Ama-Commentary e-Forex Market - Inkomba ye-Baltic Dry

I-Baltic Dry Index Nezinombolo Zokungenisa ZaseChina

UFebhu 10 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-11086 • 1 Comment ku-The Baltic Dry Index And Chinese Import Figures

I-Baltic Dry Index Nezinombolo Zokungeniswa KwamaShayina Zikhuluma Indaba Abacwaningi Abaningi Abafuna Ukuyizwa

Ukube bekunenkomba eyaziwa kahle futhi ebhekiswe kakhulu eyehle ngaphezu kwe-60% ngonyaka ngonyaka umphakathi wezokutshalwa kwemali ubungeke ukhathazeke ngokujulile, imithombo yezindaba ejwayelekile ibizoba yicatonic ekuphenduleni kwayo. Lezi zihloko bezizokhombisa isimo 'sokuphela kwezinsuku'. Lesi simemezelo, sokuthi inhlekelele engenakugwemeka yemicimbi isizokwenzeka, kungaba yizindlebe…

Azikho izinkomba ezinkulu, ezidume kakhulu ezikhonjwe kakhulu eziwe ngamanani anjalo unyaka nonyaka Kwinkumbulo ephilayo, kungaba sengozini ka-2008-2009 noma ukulungiswa kwamuva nje kwikota yokugcina yonyaka ka-2011. Okusondele kakhulu esake sabhekana nakho ngesikhathi senkinga yesikweletu se-Eurozone kwaba / ukulungiswa kokushintshaniswa kwe-Athene, okuwe cishe ngo-50% unyaka nonyaka futhi lokhu kube nokukhuphuka okungama-30% selokhu kwehla ngoJan 10. Kepha i-ASE, yize kugxilwe kakhulu ekuqondeni e-Athene, akunakuthathwa njenge- “index main”.

Kuthiwani uma i-barometer eyaziwayo kabanzi yezempilo yezomnotho iye yehla cishe ngama-60% ngonyaka, njenge-SPX noma i-FTSE 100? Ukususa eceleni noma iyiphi inkolelo nenkolelo yokuthi izimakethe ezinkulu aziseyona inkomba yezempilo yezomnotho eqondile ababekade beyizo, ngenxa yezinqubomgomo ze-zirp, ukutakula, ukuhlenga, u-tarp kanye nezinhlelo zokunciphisa inani ezakha ukuqhuma kwamanga okungahlobene nezeqiniso lomnotho, uma izinkomba eziyinhloko zehlelwe ukuwa okunjalo ukuphendula bekungaba kuhle.

Kunenkomba eyodwa yokuthi osomnotho abaningi, abahlaziyi bezimakethe kanye nabahlaziyi bezimakethe bahlala bebheke isimo sezulu futhi ngokusobala, ngoba izimakethe ezinkulu ziguqulwe kakhulu ngokumpompa kwamaphakeji wokutakula, kukhombisa ukubonakaliswa okuthembekile kwezimo zamanje zemakethe yomhlaba njengoba kusekelwe ezinsikeni zomnotho womhlaba wonke njengokuhlinzekwa kanye nokufunwa, ukungeniswa nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, kwaziwa njenge-Baltic Dry Index.

Kufike ngesikhathi futhi kufanelekile ukusho le nkomba uma unikezwe izibalo ezikhishwe namhlanje ekuseni ezivela eChina ngokuphathelene nokuthekelisa nokungenisa izibalo; Ukuhweba kweChina kwancipha ngoJanuwari uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka owedlule, kwaphakamisa ukukhathazeka ngokuthi isidingo esibuthakathaka phesheya kwezilwandle sithinta kakhulu umnotho oqhutshwa ukuthekelisa.

Izibalo ezikhishwe ngoLwesihlanu yi-Customs Agency zikhombisa ukuthi ukungenisa kwempahla kuye kwehla ngamaphesenti ayi-15.3 kuya ku- $ 122.6 billion, kanti ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwehle ngo-0.5% kuya ku- $ 149.9 billion. Idatha yokuhweba embi kunazo zonke kusukela ngo-2009. Insalela yokuhweba yaseChina ebucayi kwezepolitiki inyuke yaya ku- $ 27.3 billion ngoJanuwari, okuyisibalo esiphezulu ezinyangeni eziyisithupha. Abahlaziyi abaningi bezezimali basikisela ukuthi imiphumela kaJanuwari yokuhweba ikhombisa ukuthi umnotho wesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni uyancipha, ngenxa yezinga eliphakeme lokungasebenzi kwabantu e-US kanye nenkinga yezikweletu ze-Eurozone.

