Septhemba 15 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-6692 • Amazwana Off kwi-Bond yegama, i-Eurobond
UMongameli weKhomishini yaseYurophu uJose Manuel Barroso unohlelo futhi usekelwa yinqwaba yabantu abadumile njenge'cebo lokuhlenga 'lenkinga yezikweletu i-Euroland futhi ngaphezu kwalokho amabhange amakhulu ase-Europe abhekene nawo. Icebo ukukhipha “ama-eurobonds” njengendlela engahluziwe 'yokuqeda' bonke ubuhlungu nokwabelana ngomthwalo kuzo zonke izifundazwe eziyishumi nesikhombisa ezingamalungu e-Eurozone.
Ungqongqoshe wezezimali wase-Italy usibize ngokuthi “yisixazululo esiyinhloko” enkingeni yezikweletu zase-euro. Izibalo ezinkulu emhlabeni wezezimali, kufaka phakathi umtshali-zimali wezigidi kanye nomqageli wemali uGeorge Soros, banikeze i-Eurobonds isibusiso nokusekelwa kwabo. Manje yini ebanjwayo futhi kungani ukuphikiswa okunamandla okuvela ezingxenyeni ezithile? Kungani iGermany izwakalise kaninginingi ukuphikisana okungantengantengi kwawo wonke umqondo wama-Eurobonds?
Isixazululo se-Eurobond sihle ngokulula kwayo. Abanye ohulumeni baseYurophu bakuthola kubiza ngokwengeziwe ukuboleka ezimakethe zemali. Njengoba umnotho wabo umile, futhi behlupheka ngenxa yemithwalo esindayo yezikweletu nezidingo zokuboleka, izindleko zokuboleka seziphundukile. IGrisi iboleka amabhondi weminyaka emibili ngamanani angama-25% ngenkathi iGerman ikwazile ukuboleka ngamanani ayo enzalo ashibhe kakhulu iminyaka engamashumi ayisithupha. Akungabazeki ukuthi lokhu kukhombisa ubuhlakani bezimali baseJalimane, kepha, izinkinga zesakhiwo ngaphakathi kwe-euro zibeke abaseYurophu baseningizimu engcupheni. Isixazululo se-eurobond ukuthi bonke ohulumeni abayishumi nesikhombisa be-eurozone baqinisekise ngokuhlanganyela izikweletu zabanye, ngendlela yamabhondi ajwayelekile. Ngokwenza njalo bonke ohulumeni bangaboleka ngesisekelo esifanayo nangezindleko ezifanayo.
Ukunyusa okukhulu kohlelo lwe-Eurobond akuqhamukanga emazweni angamalungu kepha kuqhamuke ezikhulwini zaseChina okubukeka sengathi zigcine zibethele imibala yazo emastini. I-China ngokusobala izimisele ukuthenga ama-eurobonds emazweni ahileleke enkingeni enkulu yezikweletu. UZhang Xiaoqiang, iphini likasihlalo we-ejensi ephezulu yezokuhlelwa kwezomnotho ezweni, unikeze ukwesekwa kwakhe e-World Economic Forum eDalian ngokuhambisana namazwi asekelayo avela kuNdunankulu uWen Jiabao ekuqaleni kwesonto emcimbini ofanayo.
Kukhona okungaphezu kokuncane ukusola ukuthi imbangela eyinhloko yeziphikiso zaseJalimane kubonakala sengathi yipolitiki yasekhaya. Abaholi baseJalimane ngokungangabazeki bazikhumbula izibalo zokukhula kweGDP ezweni labo emasontweni adlule futhi babona ngokuphelele ukuthi ukuwa kwe-Euro bekungeke "kuhleleke" kungaba nezinxushunxushu, ikakhulukazi eJalimane. Izibalo zokwehliswa kwezohwebo ne-GDP ezingamaphesenti angamashumi amabili nanhlanu ziye zasakazwa ngabahlaziyi abaningi bezimakethe. Ngaphandle kwenkulumo yokuqhuma kwabokufika eshicilelwe kumaphephandaba amaningi amaphephandaba aseJalimane enye indlela yokulondolozwa kwebhondi ayikho, akubonakali ngathi kukhona uhlelo B. Ngakho-ke uhlelo A ludinga ukuthengiswa kubantu abaningi baseJalimane abangabazayo.
