Idatha yokuqashwa nokungasebenzi kwabantu e-USA izobhekwa kuleli sonto elizayo, njengoba kuvezwa owokugcina we-NFP ka-2017
Ikhalenda lethu lezomnotho liqala ukubukeka ngendlela ebonakalayo kuleli sonto elizayo njengoba izimakethe zethu: iFX, ukulingana kanye nezimpahla zigcine sezibuyela empilweni, ngemuva kwamaXmas namaholide omnyaka omusha. Ngenkathi kunokuhlungwa kokufundwa kwe-PMI emhlabeni jikelele okushicilelwe ngu: UMarkit, uCaixan kanye ne-USA okulingana ne-ISM isonto lonke, okugxilwe kakhulu kuleli sonto yimisebenzi nokungasebenzi, ikakhulukazi izinombolo zomsebenzi zase-USA.
Isonto liphela ngezinombolo ze-NFP zanyanga zonke futhi ku-180k ebikezelwe ngoDisemba, abahlaziyi nabatshalizimali bangabuka lesi sibalo njengesidumazayo, uma kubhekwa imisebenzi yesikhashana isikhathi samaholide obekufanele siyidale. Ukulahleka kwemisebenzi okuyinselele, izinombolo zomsebenzi ze-ADP, izimangalo ezintsha zokungasebenzi kanye nezicelo eziqhubekayo zizoshicilelwa. Kodwa-ke, kukhona enye imethrikhi evame ukunganakwa emsindweni; isilinganiso sokubamba iqhaza kwabasebenzi abadala e-USA, okungama-62%. Iqiniso elisangulukisayo; ukuthi cishe abantu abadala abane kwabayishumi e-USA abasebenzi ngokomnotho / abangasebenzi / abekho kugridi, akusilo uhlobo lwesibalo ongalindela ukuthi umnotho okhulayo ubhalise.
ISonto liqala isonto ngama-PMIs akhiqiza futhi angakhiqizi eChina, isibikezelo sokuthi zombili izinombolo zihlale ziseduze kwezibalo ezishicilelwe ngoNovemba futhi zinikezwe isikhundla seChina njengenjini yomhlaba yokukhiqiza yokukhiqiza, inani elilindelekile lokukhiqiza ku-51.7 lizohlala liseduze ihlolwe ngabatshalizimali nabahlaziyi, nganoma yiziphi izimpawu zobuthakathaka.
UMsombuluko (usuku lwangonyaka omusha) wusuku oluthule ngokwedlulele lwezindaba zekhalenda lezomnotho, okushicilelwa okuyinhloko ngamanani endali yobisi yanyanga zonke avela eNew Zealand. Kubadayisi be-kiwi dollar lezi zibalo zibalulekile ngenxa yesikhundla sezwe njengomthengisi omkhulu wobisi oya e-Asia. Imininingwane yase-Australia eshicilelwe ngalolu suku iqukethe i-PMI yakamuva yangoDisemba nokusebenza kwe-AiG yenkomba yokukhiqiza.
Lapho uLwesibili selufikile, imininingwane yethu yekhalenda lezomnotho iqala ukubuyela kokujwayelekile njengoba usuku olumatasa lwezindaba ezibalulekile luhanjiswa. Izibalo zokuthengisa zaseJalimane kufanele ziveze ukukhula okungu-1% ngoNovemba (minyaka yonke kanye neMoM), okuthuthukile ekufundweni okungekuhle okushicilelwe ngo-Okthoba. Kushicilelwa isihlenga sama-PMIs akhiqiza i-Eurozone ngoDisemba, kanti iFrance, i-Germany, i-Italy kanye nezibalo ezibanzi ze-Eurozone kulindeleke ukuthi zihlale zingashintshiwe. Ngenkathi isibalo se-PMI sase-UK kulindeleke ukuthi siveze ukuwa kusuka ku-58.2 kuye ku-57.9. Njengoba ukugxila bese kuphendukela eNyakatho Melika, kuvezwa i-PMI yaseCanada kaDisemba, kanjalo ne-PMI yase-USA evela eMarkit.
NgoLwesithathu kuqala ngezibalo ezintsha zokuthengiswa kwezimoto ezivela e-USA, njalo okukhombisa ikhono labathengi baseMelika, ukuzethemba kanye nesifiso sokuthatha isikweletu esisha sethikithi elikhulu. I-PMI yakamuva yaseSwitzerland yokukhiqiza ngoDisemba iyakhishwa, kanye nesibalo sokungasebenzi kwabantu ngoDisemba saseJalimane, lapho kulindeleke ukuthi isilinganiso sikhuphuke sibe ngu-5.5%. I-PMI yokwakha yase-UK ngoDisemba kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale ingashintshiwe ku-53.1, ngenkathi ukusetshenziswa kwemali yokwakha e-USA kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle ngezikhathi ezithile ku-0.7% ngoNovemba. Ukukhishwa kwedatha ephezulu ye-USA ngosuku yilokhu: Ukufundwa kokukhiqizwa kwe-ISM ngoDisemba kulindeleke ukuthi kungashintshi ku-58.2, imethrikhi yokuqashwa kwe-ISM nokudedelwa kwemizuzu emhlanganweni i-FOMC ebibanjwe ngoDisemba, lapho bathathe khona isinqumo ukukhuphula inani lenzalo enkulu libe ngu-1.5%.
