Ingabe isikhathi esilahlekile njengamanje ngibhekene necebo lami, noma ngamashwa nje ngemicimbi 'engaphandle'?

Eph 18 • Phakathi kwemigqa • Ukubukwa okungu-13840 • 1 Comment on Ngabe isikhathi esilahlekile njengamanje ngibhekene necebo lami, noma ngamashwa nje ngemicimbi 'engaphandle'?

shutterstock_99173453Inhlanhla yigama elinempikiswano kakhulu nezimo ezinokuphikisana ngokufanayo ekuhwebeni. Ngemuva kokuchitha izinyanga futhi ezimweni eziningi iminyaka sakha isu lokuhweba eliphumelelayo, ukuze ekugcineni sizinikele ohlelweni lwethu lokuhweba ngobufakazi bezinhlamvu, kunzima kakhulu kunoma ngubani wethu ukwamukela ukuthi into enkulu equkethwe yimpumelelo yethu yokuhweba isikhathi eside isephansi ezimweni ezilula zenhlanhla.

Ukwamukela ukuthi sisemseni wemakethe nokuthi akekho kithi ongakwazi ukubikezela, ngokuqiniseka okujwayelekile, ukuthi imakethe izokwenzani ngokulandelayo kungumqondo onzima kakhulu abaningi bethu abangawuqonda. Kunzima ukwamukela umbono wokuthi amaphesenti amakhulu okuhweba kwethu kuzofanele abe yilahleko ukuze sikwazi ukuzuza njalo. Yomibili le mibono ithi, njengoba sishilo kulawa makholomu phambilini, iphikisana nenqubo yokuthi 'sixhunywe izintambo' kanjani ekufinyeleleni izivivinyo eziningi nezilingo imboni yethu esiphoqa ukuba sibhekane nazo nsuku zonke nangesonto ngalinye.

Ngemuva kokuthi sichithe izinyanga eziningi (noma iminyaka) ukudala isu lethu lokuhweba eliphumelelayo futhi sisebenzise isikhathi esilinganayo ngokulinganayo ukuthuthukisa ukuzithiba ukuze sinamathele kuhlelo lwethu lokuhweba, kungaba yinkinga enkulu lapho ukuhweba kwethu Isu liqala ukwehluleka futhi kungenzeka sifinyelele, noma sesiqala ukusongela amazinga okudonsela phansi esiwafaka ohlelweni lwethu lokuhweba. Kepha ngasiphi isikhathi lapho siyekela khona isu lethu necebo kuyisiphakamiso esinzima ukubhekana naso.

Ukuthi sithatha kanjani isinyathelo esingenamizwa emuva, ukuze siqhubeke nokuhlaziya amasu ethu, ngaphambi kokuwasebenzisa noma ukuwalahla ngokuphelele, kungenye yezivivinyo ezinkulu esizobhekana nazo njengabahwebi futhi ngezindlela eziningi lokhu 'kuvivinywa kwempilo yomthengisi' kuzosichaza njengabahwebi. Futhi ekuhlaziyeni kabusha isu lethu lokuhweba singaqala ukuthola ukuthi inhlanhla ibambe iqhaza yini ekulahlekelweni kwethu kwakamuva. Kepha sizibheka kuphi izimpawu emlandweni wethu wakamuva wokuhweba wokuthi inhlanhla elula ibambe iqhaza elikhulu ekuhwebeni kwethu nokuthi akukho lutho olungalungile ngendlela yethu nangecebo lokuhweba lilonke?

Ama-Outliers *, ayini maqondana nokuhweba nokuthi angafuna kuphi izimpawu zawo

Njengoba abafundi abajwayelekile bamakholomu ethu bezobe betholile ukuthi sishicilela udaba lwamasonto onke olunesihloko esithi “ngabe umkhuba usengumngani wakho?” lapho sihlaziya khona okwasemuva okuyisisekelo okuzonquma ukushicilelwa okunomthelela ophakeme waleli sonto nezinqumo zenqubomgomo. Ukuhlanganiswa nalokhu siphinde sifinyelele ifomu eliyisisekelo kakhulu lokuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe sisebenzisa izinkomba eziningi ezisetshenziswa kakhulu nezikhonjiswe. Okuqaphelekile muva nje kube wumphumela walokho esingakubiza ngama-outliers kanye nomthelela abanawo ezimakethe esizithengisayo.

Okuvelele kakhulu kube yizinkinga e-Ukraine, njengoba kuqale ukungezwani esifundeni saseCrimea izimakethe zithengisiwe, ikakhulukazi kuma-equity European indices bese kuba yi-euro. Njengoba izinkinga sehlehlile izimakethe zaqala ukubuyela ezinhlotsheni zazo. Lapho-ke besinokungabaza ukuthi (njengoba inkathi yokuhola iqala e-USA) izinkampani eziningi zobuchwepheshe ezicashunwe ku-NASDAQ empeleni bekufanele ukulinganiswa okukhulu kuqhathaniswa nemali abayitholayo njengamanje. Ngemuva kwalokho sithole ukululama, kepha ezinsukwini ezimbili ezedlule ukwesaba kwe-Ukraine kuphinde kwavela njengezimpi ezihlomile phakathi kwamaqembu anobungane aseRussia emadolobheni amaningi e-Ukraine kanye neziphathimandla kuhulumeni omusha wase-Ukraine. bafinyelele esiphethweni esinobudlova.

