IBlack Swan, Ukungasebenzi kanye nokungaziwa
Ingqungquthela yaminyaka yonke yeqembu lase-UK Conservative iphele ngoLwesithathu. Amahlebezi abelokhu esabalala okuthi uhulumeni wobumbano wase-UK usuzongena kwingcindezi enkulu yokunxenxa futhi wehlise inani lentela elingamaphesenti angamashumi amahlanu njengoba, ngokombono wama-Conservatives amaningi, empeleni alinikezi imali eningi eyengeziwe. Kuyasolisa ukuthi izinga eliphezulu lentela liphinde linciphise osomabhizinisi ekusunguleni amabhizinisi amasha. Zombili lezi zinkolelo mancane amathuba okuthi zimelane nokuhlolisiswa. Ukucabanga ukuthi usomabhizinisi uzohlehliswa ukusungula ibhizinisi elisha ngenxa yokukhathazeka ngezinga eliphakeme lentela akunangqondo. Ngokufanayo inani lentela elingamashumi amahlanu wamaphesenti, elisebenza kulabo abahola ngaphezulu kwama- £ 150k ngonyaka, lingahle likhiqize kuze kufike ku- £ 7 billion ngonyaka ngokusho kombimbi wabakhokhi bentela base-UK. Akusona isamba esingasho lutho lapho i-UK ifundiswa nguNdunankulu wayo ukusika isitolo sayo namakhadi esikweletu futhi iphile ngezindlela ezinzima.
Iqembu lentando yeningi lase-USA liqhubekela phambili ngentela 'usozigidi', futhi ngokungafani nombuso wobumbano wase-UK. 'bazenzile izibalo zabo' kahle. Ngezikhanyiso ezinjengoWarren Buffett ezama ukuthola ukwesekwa phakathi koxhumana nabo abaphezulu ngokwenyuka kwentela kwabacebile lezi zimo zingathola ukubambeka. Ngokusho kwe-maths intela eyengeziwe ngamaphesenti amahlanu kulabo abahola u- $ 1 million ngonyaka izokhiqiza imali eyengeziwe engama- $ 450billion ngonyaka. Isamba esikhulu esingasekela eminye imisebenzi yomphakathi ebalulekile e-USA. Uhlelo lwemisebenzi kaMongameli Obama olwembulwe ekuqaleni kukaSepthemba lwaluzobiza cishe ama- $ 477 billion, ngakho-ke labo bantu abacebile bangaziqhenya ngokuthi iminikelo yabo ethe xaxa yentela ikhuphule amathuba emisebenzi ohlelweni olubenze bakwazi ukuzuza ngaleyo ndlela. Abaholi beSenate Democratic bamemezele lesi siphakamiso namuhla njengoba izishayamthetho zizolokhu ziphikisana ngokuthi kuzothuthukiswa kanjani umnotho. Umholi weMajority uHarry Reid, oyiNevada Democrat, uthe namuhla intela ka-5% izokhiqiza kuze kufike ku- $ 450 billion. AmaDemokhrasi alinga amaRephabliki, enqaba ukwenyuka kwentela, ukuvimba uhlelo.
Abangaziwa, iqembu lezishoshovu ezihlasela abantu kumawebhusayithi ezinkampani nakuhulumeni, lifunge ukuthi lizosula i-New York Stock Exchange "kwi-Intanethi" ngo-Okthoba 10. Leli qembu lithumele umyalezo ku-YouTube umemezela impi ngesitoko esikhulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni ngenhloso yokuziphindiselela ngokuboshwa ngobuningi kwababhikishi baseWall Street. Umlayezo awuzange uchaze ukuthi ngabe usongo lolo lubhekise ekuhlaselweni kwewebhusayithi ye-NYSE, okungeke kube namthelela ekuhwebeni. Ongaziwa wethule ukuphika okuningana kokuhlaselwa kwensiza kumawebhusayithi ezinyangeni ezimbalwa, kufaka phakathi isenzo ngoDisemba ngokumelene neziza zeMasterCard Inc. neVisa Inc.
Lesi songo siphikiswa ngamanye amalungu e-Anonymous, athe ku-Twitter awazange avunyelwe. Okubhalwe ku-Annnews.org kuthe cishe akunakwenzeka ukuqinisekisa ukusebenza ngenxa yesimo se-Anonymous njengenhlangano “engenazihibe ngokwezigaba.”
