UJun 3 • Ukuthengiswa Kwama-Forex Izihloko, Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-5141 • Amazwana Off kokuthi “Thengisa ngoMeyi uhambe”, ukube bekulula kanjalo.
Inkulumo ethi “thengisa ngoMeyi uhambe” kucatshangwa ukuthi isuka esisho esidala sesiNgisi; "thengisa ngoMeyi uhambe futhi ubuye ngoSuku lwe-St. Leger." Le nkulumo ibhekisela esikweni ezikhathini zangaphambili lapho: izicukuthwane, abathengisi, nabaphathi bamabhange, beshiya idolobha elingcolile laseLondon babalekela ezweni, phakathi nezinyanga ezishisayo zasehlobo. Ukubuyela emuva edolobheni laseLondon, ngemva kokuba umjaho wamahhashi we-St. Leger Stakes ubanjwe.
Lo mjaho, owaqala ukuqhutshwa ngo-1776, wamathole aneminyaka emithathu ubudala, useyingxenye yomkhosi womjaho wezinsuku ezintathu, owawuseDoncaster enyakatho yeNgilandi. Umhlangano wokugcina womjaho wamafulethi wonyaka, oletha ikhethini ngesikhathi somjaho oyisicaba, njengoba kusondela izinyanga zasebusika.
Ngenyanga kaMeyi 2019, izimakethe zezabelo ze-USA zibe nokwehla okukhulu; i-SPX empeleni ibhalise ukuwa kwayo kwesibili okukhulu kwenyanga kusukela ngawo-1960. Ngenyanga kaMeyi i-SPX kanye ne-NASDAQ yehla amasonto amane elandelana, i-DJIA yehla amasonto ayisithupha ngokulandelana; ukuhlulwa okude kunayo yonke eminyakeni eyisishiyagalombili.
- I-DJIA yehle ngo-6.69%.
- I-SPX yehle ngo-6.58%.
- I-NASDAQ yehle ngo-7.93%.
Phakathi nesonto lokugcina lokuhweba likaMeyi.
- I-DJIA yehle ngo-3.01%.
- I-SPX yehle ngo-2.62%.
- I-NASDAQ yehle ngo-2.41%.
Ukwehla kwenani lezinkomba ze-equity yase-USA kanye nezibalo zangempela zanyanga zonke, kuzokwethusa kakhulu ukuthenga nokubamba, abatshalizimali abazimele besikhathi eside. Kodwa emhlabeni jikelele, 24/6, izinsuku zesimanje, izindawo zokuhweba, kungaba yisinqumo esinzima ukuvele uyeke ukuhweba: amanani, ama-indices, noma ezinye izimakethe, ezinyangeni ezine ezizayo.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuwohloka kunikeze izimo zokuhweba ezinhle kakhulu kubathengisi abafushane bezinkomba zemakethe yase-USA ngenyanga kaMeyi, kuyilapho kunikeza umfutho kwezinye izimakethe; ikakhulukazi izimakethe ze-forex nezimpahla, ebezihweba ngezigaba ezibanzi kakhulu, inyanga yonke. Isimo esijwayelekile sokuguquguquka sasikhona, ngezilokotho zokusetshenziswa kokuphatha kukaTrump kwezinye izintela zokungenisa eChina kanye nezinsongo zezintela ezintsha, ngokumelene neMexico kanye ne-EU.
Manje inyanga kaMeyi isiphelile, abahlaziyi abaningi kanye nosomnotho bazama ukubikezela; "Yini elandelayo, imakethe yezabelomali ibhekephi?" Okusobala, ngokusekelwe emalini amabili athengiswayo atholwe ezingxenyeni ezimbili zamakota amabili edlule, ukuthi umnotho womhlaba manje uyashintsha ngokusekelwe ezenzweni nasemazwini kaMongameli wase-USA. Akwenzeki ukubala futhi futhi uqhathanise isikhathi esedlule; lapho ukuhlaziya okuyisisekelo nokwezobuchwepheshe, kwehliselwe esimweni sokungadingeki, ngokuhlonipha umsebenzi wenkundla yezokuxhumana kanye nenqubomgomo yohlangothi olulodwa lwe-POTUS.