Ukukhula komnotho oshisa izikhotha waseChina kwehlise ukukhula kwamaphesenti ayi-8.9, okuyizinga eliphansi kakhulu eminyakeni emibili nohhafu. I-International Monetary Fund ibikezele ukukhula ngo-8.2% kweChina ngo-2012, kodwa ixwayisa ukuthi lesi sibalo singancishiswa phakathi uma izinkinga zezimali zaseYurophu ziba zimbi.

Umnotho waseChina owawukhula phambilini ungumnotho wangempela 'wezwe elidala'. Kususelwa kwezentengiselwano zendabuko, ukukhula okukhulu kwasekhaya okuhlangabezanwe nakho kudale ukoma okubabazekayo kokungeniswa okuvela emazweni afana ne-Australia. Ngenkathi izinsizakalo zezezimali zidlondlobele, ikakhulukazi ezweni elaliyi-UK koloni laseHong Kong, ukuqhuma kweChina kudale ukuhweba okuyisisekelo okuyisisekelo emhlabeni okudinga ukungeniswa okukhulu kwezinto zokusetshenziswa. Ukuthi lokho kungeniswa kwehle ngaphezu kwe-15% unyaka nonyaka kufanele kube yisizathu sokukhathazeka okukhulu, ikakhulukazi uma iChina ithathwa njengesiqalo esikhulu lapho eminye iminotho eminingi ilinganisiwe futhi ichuma khona.

Kodwa-ke, izibalo zezohwebo zingathathwa njengezinkomba ezisalela emuva, noma ngabe lowo mbono iziphathimandla zaseChina zihambe ibanga elide namhlanje ekuseni ukugcizelela ukuthi isikhathi samaholide nekhalenda yenyanga kube nomthelela omubi kulezi zibalo. I-loop yezomnotho, yokuthengwa / yokufunwa / yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe iyathakazelisa ngenxa yokuthi i-IMF futhi empeleni iyinhlangano 'engudadewabo' iBhange Lomhlaba iphakamise ukuthi ukukhula kungancipha ngohafu, kusuka ku-8.3%, uma inkinga ye-Eurozone iqhubeka noma inyuka. Kodwa-ke, udaba lwe-Eurozone lungaba yingxenye yodaba kuphela, ukuwa okumangazayo kokungeniswa ezweni kungamemezela izehlakalo ezikhathaza kakhulu umnotho wasekhaya waseChina, ukufunwa okukhulu kwezinto zokusetshenziswa kungahle kufinyelele esiphethweni esingazelelwe futhi lokhu kushaywa okungazelelwe kwe kungenzeka ukuthi ama-buffers abikezelwa uma sinakekela ukubuka iminyango emnyama yemininingwane eyisisekelo yezomnotho lapho abaningi besaba ukuya khona ..

I-Baltic Index Index
I-Baltic Dry Index (BDI) iyinombolo ekhishwa nsuku zonke yiBaltic Exchange eseLondon. Akukhawulelwanga emazweni aseBaltic Sea, inkomba ilandelela amanani entengo omhlaba wonke wokuthumela wezimpahla ezahlukahlukene ezomile.

Inkomba inikeza "ukuhlolwa kwentengo yokuhambisa izinto zokusetshenziswa ezinkulu ngolwandle. Ifaka imizila engama-26 yemikhumbi ekalwa ngesikhathi esinqunyelwe nesikhathi nohambo, inkomba ihlanganisa i-Handymax, iPanamax, neCapesize yenqwaba yenqola ephethe izinto eziningi ezibandakanya amalahle, insimbi okusansimbi nokusanhlamvu. ”

 

I-akhawunti ye-Forex Demo I-akhawunti ye-Forex Live Fundisa i-akhawunti yakho

 

Indlela Esebenza
Nsuku zonke zokusebenza, iphaneli labathengisi bemikhumbi bamazwe aphesheya lithumela umbono wabo wezindleko zamanje zezimpahla emizileni eyahlukahlukene eBaltic Exchange. Imizila yenzelwe ukuthi imelwe, okusho ukuthi inkulu ngokwanele ngevolumu ukubhekela yonke imakethe.