Manje ukubheka zonke lezi zinkinga zakamuva zodwa, noma njengeqoqo, abathengisi abaningi bazobe bezitholile ngezikhathi ezithile, kuya ngokuthi bayabathengisa noma abadayisi bezinsuku, ohlangothini olungafanele lwemakethe abahambanga ngaphandle kwephutha okwabo ngaphandle kokunamathela kuhlelo lwabo. Iqiniso nje ukuthi uhlu esilunikeze ngomsebenzi wakamuva lwalungenakwenzeka ukuba abathengisi abaningi bahwebe emasontweni amuva nje, ikakhulukazi abathengisi be-swing futhi ngaphambi kokuba siqale ukwengeza kuzo zonke ezinye izindlela ezijwayelekile eziyisisekelo njengezinqumo zezinga lesisekelo, ukungasebenzi kanye ezinye izibalo zedatha yezomnotho. Njengokungathi ubungcweti bethu abukhohlisi ngokwanele kudingeke ukuthi silwe nokuhlukahluka okuyinkimbinkimbi kwezinkinga eziyisisekelo emasontweni amuva nje, akumangazi ukuthi abaningi bethu bazobe belahlekelwe ngumhlaba wesikhashana okusishiya singabaza indlela yethu yonke namasu ethu okuhweba.

Akunakwenzeka ukubikezela ukuthi abathengisi bezibalo bazokwenzeka nini futhi kunzima ngokufanayo ukubona ukuthi kungenzeka sibe semugqeni wokudubula komcimbi ongaphandle njengoba kwenzeka njengoba iningi labathengisi bebhizinisi lethu kungezona izibalo ezihlanzekile zabathengisi bezibalo kanye nezibalo, ekubhekeni emuva, khomba. Ngaphezu kwalokho, asikwazi ukuhweba okwedlule okwaziwa ochwepheshe bethu bezibalo nezibalo.

Kepha esingakwenza, njengoba ulwazi lwethu lukhula, ukulungisa 'izimpondo zethu zokuhweba' ukuze sazi lapho siphakathi kwabathengisi be-maelstrom abangadala futhi abazobangela. Sibe nokukhetha okubili okulula; ukuhweba noma cha ukuhweba…

Kungenzeka ukuthi sihweba ngesivunguvungu esivela ngaphandle, noma sizingele phansi futhi ngokudabukisayo ukubheka emuva kuzosikhombisa ukuthi yisiphi isinqumo esifanele. Kodwa-ke, ngenkathi kungokwemvelo ukubuza indlela yakho namasu ngesikhathi sokwenzeka ngaphandle ngaphandle kokungabaza kungaba yisikhathi esingalungile sokushintsha noma ukumisa indlela ebifakazelwe ngaphambili. Isikhathi sokucabanga kufanele size lapho sesikhombe lezo zimo 'ezijwayelekile' zokuhweba, noma njengejwayelekile njengoba singalindela emhlabeni onamandla wokuhweba i-FX, izinkomba, noma izimpahla, sesibuyele futhi endaweni yethu yokuhweba.

* Incazelo yama-outliers

Ezibalweni, i-outlier iphuzu lokubuka elikude kakhulu nokunye okubonwayo. [1] I-outlier ingahle ibangelwe ukwehluka kusilinganiso noma ingakhombisa iphutha lokuhlola; lezi zokugcina ngezinye izikhathi ziyakhishwa kusethi yedatha. [2]

Ama-Outliers angenzeka ngengozi kunoma ikuphi ukusatshalaliswa, kepha imvamisa akhombisa ukuthi kunephutha lesilinganiso noma ukuthi inani labantu linokusatshalaliswa okunzima. Esimweni esidlule umuntu ufisa ukuzilahla noma asebenzise izibalo ezinamandla kubantu abathengisa ngaphandle, ngenkathi kulokhu okukhombisa ukuthi ukusatshalaliswa kune-kurtosis ephezulu nokuthi umuntu kufanele aqaphele kakhulu ekusebenziseni amathuluzi noma ama-intuitions acabanga ukusatshalaliswa okujwayelekile. Imbangela ejwayelekile yabathengisa ngaphandle iyinhlanganisela yokwabiwa okubili, okungaba ngabantu abancane abahlukene, noma kungakhombisa 'isilingo esifanele' uma kuqhathaniswa 'nephutha lokulinganisa'; lokhu kulinganiswa ngemodeli yenhlanganisela.

Kuma-sampling wedatha amakhulu kakhulu, amanye amaphuzu wedatha azoba kude kakhulu nencazelo yesampula kunalokho okubonakala kunengqondo. Lokhu kungabangelwa amaphutha ahlelekile ahlelekile noma amaphutha kumcabango okhiqize umndeni ocatshangelwayo wokusatshalaliswa kwamathuba, noma kungenzeka ukuthi okunye ukubonwa kukude kakhulu nendawo yedatha. Amaphuzu angaphambili angakhombisa idatha engalungile, izinqubo eziyiphutha, noma izindawo lapho umbono othile ungahle ungasebenzi. Kodwa-ke, kumasampula amakhulu, inani elincane labathengisi bezimpahla kufanele lilindelwe (hhayi ngenxa yesimo esibi).

Ama-Outliers, okuwukubonwa okwedlulele kakhulu, angafaka isilinganiso esiphakeme sesampula noma isampula, noma zombili, kuya ngokuthi ziphakeme kakhulu noma ziphansi kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, ubukhulu besampula nobuncane abuhlali butholakala ngaphandle ngoba kungenzeka bungabi kude ngokungajwayelekile kokunye ukubonwa.   
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