Phakathi namakota amabili okugcina ka-2018, izimakethe zezabelomali (emhlabeni wonke) zehla njengoba impi yohwebo nezintela ziqala ukusebenza. Ngenyanga kaMeyi, amaphethini aphindaphindiwe, kungase kutholakale umcabango ophephile wokuthi izimakethe zokulingana zizohamba ngezindlela ezimbili. Noma ngabe abatshalizimali bazolinganisa inani lendlela entsha evamile futhi izimakethe zizohwebelana eceleni, noma mhlawumbe ziqhubeke zithengise, zikhiphe okuphansi okuthunyelwe ngesikhathi sokuwohloka kowezi-2018. Abatshalizimali bangabhekisela ezilinganisweni ze-P/E, izinzuzo zentengo v futhi banqume uhlobo lokujabula okungenangqondo olusekhona. Isilinganiso samanje se-P/E se-SPX sicishe sibe ngu-21, isilinganiso sokufunda emuva ngeminyaka yawo-1950 sicishe sibe ngu-16, ngakho-ke, kungabekwa impikiswano yokuthi inkomba ingama-23% ngaphezu kwenani.
Abahlaziyi futhi bavame ukubhekisela “enani elifanelekile” lezimakethe zokulingana futhi kuyilapho abaningi, abacashunwe emaphephandabeni avamile ezezimali, okwamanje baphakamisa ukuthi izinkomba zezabelo ze-USA okwamanje ziseduze nevelu efanelekile, abanye baxwayisa ngokuthi amazinga okwehla kaDisemba 2018, angase abe. kufinyelelwe futhi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunokuba ukudayiswa okulandelayo kube ukuqhutshwa kwemizwa, noma yikuphi ukuwa kwesikhathi esizayo, uma kubikezelwe ngenxa yengcindezi yokuwohloka komnotho ebangelwa ukukhokhiswa kwentela okulimaza uhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe, kungase kubangelwe kokubili ukuntuleka kwemizwa kanye namamethrikhi ampofu kakhulu. Kungenjalo, izimakethe zezabelo ze-USA nezinye izinkomba zomhlaba zingakhuphuka; abatshalizimali bangase bamane banganaki amanani entengo futhi bangazinaki amamethrikhi abalulekile, njengokukhula kwe-GDP okuwayo futhi bamane bathenge amadiphu.
Izimakethe ziqhutshwa imizwa kanye nokuzethemba njengoba nje kunjalo ngedatha eqinile. Abaphathi bakaTrump baqale baqinisa ukuzethemba ngo-2017 futhi baqhubekisela phambili imakethe nokusimama komnotho, okwaqala ngaphansi kokuphatha kwangaphambilini. Ukwehliswa kwentela okubanzi okugqugquzelwe izinkampani ngo-2017-2018, okuthatha amanani aphansi njengokungu-15%, kubangele ukuzuza kwemakethe yezabelomali ka-2018. Kodwa-ke, lowo mthelela manje usuyaphela, njengoba kunjalo nokuqiniseka kwe-White House kanye ne-POTUS ukugcina inqubomgomo yezimali engashintshi.
Abanye abahlaziyi basikisela ukuthi uma amanani entengo eqhubeka, ngaphandle kwezimpawu zokuyekethisa, khona-ke okuwukuphela kwendlela izimakethe zokusiza ezingalindela ukuncishiswa kwenani lenzalo lesihloko sesihloko kusuka ku-2.5%. Ukuncishiswa kwenqubomgomo yezimali okungase kudingeke ngenxa yengcindezi egwemeka yokuwohloka komnotho. Ukwehla okungenzeka okungeke kubangwe ukuphela komjikelezo wezomnotho, kodwa ngenxa ye-POTUS, kuzomele okuhlangenwe nakho okuyingqayizivele.
« Ingabe i-RBA, ibhange elikhulu lase-Australia, izokwehlisa izinga lemali libe ngu-1.25% lisuka ku-1.50%, futhi idola lase-Aussie lizosabela kanjani uma lenza kanjalo? Igolide lenyukela ezingeni eliphakeme kakhulu kusukela ngoFebhuwari, izimakethe ziqala intengo ekwehlisweni kwamazinga we-FOMC ngo-2019, ama-FAANGS alahlekelwa ukuluma kwawo. »
"Thengisa ngoMeyi uhambe", ukube bekulula kanjalo nje.
