Ama-Commentary e-Forex Market - UK Akaze Ashiye Ukwehla Komnotho

I-UK ibuyile ekuwohlokeni komnotho ayikaze iphume

UJan 16 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-6062 • 1 Comment e-UK Ibuyile Ekuwohlokeni Kwezomnotho Ayikaze Yaphuma

I-UK Ibuyile Ekuwohlokeni Komnotho Ayikaze Yaphuma. Eqinisweni i-USA Ayihlukile

Incazelo yokuwohloka komnotho ishintshile ngokuhamba kweminyaka futhi iyahlukahluka kuye ngamazwe kanye nezwekazi nezwekazi. E-UK Ukwehla komnotho kuchazwa njengezinkathi ezimbili ezilandelanayo zokukhula okungekuhle. E-USA i-Business Cycle Dating Committee ye-National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ngokuvamile ibonakala njengegunya lokuqomisana ngokwehla komnotho e-US. I-NBER ichaza ukwehla komnotho ngokuthi:

ukwehla okuphawulekayo kwemisebenzi yezomnotho esabalale emnothweni wonke, okuhlala isikhathi esingaphezu kwezinyanga ezimbalwa, ngokuvamile kubonakala ku-GDP yangempela, iholo langempela, ukuqashwa, ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni, nokuthengiswa kwezitolo ezinkulu.

Cishe emhlabeni wonke, izifundiswa, osomnotho, abenzi bezinqubomgomo, namabhizinisi bahlehlisa isinqumo se-NBER mayelana nezinsuku ezinembile zokuqala nokuphela kokuwohloka komnotho. Ngamafuphi uma ukukhula 'kuya kuba kubi' e-USA kusho ukuthi izwe lisenkingeni yomnotho.

Ngokusho kosomnotho, kusukela ngo-1854, i-US ihlangabezane nemijikelezo engu-32 yokunwetshwa nokufinyela, ngesilinganiso sezinyanga eziyi-17 zokufinyela kanye nezinyanga ezingama-38 zokunwetshwa. Kodwa-ke, kusukela ngo-1980 kube nezinkathi eziyisishiyagalombili kuphela zokukhula komnotho okungekuhle ekoteni eyodwa yezimali noma ngaphezulu, futhi izikhathi ezine zibhekwa njengokwehla komnotho.

Ukwehla komnotho e-USA kusukela ngo-1980

NgoJulayi 1981 - Novemba 1982: izinyanga eziyi-14
Julayi 1990 - Mashi 1991: izinyanga eziyi-8
Mashi 2001 - Novemba 2001: izinyanga eziyi-8
Disemba 2007 - Juni 2009: izinyanga eziyi-18

Ezinhlizweni ezintathu ezedlule, isinqumo se-NBER cishe sihambisana nencazelo efaka amakwata amabili alandelanayo okwehla. Nakuba ukwehla komnotho ngo-2001 akuzange kufake amakota amabili alandelanayo okwehla, kwandulelwa izingxenye ezimbili kwezine zokwehla okushintshile nokukhula okubuthakathaka. Ukuwohloka komnotho eMelika ngo-2007 kwaphela ngoJuni, 2009 njengoba isizwe singena ekusimameni komnotho okukhona njengamanje.

Izinga lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi e-US likhule lafinyelela kumaphesenti angu-8.5 ngoNdasa wezi-2009, futhi kwaba nokulahlekelwa kwemisebenzi eyizigidi ezingu-5.1 kwaze kwaba nguNdasa wezi-2009 kusukela kwaqala ukuwohloka komnotho ngoZibandlela wezi-2007. ukwenyuka kwaminyaka yonke kwenani labantu abangasebenzi kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1940.

Ukwehla komnotho e-UK Kusukela ngo-1970

Phakathi nawo-1970 ukwehla komnotho ngo-1973-5, iminyaka emi-2 (6 kweziyi-9 Qtr). Kuthathe amakota ayi-14 ukuze i-GDP ibuyele esimweni ekuqaleni kokuwohloka komnotho ngemuva 'kokucwiliswa kabili'.