Lokhu kuhlolwa kwamazinga kuyalinganiswa ndawonye ukudala i-BDI iyonke kanye nezimpawu ezikhethekile zosayizi iSupramax, iPanamax, neCapesize. Izici ze-BDI kumasayizi amane ahlukene emikhumbi yokuthutha ngobuningi yolwandle:

I-BDI iqukethe ukuhlolwa kwemizila kokubili ngesisekelo se- “USD ekhokhelwe ngethani ngalinye” (okusho ukuthi ngaphambi kokuba kudonswe uphethiloli, itheku nezinye izindleko zohambo) kanye ne- “USD ekhokhelwa ngosuku” (okusho ukuthi ngemuva kokuba kudonswe izindleko zokuya ohambweni, okuvame ukubizwa ngokuthi “ I-charter time amaholo alinganayo ”). I-Fuel (= "Bunkers") izindleko ezinkulu ezincike ohambweni futhi zihamba ngentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe. Ezikhathini lapho izindleko zebunker zehla zenyuka kakhulu, lapho-ke i-BDI izothutha ngaphezu kwemali etholwe abanikazi bemikhumbi.

Inkomba ingafinyeleleka ngokubhaliselwe ngqo kusuka eBaltic Exchange kanye nakulwazi olukhulu lwezezimali nezinsizakalo zezindaba ezinjengeThomson Reuters neBloomberg LP.

Kungani Abezomnotho Nabatshali Bezimali Zamasheya Beyifunda
Ngokuqondile ngqo, inkomba ilinganisa isidingo samandla okuthumela ngokuqhathaniswa nokunikezwa kwezithwali zenqwaba eyomile. Isidingo sokuthumela siyahluka ngenani lezimpahla ezithengiswayo noma ezihanjiswayo ezimakethe ezahlukahlukene (ukunikezwa nokufunwa).

Ukulethwa kwemikhumbi ethwala izimpahla ngokuvamile kuqinile futhi akuhambisani — kuthatha iminyaka emibili ukwakha umkhumbi omusha, futhi imikhumbi iyabiza kakhulu ukusakazeka ngendlela izindiza ezipaka ngayo izindiza ezingadingeki ezingwadule. Ngakho-ke, ukwanda kwemikhawulo yokufunwa kungaphoqa inkomba ukuthi iphakame ngokushesha, futhi ukuncipha kwemfuno engezansi kungadala ukuthi inkomba yehle ngokushesha. isb. “uma unemikhumbi eyi-100 encintisana nemithwalo engama-99, amanani entengo ayayeka, kanti uma unemikhumbi engama-99 encintisana nemithwalo eyi-100, amanani ayakhuphuka. Ngamanye amagama, izinguquko ezincane zemikhumbi kanye nezindaba eziphathelene nokuhlelwa kwempahla kungahle kushaye amazinga… ”Inkomba ilinganisa ngokungaqondile ukunikezwa komhlaba wonke kanye nokufunwa kwempahla ethunyelwa ngaphakathi kwezinto ezithwala inqwaba eyomile, njengezinto zokwakha, amalahle, insimbi eyinsimbi, nezinhlamvu.

Umlando Wetheyiphu
NgoMeyi 20, 2008, inkomba yafinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu selokhu yethulwa ngo-1985, yafinyelela emaphuzwini ayi-11,793 5. Isigamu sonyaka kamuva, ngo-2008 Disemba 94, inkomba yehle ngama-663%, yaya kumaphoyinti angama-1986, okuyisibalo esiphansi kunazo zonke kusukela ngo-4; yize ngo-2009 Febhuwari 1,316 yayisitholile indawo elahlekile, ibuyele ku-XNUMX. ​​Lawa mazinga aphansi ahamba ngendlela eyingozi eduze kwezindleko zokusebenza ezihlangene zemikhumbi, uphethiloli, kanye nabasebenzi.

I-Multi Decade New Low Yafinyelelwa Ngomhlaka 3 Febhuwari 2012
Ngonyaka ka-2009, inkomba yaphakama yaze yafika ku-4661, kodwa yehla yaya ku-1043 ngoFebhuwari, 2011, ngemuva kokulethwa okuqhubekayo kwemikhumbi emisha nezikhukhula e-Australia. Yize ibuyela ku-2000 ngo-Okthoba 7, ngoFebhuwari 3, 2012, inkomba yenze ishumi elisha leminyaka eliphansi lama-647 ku-glut eqhubekayo yemikhumbi yamakhonteyina futhi yehla ngama-oda wensimbi namalahle.

Inkomba njengamanje yehle ngo-60.01% unyaka nonyaka kwathi i-36.36% yehla emasontweni ayisithupha okuqala ka-2012. Iqiniso lokuthi iminyaka eyishumi ephansi efinyelelwe ekuqaleni kukaFebhuwari kufanele kube ngesinye sezibalo zomnotho ezisabisa kakhulu ezivezwe kulo nyaka. Kodwa-ke, ngenkathi abahlaziyi abaningi emithonjeni yezindaba behlala begxile ezimakethe ezinkulu zezinkomba leli thuluzi elibaluleke kakhulu lizohlala libhekwa.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

Amazwana zivaliwe.

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