UJun 3 • Ukuthengiswa Kwama-Forex Izihloko, Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-5141 • Amazwana Off kokuthi “Thengisa ngoMeyi uhambe”, ukube bekulula kanjalo.
Inkulumo ethi “thengisa ngoMeyi uhambe” kucatshangwa ukuthi isuka esisho esidala sesiNgisi; "thengisa ngoMeyi uhambe futhi ubuye ngoSuku lwe-St. Leger." Le nkulumo ibhekisela esikweni ezikhathini zangaphambili lapho: izicukuthwane, abathengisi, nabaphathi bamabhange, beshiya idolobha elingcolile laseLondon babalekela ezweni, phakathi nezinyanga ezishisayo zasehlobo. Ukubuyela emuva edolobheni laseLondon, ngemva kokuba umjaho wamahhashi we-St. Leger Stakes ubanjwe.
Lo mjaho, owaqala ukuqhutshwa ngo-1776, wamathole aneminyaka emithathu ubudala, useyingxenye yomkhosi womjaho wezinsuku ezintathu, owawuseDoncaster enyakatho yeNgilandi. Umhlangano wokugcina womjaho wamafulethi wonyaka, oletha ikhethini ngesikhathi somjaho oyisicaba, njengoba kusondela izinyanga zasebusika.
Ngenyanga kaMeyi 2019, izimakethe zezabelo ze-USA zibe nokwehla okukhulu; i-SPX empeleni ibhalise ukuwa kwayo kwesibili okukhulu kwenyanga kusukela ngawo-1960. Ngenyanga kaMeyi i-SPX kanye ne-NASDAQ yehla amasonto amane elandelana, i-DJIA yehla amasonto ayisithupha ngokulandelana; ukuhlulwa okude kunayo yonke eminyakeni eyisishiyagalombili.
Phakathi nesonto lokugcina lokuhweba likaMeyi.
Ukwehla kwenani lezinkomba ze-equity yase-USA kanye nezibalo zangempela zanyanga zonke, kuzokwethusa kakhulu ukuthenga nokubamba, abatshalizimali abazimele besikhathi eside. Kodwa emhlabeni jikelele, 24/6, izinsuku zesimanje, izindawo zokuhweba, kungaba yisinqumo esinzima ukuvele uyeke ukuhweba: amanani, ama-indices, noma ezinye izimakethe, ezinyangeni ezine ezizayo.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuwohloka kunikeze izimo zokuhweba ezinhle kakhulu kubathengisi abafushane bezinkomba zemakethe yase-USA ngenyanga kaMeyi, kuyilapho kunikeza umfutho kwezinye izimakethe; ikakhulukazi izimakethe ze-forex nezimpahla, ebezihweba ngezigaba ezibanzi kakhulu, inyanga yonke. Isimo esijwayelekile sokuguquguquka sasikhona, ngezilokotho zokusetshenziswa kokuphatha kukaTrump kwezinye izintela zokungenisa eChina kanye nezinsongo zezintela ezintsha, ngokumelene neMexico kanye ne-EU.
Manje inyanga kaMeyi isiphelile, abahlaziyi abaningi kanye nosomnotho bazama ukubikezela; "Yini elandelayo, imakethe yezabelomali ibhekephi?" Okusobala, ngokusekelwe emalini amabili athengiswayo atholwe ezingxenyeni ezimbili zamakota amabili edlule, ukuthi umnotho womhlaba manje uyashintsha ngokusekelwe ezenzweni nasemazwini kaMongameli wase-USA. Akwenzeki ukubala futhi futhi uqhathanise isikhathi esedlule; lapho ukuhlaziya okuyisisekelo nokwezobuchwepheshe, kwehliselwe esimweni sokungadingeki, ngokuhlonipha umsebenzi wenkundla yezokuxhumana kanye nenqubomgomo yohlangothi olulodwa lwe-POTUS.