Ekuqaleni kwawo-1980 ukwehla komnotho ngo-1980-1982, iminyaka emi-2 (6 – 7 Qtr). Ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi kukhuphuke ngo-124% kusuka ku-5.3% wabantu abasebenzayo ngo-Aug 1979 kuya ku-11.9% ngo-1984. Kuthathe amakota ayi-13 ukuze i-GDP ibuyele kulokho ekuqaleni kuka-1980. Kuthathe amakota ayi-18 ukuze i-GDP ibuyele kulokho ekuqaleni kokuwohloka komnotho.

Ekuqaleni kwawo-1990 ukwehla komnotho ngo-1990-2 iminyaka engu-1.25 (5 Qtr). Inani eliphakeme lokushoda kwesabelomali ngama-8% e-GDP. Ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi kukhuphuke ngamaphesenti angama-55 ukusuka ku-6.9% wabantu abasebenzayo ngo-1990 kuya ku-10.7% ngo-1993. Kuthathe amakota ayi-13 ukuze i-GDP ibuyele kulokho ekuqaleni kokuwohloka komnotho.

Ukuwohloka komnotho ngasekupheleni kuka-2000, iminyaka engu-1.5, amakota ayi-6. Umphumela wehle ngo-0.5% ngo-2010 Q4. Izinga lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi ekuqaleni likhuphuke lafinyelela ku-8.1% (abantu abayizigidi ezingu-2.57) ngo-August 2011, izinga eliphezulu kakhulu kusukela ngo-1994, lokhu sekudlule. Kusukela ngo-Okthoba 2011, ngemuva kwamakota ayi-14, i-GDP isese phansi ngo-4% ukusuka esiqongweni ekuqaleni kokuwohloka komnotho.

 

I-akhawunti ye-Forex Demo I-akhawunti ye-Forex Live Fundisa i-akhawunti yakho

 

Indlela Ukubuyisela 'Kwathengwa' Ngayo
Izibalo zokuwohloka komnotho zase-USA zika-2008/2009 zibonisa ukuthi i-USA imile kangakanani nokuthi incane kangakanani 'inqubekelaphambili' eyenziwe. Phezu kwazo zonke lezi zinkulumo nokungaqondi kahle iqiniso liwukuthi i-USA isantekenteke. NgoNdasa wezi-2009 ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi bekuku-8.5%, namuhla kungama-8.5%. NgoMashi 2009 izigidi ezi-5.1 zase zilahlekelwe yimisebenzi, izilinganiso manje ziphakamisa cishe ukulahlekelwa kwemisebenzi eyizigidi ezingu-9.0 kusukela ngo-2007-2012. Naphezu kwemizamo yokuyiphotha ngaphandle kwalokho azikho izinto ezifana 'nokululama kokungasebenzi', i-USA isangene shi emseleni wokuwohloka komnotho okujulile. I-USA izodinga ukudala amathuba emisebenzi acishe abe ngu-400,000 ngenyanga esikhathini esizinzile seminyaka emithathu, ukuze ibuyele emazingeni angaphambi kuka-2007 okuqashwa.

Amaqiniso kanye nezibalo, eziphathelene nokukhishwa kwebheyili, ukuhlenga kanye nezinhlelo zokunciphisa inani e-USA, kufakwe ama-drip noma kuphakelwe ngenxa yokungenelela kwe-Bloomberg ngezinkantolo. Ukususa lezo zibalo umkhawulo wesikweletu awukafihlwa. Ukuhlakanipha okutholiwe ukuthi kuwo wonke amadola amabili okukhula i-USA 'ithenge' isikweletu samadola ayisishiyagalombili. Ukushiya eceleni umonakalo wangempela wamandla okuthenga lokhu okubangele, ngenxa yokwehla kwamandla emali okufihlwe ngokucophelela, ubufakazi bokwenyuka kwezikweletu bukhona ngombala omnyama nomhlophe wokuthi ukubuyiselwa kuyinkohliso kanjani.