NgoLwesine wusuku olumatasatasa kakhulu lwezindaba zekhalenda lezomnotho, kepha-ke, ukukhishwa okuningi kuncane kakhulu. Izinsizakalo zakamuva zaseChina kanye nama-PMI ahlanganisiwe weCaixan kuzoshicilelwa, kanjalo ne-PMI yakamuva yokukhiqiza yaseJapan. Njengoba ukunakwa kuphendukela eYurophu, inkomba yamanani ezindlu yase-UK eshicilelwe yiNationalwide izokhishwa, okulindelwe ukukhuphuka kuka-0.2% ngoDisemba kubhaliswa ukunyuka kwe-2% YoY. Iqoqo lezinsizakalo nama-PMIs ahlanganisiwe wamazwe e-Eurozone ne-Eurozone ashicilelwa ngokukhethekile, iningi kulindeleke ukuthi likhombise ushintsho oluncane noma lungekho nhlobo kusukela ekufundweni kukaNovemba. Ibhange eliphakathi lase-UK i-BoE ishicilela amamethrikhi alo kaNovemba ku: ukubolekwa kwenetha, ukubolekwa kwemali mboleko kanye nokunikezwa kwemali. Ukugxila kugcinwa e-UK njengoba izinsizakalo zakamuva kanye nama-Markit PMIs ahlanganisiwe ashicilelwa, kulindeleke nezinsizakalo ukwenza ngcono okuncane kube ngu-54.1, kusuka ku-53.8.
Njengoba kunakwa kuvulwa imakethe yase-USA kuvulwa ukugxila emisebenzini, ikakhulukazi ngezinombolo ze-NFP okumele zishicilelwe ngosuku olulandelayo, uLwesihlanu. Izinombolo zemisebenzi ye-ADP ziyashicilelwa, kanjalo nokuncishiswa kwemisebenzi kwabaphikisi, izimangalo zakamuva zokungasebenzi kanye nezicelo eziqhubekayo ze-USA nazo zizovezwa. Ukuhlanganiswa kwalawa ma-metric kunganikeza inkomba yokuthi isibikezelo sokukhula komsebenzi kwe-NFP ngoDisemba sifakazela ukuthi sinembe kangakanani. Ukushicilelwa kosuku lwedatha ebalulekile kuphetha ngesisekelo semali yaseJapan nemali mboleko nedatha yesaphulelo.
NgoLwesihlanu kufakazelwa ukushicilelwa kwezibalo zebhalansi yase-Australia, izinsizakalo zakamuva zaseJapan nama-PMIs ahlanganisiwe kuyadalulwa. Njengoba ukugxila kuphendukela ekuvulekeni kwezimakethe zaseYurophu, kushicilelwa iqembu lama-PMI okudayisa amazwe ahola i-Eurozone, e-Italy, eFrance, eJalimane nase-Eurozone ebanzi, ngenkathi imethrikhi yokwakha yaseJalimane ivezwa futhi. Isibalo sakamuva se-Eurozone CPI kulindeleke ukuthi sifike ku-1.4%, ukuwa okuncane kusuka ku-1.5%.
Ukushicilelwa kwedatha yaseNyakatho Melika kuqala ngesibalo sakamuva sokungasebenzi kwabantu baseCanada, kulindeleke ukuthi singene ku-5.9% ngenani lokubamba iqhaza lika-65.7%. Kusuka e-USA sizokwamukela izibalo zakamuva ze-NFP, ngezilokotho ze-BLS (ihhovisi lezibalo zabasebenzi). Ukubikezela ukuthi imisebenzi ye-185k yadalwa ngoDisemba, ukuwa kusuka ku-228k okwenziwe ngoNovemba. Izinga lokubamba iqhaza kwabasebenzi kulindeleke ukuthi lingene kuma-62.7%, kanti isibalo sabangasebenzi sizohlala singashintshi ku-4.1%. Isilinganiso samahora onke kanye namaholo atholakele e-USA, kulindeleke ukuthi ahlale ehambisana nezibalo zangoNovemba futhi angakhombisi zinguquko.
Isibalo sebhalansi yezohwebo e-USA ngoNovemba kulindeleke ukuthi sithuthuke kancane kuye ku- - $ 48b, ama-oda aqinile ngoNovemba abikezelwa ukuthi azohlala eseduze nesibalo se-1.3% esashicilelwa ngo-Okthoba, kanti ukufundwa kwe-ISM okungeyona eyokukhiqiza / yezinsizakalo kulindeleke ukuthi kuveze ukunyuka okuncane kuya ku-57.5. Idatha yase-USA yamasonto onke iphela nge-Baker Hughes rig count, eveza ukusebenza komkhiqizo kawoyela wasekhaya ezweni. Isikhulu seFed uMnu uHarker uzokwethula izinkulumo ezingqungqutheleni ezimbili, izikhonzi zakhe zingumbono wezomnotho kanye nokuhlanganiswa kwenqubomgomo yezimali.
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