Phakathi namakota amabili okugcina ka-2018, izimakethe zezabelomali (emhlabeni wonke) zehla njengoba impi yohwebo nezintela ziqala ukusebenza. Ngenyanga kaMeyi, amaphethini aphindaphindiwe, kungase kutholakale umcabango ophephile wokuthi izimakethe zokulingana zizohamba ngezindlela ezimbili. Noma ngabe abatshalizimali bazolinganisa inani lendlela entsha evamile futhi izimakethe zizohwebelana eceleni, noma mhlawumbe ziqhubeke zithengise, zikhiphe okuphansi okuthunyelwe ngesikhathi sokuwohloka kowezi-2018. Abatshalizimali bangabhekisela ezilinganisweni ze-P/E, izinzuzo zentengo v futhi banqume uhlobo lokujabula okungenangqondo olusekhona. Isilinganiso samanje se-P/E se-SPX sicishe sibe ngu-21, isilinganiso sokufunda emuva ngeminyaka yawo-1950 sicishe sibe ngu-16, ngakho-ke, kungabekwa impikiswano yokuthi inkomba ingama-23% ngaphezu kwenani.
Abahlaziyi futhi bavame ukubhekisela “enani elifanelekile” lezimakethe zokulingana futhi kuyilapho abaningi, abacashunwe emaphephandabeni avamile ezezimali, okwamanje baphakamisa ukuthi izinkomba zezabelo ze-USA okwamanje ziseduze nevelu efanelekile, abanye baxwayisa ngokuthi amazinga okwehla kaDisemba 2018, angase abe. kufinyelelwe futhi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunokuba ukudayiswa okulandelayo kube ukuqhutshwa kwemizwa, noma yikuphi ukuwa kwesikhathi esizayo, uma kubikezelwe ngenxa yengcindezi yokuwohloka komnotho ebangelwa ukukhokhiswa kwentela okulimaza uhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe, kungase kubangelwe kokubili ukuntuleka kwemizwa kanye namamethrikhi ampofu kakhulu. Kungenjalo, izimakethe zezabelo ze-USA nezinye izinkomba zomhlaba zingakhuphuka; abatshalizimali bangase bamane banganaki amanani entengo futhi bangazinaki amamethrikhi abalulekile, njengokukhula kwe-GDP okuwayo futhi bamane bathenge amadiphu.
Izimakethe ziqhutshwa imizwa kanye nokuzethemba njengoba nje kunjalo ngedatha eqinile. Abaphathi bakaTrump baqale baqinisa ukuzethemba ngo-2017 futhi baqhubekisela phambili imakethe nokusimama komnotho, okwaqala ngaphansi kokuphatha kwangaphambilini. Ukwehliswa kwentela okubanzi okugqugquzelwe izinkampani ngo-2017-2018, okuthatha amanani aphansi njengokungu-15%, kubangele ukuzuza kwemakethe yezabelomali ka-2018. Kodwa-ke, lowo mthelela manje usuyaphela, njengoba kunjalo nokuqiniseka kwe-White House kanye ne-POTUS ukugcina inqubomgomo yezimali engashintshi.
Abanye abahlaziyi basikisela ukuthi uma amanani entengo eqhubeka, ngaphandle kwezimpawu zokuyekethisa, khona-ke okuwukuphela kwendlela izimakethe zokusiza ezingalindela ukuncishiswa kwenani lenzalo lesihloko sesihloko kusuka ku-2.5%. Ukuncishiswa kwenqubomgomo yezimali okungase kudingeke ngenxa yengcindezi egwemeka yokuwohloka komnotho. Ukwehla okungenzeka okungeke kubangwe ukuphela komjikelezo wezomnotho, kodwa ngenxa ye-POTUS, kuzomele okuhlangenwe nakho okuyingqayizivele.
« Ingabe i-RBA, ibhange elikhulu lase-Australia, izokwehlisa izinga lemali libe ngu-1.25% lisuka ku-1.50%, futhi idola lase-Aussie lizosabela kanjani uma lenza kanjalo? Igolide lenyukela ezingeni eliphakeme kakhulu kusukela ngoFebhuwari, izimakethe ziqala intengo ekwehlisweni kwamazinga we-FOMC ngo-2019, ama-FAANGS alahlekelwa ukuluma kwawo. »