Amanothi Esikhathini Sase-Asia
Ngemuva kwezikhathi ezine ezilandelanayo zokushaya, amanani egolide esikhathi esizayo anyukela phezulu ekuqaleni kweGlobex ngamaphesenti angaphezu kwesigamu sephesenti phakathi nethemba lemizuzu yeFed ekhombise ukuxhaswa kwamalungu amaningana ukwengezwa kwemali okwengeziwe uma ukuvuseleleka komnotho kungalahlekelwa umfutho.
Yize inani le-GDP yaseJapan lidlule izilinganiso, amasheya awakhombisi ukuthambekela ethembeni, kepha ama-bourses aseChina acaphuna okuluhlaza njengoba ukunciphisa kwabo imali kuzosebenza kusukela kusasa.
Okwamanje, i-Euro isingenile esicabanga ukuthi ukudonsela emuva nje. Njengoba kuhoxiswe ama-Euro angaphezu kwe-1trillion kuleli sonto, amabhange aseGrisi kuzodingeka ukuthi enziwe kabusha amandla futhi kukhona i-echo yeLTRO3. Kepha kungokokuqala ukuthi i-ECB iyeke ukubolekiswa okwesikhashana emabhange aseGrisi njengoba engasebenzi kahle. Lokhu kuzobeka ingcindezi kwi-Euro futhi ukwesaba okuxakile kokuphuma kwamaGrikhi kungaphinda kuphazamise imizwa.
Ngakho-ke, ukwesaba ukutheleleka kanye nokwenqatshwa okungenzeka kwezinyathelo zokuqina ngoJuni 17 okhethweni olusha kungabeka i-Euro nezinye izigaba zamafa engcupheni. Igolide nalo alihlukile kulokhu. Kusukela ngaphambili kwedatha yezomnotho, ukukhiqizwa kwe-US kungakhombisa ukuthuthuka kanye nezimangalo ezingenamsebenzi nazo zingancipha ngemuva kokuthi imisebenzi yokukhiqiza ithuthukile.
Lokhu kungasekela idola kusihlwa. Okushiwo ngenhla, iGolide kulindeleke ukuthi lihlale liboshelwe usuku njengoba kulindelwe ukubuyela emuva kobuchwepheshe. Kodwa-ke, njengoba kuxoxiwe, ukukhathazeka akulona igolide okwamanje. Ngakho-ke, noma ngabe ukubuyela emuva kubonakala, kungahle kungayicindezeli ngezinga eliphakeme kakhulu.
Izintengo zesikhathi esizayo zesiliva nazo zihweba kakhulu ngemuva kwezikhathi eziyisikhombisa ezilandelanayo zokuwa.
Njengoba kuxoxwe ngazo umbono wegolide, lokhu kukhuphuka kulindeleke ukuthi kube ukubuyela emuva nje ngoba azikho izizathu ezinje zokuthi imakethe ibe nethemba elikhulu ngaphandle kokuphawula izolo kwe-FOMC ngomnyango ovulekile wokuncipha okulandelayo.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuphuma kweGrisi yinto ekhathazayo njengamanje njengoba i-ECB nayo iyekile ukubolekisa ngamabhange abo njengoba labo bengasebenzi kahle.
Ngakho-ke silindele ukuthi i-Euro ihlale ingaphansi kwengcindezi yingakho isiliva lingawa uma iYurophu ivula. Ukukhishwa komnotho wase-US nakho kusekela umnotho ongabeka ingcindezi kusihlwa. Ngakho-ke isiliva kulindeleke ukuthi lihlale livalelwe ebangeni.
Njengamanje ngesikhathi sokuqala sase-Asia, amanani entengo kawoyela ongahluziwe athengiswa ngaphezu kwama- $ 93 / bbl ngenzuzo engaphezu kwamasenti angu-0.40 epulatifomu kagesi yeGlobex.
Iningi lamasheya ase-Asia livule ngenothi elihle, liqhutshwa yizinombolo ezingaphezu kwezilindelekile ze-GDP ezibikwe ezivela eJapan. Ngakho-ke, amanani kawoyela kungenzeka ukuthi athathe imikhondo emihle emakethe yokuhweba ngokulingana. Ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni kweJapan kulindeleke nokuthi kukhuphuke, okungaxhasa amanani entengo kawoyela ukuthi ahlale ohlangothini oluphakeme esimisweni sase-Asia.
Okubaluleke kakhulu, ukuthi kusukela emizuzwini yomhlangano womhlangano we-FOMC okhishwe izolo ebusuku kukhombise uphawu oluluhlaza lokwehlisa inani lesithathu uma kuzobonakala ukwehla komnotho. Izinga eliphansi lokusweleka kwemisebenzi, ukwenza ngcono ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni kanye nomkhakha wezindlu okhulayo wase-US kusitshengisa ukuthi sithuthukisa isimo sezomnotho. Ngakho-ke, amanani entengo kawoyela angahweba ohlangothini oluphakeme ngokuqagela kokufunwa okukhulu okuvela esizweni esidla uwoyela emhlabeni wonke i-US. Kodwa-ke, ukukhathazeka ngokuphuma kweGrisi kusesemakethe yezezimali yeGlobal, ngemuva kwesitatimende esinamandla esinikezwe uSihlalo we-ECB uMario Draghi.
I-ECB ithe ngeke ihlehlise ezimisweni ezibalulekile zokugcina iGreece isendaweni ye-Euro. Ngakho-ke, ukuqagela okukhulayo kweGrisi ukuphuma endaweni ye-Euro kuyaqina okungahle kugcine i-Euro ingaphansi kwengcindezi.
Ngakho-ke, amanani kawoyela angashayela umkhuba we-bearish ngesikhathi saseYurophu. Esikhathini sase-US, imakethe izobheka imininingwane yezicelo zamasonto onke ezingenamsebenzi zase-US okulindeleke ukuthi zehle, kanti enye yezinkomba ezinkulu zokukhiqiza ezonyuka ngoMeyi. Ngakho-ke, ukubuyela emuva kuseshini yase-US kulindelwe esikhundleni sokulindela okuhle kwedatha okuvela e-US.
Yize kunjalo, namuhla usuku lokuguqulwa kwamapayipi Seaway okuzonciphisa ukuqhuma kwamasheya kusuka kwaCushing. Ngakho-ke, uma kukhona izindaba ngalokhu okufika emakethe amanani kawoyela angahle asuke ekuthambekeni kwawo.
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