Mhlawumbe ukugxilisa imiqondo yabo ngokuhlanganyela ekukhuleni kwamuva kokuntuleka kwemisebenzi nokukhumbuza isizwe saseJalimane ukuthi uma abalingani abathile baseYurophu behla bathatha iJalimane nabo kuzokwanela. Izinkulumo ezingokomzwelo ze; I-Italy, iSpain, iGrisi, iPortugal, i-Ireland, (i-PIIGS ehlanganisiwe) efuna 'ukuhamba mahhala' ngemuva kokuphathwa kwezimali okukhazimulayo kwaseJalimane kanye nesakhiwo sezomnotho esidinga amandla kudinga ukwenziwa iphutha futhi kusesikhundleni kuKhansela Merkel ukuqala leyo ngxoxo nokulandisa ngokushesha okukhulu kungenzeka. Unalokho engqondweni bobabili uNkk Merkel noMongameli waseFrance uSarkozy babonakala behlangene namhlanje ekuseni ekuzibophezeleni kwabo nasekukholelweni ukuthi iGrisi ngeke iyishiye i-Euro.
Ibhange eliphakathi laseSwitzerland ligcine isilinganiso salo esisezingeni eliphansi. Abenzi benqubomgomo ye-SNB banciphise izindleko zokuboleka kusuka ku-0.25% ngenyanga edlule ngenkathi bekhulisa ukwenziwa kwemali ezimakethe zemali ukusiza ukwenza buthaka i-franc. Ibhange eliphakathi laseSwitzerland lagcina ukwethula 'ikepisi lemali' ngo-1978 ukunqanda ukuzuza kuqhathaniswa nophawu lweDeutsche. Yize kungabizwa ngokuthi "ikepisi" emibhikishweni yasebhange enkulu, ukuthi kungahamba ibanga elide ukugcina i-franc ikhonjelwe ku-circa 1.20 uma iqhathaniswa ne-Euro, kufana ncamashi. Mhlawumbe ngokulindela le zero base rate ebambe i-Euro ithole inzuzo uma iqhathaniswa ne-franc kulezi zikhathi ezimbili ezedlule zokuhweba.
Izimakethe zase-Asia zenze (ikakhulukazi) ukuzuza okuhle ngokuhweba ebusuku / ekuseni kakhulu, i-Nikkei yavala u-1.76% kwathi i-Hang Seng yavala u-0.71%. i-CSI ivale u-0.15%. Ama-indices aseYurophu enze inzuzo ebonakalayo ekuhwebeni kwasekuseni, i-STOXX ithuthuke ngo-2.12%, i-CAC 2.01%, i-DAX 2.13%. i-ftse inyuke ngo-1.68%. I-Brent crude ifinyelela ku- $ 150 emgqonyeni, igolide liphansi cishe ngama- $ 5 nge-ounce. Ikusasa le-SPX lansuku zonke liphakamisa ukuvulwa kwe-circa 0.5% phezulu. Izimakethe zezimali beziqhelelene, idola lase-Aussie liyinto ehlukile ngokuwa okuthobekile ubusuku bonke nasekuseni kakhulu. Ukuphendukela ezimakethe zase-USA kunohlu lwemininingwane ezoshicilelwa namhlanje ntambama engathinta imizwa.
13:30 US - CPI Aug
13:30 US - I-Akhawunti yamanje 2Q
13:30 US - Empire State Ukukhiqiza Inkomba Sept
13:30 US - Izimangalo Zokuqala Ezingasebenzi
14:15 US - Ukukhiqizwa Kwezimboni Aug
14:15 US - Ukusetshenziswa Komthamo Aug
15:00 US - UPhilly Fed Sep
Isibalo se-CPI kulindeleke ukuthi sibe nenyanga ezinzile ngenyanga, izibikezelo zenzelwe ukuthi isibalo sonyaka sihlale singashintshiwe ku-3.6%.
Izinombolo zokuqala zokuqhubeka zomsebenzi zizoba nentshisekelo enkulu. Ucwaningo lwaseBloomberg lubikezele isibalo se-Initial Jobless Claims esingu-411K, lokhu kuqhathaniswa nesibalo esedlule esingu-414K. Ucwaningo olufanayo lubikezela i-3710K yezimangalo eziqhubekayo, uma kuqhathaniswa nesibalo esedlule esingu-3717K.
IPhilly Fed ithathwa njengesihloko 'sokuqala' sokuthi yikuphi okunye ukukhishwa kwedatha okungavezwa, inhlolovo yenziwa kusukela ngo-1968 futhi yakhiwe ngemibuzo eminingi efana nokuqashwa, amahora okusebenza, ama-oda, uhlu lwezimpahla namanani entengo. Ucwaningo lwaseBloomberg lwezomnotho lunikeze isibikezelo esiphakathi kuka -15. Ngenyanga edlule inkomba ingene ngo -30.7.
