishwa. Abatshalizimali bazogxila ekukhishweni kwemizuzu emhlanganweni wakamuva we-FOMC, okubaluleke kakhulu kunikezwe ukuzwela kwezimakethe kwakamuva maqondana nemakethe yamasheya ezimakethe esanda kuthengiswa futhi ilulame ngemuva kwalokho.
NgoLwesine iqala ngolwazi lokusetshenziswa kwekhadi lesikweletu laseNew Zealand, kokubili i-YoY ne-MoM. Njengoba izimakethe zase-Europe zivulwa, kuvezwa ukufundwa kwakamuva kwe-IFO yaseJalimane, kanye nokukhishwa kwezimboni zaseSwitzerland. Ukugxila kuzophendukela ekufundweni kwakamuva kwe-UK GDP, ku-1.5% abatshalizimali be-YoY bazokubuka lokhu ngokucophelela nganoma yiziphi izimpawu zokuba buthaka komnotho. Idatha yakamuva yekota yokuthekelisa nokungenisa e-UK izobukelwa eduze, ngo -0.7% we-Q3 2017, ukulindela ukuthi iphawundi elibuthakathaka leBrexit elizovusa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, kubonakala kungenasisekelo.
Ntambama ematasa ezindabeni zekhalenda lezomnotho lase-USA, izimangalo ezintsha zamasonto onke ezingenamisebenzi kanye nemininingwane eqhubekayo yezimangalo izobhekwa ngenxa yokuqashwa kanye nedatha yokunyuka kwamaholo iyisihloko esishisayo sabatshalizimali. Idatha yakamuva kawoyela nophethiloli nayo izocutshungulwa, njengoba i-WTI isanda kucwilisa ngaphansi kwe- $ 60 level barrel. Usuku luphela ngezibalo zakamuva ze-CPI zaseJapan njalo ngenyanga nonyaka, izibalo ze-YoY kulindeleke ukuthi zifike ku-1.0% YoY kuze kufike kuJanuwari.
On Friday ukuthengwa kwamabhondi aseJapan kwakamuva kuzobhekwa ngokucophelela, njengoba izimakethe zase-Europe zivula iqoqo lemininingwane yaseJalimane kubandakanya ukufunwa, ukusetshenziswa kwemali, ukutshalwa kwezimali kanye nokusetshenziswa okuzobhekelwa kakhulu, njengoba kuzoba izibalo zakamuva zokungenisa, ukuthekelisa kanye ne-GDP. Isibalo sakamuva se-Eurozone CPI singahle sinikeze izinkomba mayelana nokuxega i-ECB okufanele inciphise ekunciphiseni imali kwe-APP. ICanada isematheni, njengoba kusakazwa uchungechunge lwakamuva lwezibalo ze-CPI. Imicimbi yekhalenda yesonto iphela ngokubalwa kwe-Baker Hughes rig, imethrikhi ebukelwa njalo, maqondana nentengo kawoyela we-WTI.
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