Ukuphakama kwezikweletu kukhuphuke ngamaphesenti angaphezu kwama-40 kusukela ngo-2008. Izilinganiso ziphakamisa ukuthi isamba esikhulu sika-$5.2 sezigidigidi senyusiwe ukuze 'silulame', ukubuyisela okusabona isilinganiso esihle kakhulu sokuntuleka kwemisebenzi (U3) lapho kwaqala khona. , ngo-8.5%. Ngaphandle kwakho konke ukutakulwa kanye nokuhlenga (okuyimfihlo noma okushicilelwe) izinhlelo ze-'tarp' kanye nokuphakama kwezikweletu kukhuphuka i-USA iphansi, ngakho-ke ayizange iphume ekuwohlokeni komnotho, umsebenzi oyimpinda wobudlelwane bomphakathi usuphonswe.

Ukuqhathaniswa kwe-UK kufana ngokuphawulekayo, njengoba kunjalo naseYurophu. Izinga labangasebenzi e-UK liku-8.5%, nokho izinombolo ezingasebenzi zisezingeni eliphezulu eminyakeni eyishumi nesikhombisa futhi ngokocwaningo lukahulumeni kunemizi eyizigidi ezingu-3.9 engenayo 'eholayo'. Kukhona cishe u-4.8 ml abantu abadala base-UK abathola izinzuzo zokungasebenzi kanye nemisebenzi engu-400,000 etholakala nganoma yisiphi isikhathi. Futhi ngokuqashwa kwezigidi ezingu-20 lokhu kutholakala kwemisebenzi kumele isilinganiso esivamile sezibalo 'se-churn', 2%. Ngokufanayo ne-USA, kodwa ngezinga elincane, zombili iziphathimandla zase-UK zazama 'ukuthenga indlela yazo', zashiya i-UK inenani elimangalisayo elihlanganisiwe le-GDP v elihlangene elingaphezu kuka-900%, elibi kakhulu eYurophu okuthi (ngaphandle kwalokho) kungani abahlaziyi abaningi kanye nosopolitiki base-Europe bebuza ukukala kwe-AAA yase-UK.

http://oversight.house.gov/images/stories/Testimony/12-15-11_TARP_Sanders_Testimony.pdf

Iqiniso lazo zombili i-UK kanye ne-USA ukuthi azikaze zikushiye ukuwohloka komnotho, futhi njengoba abaningi basikisela (ngemuva komcimbi wango-2008) ekuzameni ukugwema ukwehla kwamandla omnotho amandla azodalelwa womabili amazwe ekucindezelekeni okunjengombuso okungakaze kubonwe kusukela ngaleso sikhathi. ngawo-1930.

Uma ngikwazi ukuboleka ibinzana laseMelika abaholi bezepolitiki base-UK, European and USA kumele 'batshele' umphakathi wabo mayelana nesimo samanje. Nakuba ukuqokwa kabusha kwesikhashana kuwumgomo wabo iqiniso lihlala liwukuthi zonke izindawo zihlale 'ekuwohlokeni' komnotho iminyaka emine. Naphezu kokufakwa okukhulu kokudalwa kwemali okubonakale kusukela uhlelo lwamabhange lwanamuhla lwethulwa 'ukukhula', njengoba kulinganiswa ngezinto eziyisisekelo ezisetshenziswa kakhulu; imisebenzi, ukunethezeka, ukonga okuncane, akukenzeki.

Uma sisusa wonke amaphakheji wokutakula futhi singazinaki izinzuzo zayo ezingabazisayo, i-USA manje ngokungangabazeki isinezinyanga ezingama-48 zokuwohloka komnotho, i-UK ne-Europe ziseminyakeni yama-35-37, okwenza lokhu kwehla komnotho kube kubi kakhulu ezikhathini zanamuhla 'ezirekhodiwe'. Bobathathu abaphathi bangase bafune ukucabangela ukuba nenkulumompikiswano eqotho nengagwegwesi nabazoba abavoti babo ngaphambi kokuba ukugudluka phakathi kweqiniso ne-spin kube okungenakulinganiswa njengezibalo zabo eziqanjiwe nezidukisayo.

Amazwana zivaliwe.

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