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Igama elithi Bond, i-Eurobond
Septhemba 15 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-6692 • Amazwana Off kwi-Bond yegama, i-Eurobond
UMongameli weKhomishini yaseYurophu uJose Manuel Barroso unohlelo futhi usekelwa yinqwaba yabantu abadumile njenge'cebo lokuhlenga 'lenkinga yezikweletu i-Euroland futhi ngaphezu kwalokho amabhange amakhulu ase-Europe abhekene nawo. Icebo ukukhipha “ama-eurobonds” njengendlela engahluziwe 'yokuqeda' bonke ubuhlungu nokwabelana ngomthwalo kuzo zonke izifundazwe eziyishumi nesikhombisa ezingamalungu e-Eurozone.
Ungqongqoshe wezezimali wase-Italy usibize ngokuthi “yisixazululo esiyinhloko” enkingeni yezikweletu zase-euro. Izibalo ezinkulu emhlabeni wezezimali, kufaka phakathi umtshali-zimali wezigidi kanye nomqageli wemali uGeorge Soros, banikeze i-Eurobonds isibusiso nokusekelwa kwabo. Manje yini ebanjwayo futhi kungani ukuphikiswa okunamandla okuvela ezingxenyeni ezithile? Kungani iGermany izwakalise kaninginingi ukuphikisana okungantengantengi kwawo wonke umqondo wama-Eurobonds?
Isixazululo se-Eurobond sihle ngokulula kwayo. Abanye ohulumeni baseYurophu bakuthola kubiza ngokwengeziwe ukuboleka ezimakethe zemali. Njengoba umnotho wabo umile, futhi behlupheka ngenxa yemithwalo esindayo yezikweletu nezidingo zokuboleka, izindleko zokuboleka seziphundukile. IGrisi iboleka amabhondi weminyaka emibili ngamanani angama-25% ngenkathi iGerman ikwazile ukuboleka ngamanani ayo enzalo ashibhe kakhulu iminyaka engamashumi ayisithupha. Akungabazeki ukuthi lokhu kukhombisa ubuhlakani bezimali baseJalimane, kepha, izinkinga zesakhiwo ngaphakathi kwe-euro zibeke abaseYurophu baseningizimu engcupheni. Isixazululo se-eurobond ukuthi bonke ohulumeni abayishumi nesikhombisa be-eurozone baqinisekise ngokuhlanganyela izikweletu zabanye, ngendlela yamabhondi ajwayelekile. Ngokwenza njalo bonke ohulumeni bangaboleka ngesisekelo esifanayo nangezindleko ezifanayo.
Ukunyusa okukhulu kohlelo lwe-Eurobond akuqhamukanga emazweni angamalungu kepha kuqhamuke ezikhulwini zaseChina okubukeka sengathi zigcine zibethele imibala yazo emastini. I-China ngokusobala izimisele ukuthenga ama-eurobonds emazweni ahileleke enkingeni enkulu yezikweletu. UZhang Xiaoqiang, iphini likasihlalo we-ejensi ephezulu yezokuhlelwa kwezomnotho ezweni, unikeze ukwesekwa kwakhe e-World Economic Forum eDalian ngokuhambisana namazwi asekelayo avela kuNdunankulu uWen Jiabao ekuqaleni kwesonto emcimbini ofanayo.
Kukhona okungaphezu kokuncane ukusola ukuthi imbangela eyinhloko yeziphikiso zaseJalimane kubonakala sengathi yipolitiki yasekhaya. Abaholi baseJalimane ngokungangabazeki bazikhumbula izibalo zokukhula kweGDP ezweni labo emasontweni adlule futhi babona ngokuphelele ukuthi ukuwa kwe-Euro bekungeke "kuhleleke" kungaba nezinxushunxushu, ikakhulukazi eJalimane. Izibalo zokwehliswa kwezohwebo ne-GDP ezingamaphesenti angamashumi amabili nanhlanu ziye zasakazwa ngabahlaziyi abaningi bezimakethe. Ngaphandle kwenkulumo yokuqhuma kwabokufika eshicilelwe kumaphephandaba amaningi amaphephandaba aseJalimane enye indlela yokulondolozwa kwebhondi ayikho, akubonakali ngathi kukhona uhlelo B. Ngakho-ke uhlelo A ludinga ukuthengiswa kubantu abaningi baseJalimane abangabazayo.