UNassim Taleb, umbhali wencwadi ethengiswa kakhulu kunazo zonke ethi “The Black Swan,” usho namuhla engqungqutheleni yezindaba eKiev ukuthi izinxushunxushu ezikhona ezimakethe zomhlaba zimbi kakhulu kunezi-2008 ngoba amazwe anjenge-US anemithwalo emikhulu yezikweletu.
Impela, sibhekene nenkinga enkulu manje futhi sizokhokha inani eliphakeme. Isakhiwo senkinga asikaqondakali. Asenzanga lutho olwakhayo eminyakeni emithathu nengxenye. Akekho ofuna ukwenza noma yini eshubile manje.
UTaleb wandisa igama elithi "black swan", elisuselwa enkolelweni eyake yande yaseNtshonalanga yokuthi zonke izinhlanzi zazimhlophe kuze kube yilapho abahloli bamazwe bethola izinhlobo ezimnyama e-Australia ngo-1697. ukuhlaziywa kubikezela, ngaleyo ndlela kuvunyelwe izindleko eziphakeme zokubiyela izinhlekelele.
Abaqashi baseMelika bamemezele ukuncishiswa kwemisebenzi kakhulu eminyakeni emibili ngoSepthemba, beholwa ukwehliswa kweBank of America Corp kanye namasosha. Ukudutshulwa okwamenyezelwa kweqa amaphesenti angama-212, okuyisibalo esikhulu ukwenyuka kusukela ngoJanuwari 2009, saya ku-115,730 ngenyanga edlule sisuka ku-37,151 ngoSepthemba 2010, ngokusho kweChicago-based Challenger, Grey & Christmas Inc. Ukusika ekuqashweni kukahulumeni, eholwa uhlelo lweMpi lokunciphisa iminyaka emihlanu, futhi e-Bank of America kwaba cishe amaphesenti angama-70 wezimemezelo. Ukwehla kwezinsizakalo zomsebenzi, bekungqubuzana nombiko ohlukile we-payrolls processor ADP okhombisa ukuthi amaholo azimele akhuphuke ngo-91,000, ngaphezu kwalokho obekulindelwe osomnotho ukwanda kwama-75,000. I-ADP ithe iningi lezinzuzo, elidlule isibalo sika-Agasti esingu-89,000, livela emkhakheni wezinsizakalo.
Amasheya aqoqekile futhi izimpahla zanciphisa ukuwa kwazo kwezinsuku ezintathu njengoba imininingwane yezomnotho yase-US ifaka ukulinganisela nethemba likhula lokuthi abaholi baseYurophu bazogcina benikeze amabhange amandla amasha. Amasheya wamandla ahola inzuzo njengoba uwoyela wanda kulandela ukwehla okungalindelekile kwempahla. I-SPX inyuke ngo-1.8 wamaphesenti ukuvala ngo-1,144.03 ngo-4 ntambama ngesikhathi saseNew York, yengeza ekwenyukeni kwamaphesenti angu-2.3 izolo okumaka inzuzo enkulu yezinsuku ezimbili ngenyanga. I-Stoxx Europe 600 Index inyuke ngamaphesenti ayi-3.1, yamisa ukuwa kwezinsuku ezintathu. I-S & P GSCI Index yezimpahla inyuke ngo-2.8% njengoba u-oyela wakhuphuka ngo-5.3% waya ku- $ 79.68 emgqonyeni, wenyuka usuka kumaphesenti ayi-7.9 wehla ezinkambisweni ezintathu ezedlule. Ikusasa le-index ye-equity index yase-UK liphakamisa ukuvulwa kancane kuseshini yaseLondon, inkomba okwamanje inyuke ngo-0.5%. ikusasa le-SPX liphansi cishe ngo-0.3%.
Ukukhishwa kwedatha yezomnotho okungathinta imizwa ezinhlelweni zasekuseni eLondon naseYurophu kufaka lokhu okulandelayo;
09:30 UK - Inkomba Yezinsizakalo ngoJulayi
I-12: I-00 UK - Isimemezelo Sesilinganiso se-MPC
12: 45 Isaziso se-Eurozone - ECB
Isibikezelo ukuthi womabili amazinga e-UK ne-ECB azogcinwa emazingeni afanayo. Kwakunamahemuhemu akhula ekuqaleni kukaSepthemba ukuthi i-ECB ibicabanga ukwehlisa izinga lesisekelo, kepha, ngenxa yokwenyuka okumangazayo kukwehla kwamandla emali e-Europe okuvezwe ngesonto eledlule, izinga lenyuka ngamaphesenti aphelele asuka ku-2.5-3%, noma yikuphi ukwehliswa kwezinga lesisekelo akunakwenzeka.
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