Mhlawumbe ukugxilisa imiqondo yabo ngokuhlanganyela ekukhuleni kwamuva kokuntuleka kwemisebenzi nokukhumbuza isizwe saseJalimane ukuthi uma abalingani abathile baseYurophu behla bathatha iJalimane nabo kuzokwanela. Izinkulumo ezingokomzwelo ze; I-Italy, iSpain, iGrisi, iPortugal, i-Ireland, (i-PIIGS ehlanganisiwe) efuna 'ukuhamba mahhala' ngemuva kokuphathwa kwezimali okukhazimulayo kwaseJalimane kanye nesakhiwo sezomnotho esidinga amandla kudinga ukwenziwa iphutha futhi kusesikhundleni kuKhansela Merkel ukuqala leyo ngxoxo nokulandisa ngokushesha okukhulu kungenzeka. Unalokho engqondweni bobabili uNkk Merkel noMongameli waseFrance uSarkozy babonakala behlangene namhlanje ekuseni ekuzibophezeleni kwabo nasekukholelweni ukuthi iGrisi ngeke iyishiye i-Euro.
Ibhange eliphakathi laseSwitzerland ligcine isilinganiso salo esisezingeni eliphansi. Abenzi benqubomgomo ye-SNB banciphise izindleko zokuboleka kusuka ku-0.25% ngenyanga edlule ngenkathi bekhulisa ukwenziwa kwemali ezimakethe zemali ukusiza ukwenza buthaka i-franc. Ibhange eliphakathi laseSwitzerland lagcina ukwethula 'ikepisi lemali' ngo-1978 ukunqanda ukuzuza kuqhathaniswa nophawu lweDeutsche. Yize kungabizwa ngokuthi "ikepisi" emibhikishweni yasebhange enkulu, ukuthi kungahamba ibanga elide ukugcina i-franc ikhonjelwe ku-circa 1.20 uma iqhathaniswa ne-Euro, kufana ncamashi. Mhlawumbe ngokulindela le zero base rate ebambe i-Euro ithole inzuzo uma iqhathaniswa ne-franc kulezi zikhathi ezimbili ezedlule zokuhweba.
Izimakethe zase-Asia zenze (ikakhulukazi) ukuzuza okuhle ngokuhweba ebusuku / ekuseni kakhulu, i-Nikkei yavala u-1.76% kwathi i-Hang Seng yavala u-0.71%. i-CSI ivale u-0.15%. Ama-indices aseYurophu enze inzuzo ebonakalayo ekuhwebeni kwasekuseni, i-STOXX ithuthuke ngo-2.12%, i-CAC 2.01%, i-DAX 2.13%. i-ftse inyuke ngo-1.68%. I-Brent crude ifinyelela ku- $ 150 emgqonyeni, igolide liphansi cishe ngama- $ 5 nge-ounce. Ikusasa le-SPX lansuku zonke liphakamisa ukuvulwa kwe-circa 0.5% phezulu. Izimakethe zezimali beziqhelelene, idola lase-Aussie liyinto ehlukile ngokuwa okuthobekile ubusuku bonke nasekuseni kakhulu. Ukuphendukela ezimakethe zase-USA kunohlu lwemininingwane ezoshicilelwa namhlanje ntambama engathinta imizwa.
13:30 US - CPI Aug
13:30 US - I-Akhawunti yamanje 2Q
13:30 US - Empire State Ukukhiqiza Inkomba Sept
13:30 US - Izimangalo Zokuqala Ezingasebenzi
14:15 US - Ukukhiqizwa Kwezimboni Aug
14:15 US - Ukusetshenziswa Komthamo Aug
15:00 US - UPhilly Fed Sep
Izinombolo zokuqala zokuqhubeka zomsebenzi zizoba nentshisekelo enkulu. Ucwaningo lwaseBloomberg lubikezele isibalo se-Initial Jobless Claims esingu-411K, lokhu kuqhathaniswa nesibalo esedlule esingu-414K. Ucwaningo olufanayo lubikezela i-3710K yezimangalo eziqhubekayo, uma kuqhathaniswa nesibalo esedlule esingu-3717K.
IPhilly Fed ithathwa njengesihloko 'sokuqala' sokuthi yikuphi okunye ukukhishwa kwedatha okungavezwa, inhlolovo yenziwa kusukela ngo-1968 futhi yakhiwe ngemibuzo eminingi efana nokuqashwa, amahora okusebenza, ama-oda, uhlu lwezimpahla namanani entengo. Ucwaningo lwaseBloomberg lwezomnotho lunikeze isibikezelo esiphakathi kuka -15. Ngenyanga edlule inkomba ingene ngo -30.7.
Inkinga ye-eurozonefxccukuphawula kwemakethe
« Indiza Yemali nokudonsa Amazinyo Egolide IGrisi yiLizwi njengoba Ingozi Yokwehla Komnotho Emhlabeni Iyanda iye ku-DEFCON 4 »