Ingabe isikhathi sokulahlekelwa ngisuke ngibhekene necebo lami, noma inhlanhla nje ngezenzakalo 'zangaphandle'?

Apr 18 • Phakathi kwemigqa • Ukubuka kwe-9064 • 1 Comment Ngabe isikhathi sokulahlekelwa ngisalokhu sibhekene necebo lami, noma inhlanhla nje ngezenzakalo 'zangaphandle'?

shutterstock_99173453Inhlanhla yizwi eliphikisana kakhulu kanye nezinto eziphikisanayo ngokulinganayo ekuhwebeni. Sebeqede izinyanga futhi ezimweni eziningi iminyaka yokudala isu lokuhweba lokuwina, ukuze ekugcineni sizinikele ohlelweni lwethu lokuhweba ubufakazi, kubaluleke kanzima ukuthi noma ubani wethu avume ukuthi into enkulu kakhulu equkethwe empumelelo yethu yokuhweba yesikhathi eside iphansi ezenzweni ezilula zenhlanhla.

Ukwamukela ukuthi sisesimweni semakethe nokuthi akekho kithi ongakwazi ukubikezela, nganoma yiliphi izinga elijwayelekile lokuqiniseka, lokho okuzokwenza emakethe ngokulandelayo ngumqondo onzima kakhulu ukuthi abaningi bethu bawuqonde. Kunzima ukwamukela umbono wokuthi amaphesenti amakhulu emisebenzi yethu izolahlekelwa ukuze sihlale sinenzuzo. Zombili lezi zizathu zithi, njengoba sishilo kulezi zikholomu ngaphambilini, ngokuncintisana nokuthi 'siphiwe' kanjani ukubhekana nokuvivinya nokuhlolwa okuningi imboni yethu isishukumisela ukuba sihlangane kuze kube njalo njalo nasesontweni.

Ngemuva kokuthi sichithe izinyanga eziningi (noma iminyaka) ukudala isu lethu lokuhweba eliphumelelayo futhi sisebenzise isikhathi esilingana nesilinganiso sokuthuthukisa ukuzimela ukuze sinamathele ohlelweni lwethu lokuhweba, kungabonakala kube nzima lapho ukuhweba kwethu isu liqala ukwehluleka futhi singafinyelela, noma sesiqala ukusongela amazinga okudonsa esiwafaka ohlelweni lwethu lokuhweba. Kodwa ngaluphi iphuzu esiyekela kuloluhlelo lwethu kanye nesuhlelo kuyisiphakamiso esinzima sokubhekana nalokhu.

Indlela esiyithatha ngayo isinyathelo esingenasici, ukuze sihlaziye isu lethu, ngaphambi kokuyiqeda noma ukuyiyeka ngokuphelele, ingenye yezivivinyo ezinkulu esizobhekana nazo njengabadayisi nangezindlela eziningi lokhu 'kuvivinywa kokuphila komthengisi' kuzosichaza njengabadayisi. Futhi ekuhlaziyeni kabusha isu lethu lokuhweba singakwazi ukuqala ukuthola noma ngabe inhlanhla ibambe iqhaza ekulahlekeni kwethu kwamuva. Kodwa sibhekaphi izibonakaliso emlandweni wethu wamuva wezokuhweba ukuthi inhlanhla elula eye yaba nendima ebalulekile ekuhwebeni kwethu nokuthi akukho lutho olungalungile ngendlela yethu nendlela yokuhweba jikelele?

Ama-Outliers *, ukuthi yiziphi izinto ngokwezokuhweba nokuthi ungabheka kuphi izimpawu zazo

Njengabafundi abavamile bekholomu yethu kuzodlalisa ukuthi sishicilele isihloko esivela masonto onke esibizwa ngokuthi "ingabe umkhuba usengumngane wakho?" Lapho sihlaziya khona isimo esiyisisekelo esizocacisa ukushicilela okuphezulu kwamasonto kanye nezinqumo zenqubomgomo. Njengoba sinesisindo salokhu sibuye sibe nesimo esiyisisekelo kakhulu sokuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe esisebenzisa okuningi okuvame ukusetshenziswa futhi okubhekiswe ezinkomba. Okuye kwaphawula kwamuva kwaba umphumela walokho esizobe sisebenzela isikhathi esizayo futhi kuthinteka ukuthi baya emakethe esihwebayo.

Umklomelo ovelele kakhulu ube yizimpikiswano e-Ukraine, njengoba izingxabano zaqala phezu kwesifunda saseCrimea izimakethe zithengiswa, ikakhulukazi ezilinganisweni ze-European equity kanye ne-euro. Njengoba izinkinga ezithengisa izimakethe zaqala ukuvuselelwa kwezinhlobo. Khona-ke sasingabaza ukuthi (njengemali yokuhola imali yaqala eU.SA) izinkampani eziningi zobuciko ezicashunwe ku-NASDAQ zifanelwe ukulinganisa okukhulu ngokuhambisana nomholo wabo okwamanje abakubonisayo. Khona-ke siye sabona ukuphulukiswa, kodwa ngezinsuku ezimbili ezedlule ukwesaba kwe-Ukraine sekuphinde kwavela njengezingxabano eziphakathi kwezigaba ezinobungane zaseRussia emadolobheni amaningi ase-Ukraine kanye neziphathimandla ezisendlini entsha yase-Ukraine. sebefinyelele isiphetho esinamandla.

Manje ngokubuka zonke lezi zindaba zamuva nje, noma njengeqoqo, abathengi abaningi bazobe bezitholile ngezikhathi ezithile, kuye ngokuthi noma ngabe bangabathengisi be-swing noma abahwebi bamalanga, ngakwesobunxele emakethe kuhamba ngaphandle kwephutha ngokwabo ngaphandle kokunamathela ohlelweni lwabo. Ngokucacile uhlu olunikezile lomsebenzi wamanje kwakungenakwenzeka ukuba abahwebi abaningi bakwazi ukuhweba ngamasonto amuva nje, ikakhulukazi abadayisi be-swing futhi ngaphambi kokuba siqale ukungeza kuzo zonke ezinye izindlela eziyisisekelo ezifana nezinqumo zesilinganiso sokuqala, ukungasebenzi ezinye izibalo zezomnotho. Njengokuthi umsebenzi wethu wawungekho okhohlisayo ngokwanele kuye kwadingeka sibhekane nezinhlobonhlobo eziyinkimbinkimbi zezinkinga ezibalulekile emasontweni amuva nje, kuncane kakhulu ukuthi abaningi bethu bazolahlekelwa phansi okwesikhashana okwesikhashana besishiya ukungabaza indlela yethu yokusebenza nendlela yokuhweba.

Akunakwenzeka ukubikezela ukuthi izakhamuzi zezibalo zizokwenzeka nini futhi kunzima ukuqonda ukuthi singase sibe emgqeni wokudubula wezehlakalo ezingaphandle, njengoba kuqhutshwa njengabaningi bezezimboni ebhizinisini lethu akuzona izibalo ezihlanzekile zezibalo zabathengi nabathengi, ekubuyiseleni, phawula. Ngaphezu kwalokho, asikwazi ukuhweba okwedlule ukuthi izibalo zethu nezibalo zezibalo zikhomba.

Kodwa lokho esingakwenza, njengoba isipiliyoni sethu sikhula, sishintsha 'izinsimbi zethu zokuhweba' ukuze siqaphele lapho sisemkhatsini wezintambo zangaphandle ezikhona futhi ezingabangela. Sinezinqumo ezimbili ezilula; ukuhweba noma ukuhweba ...

Singahweba ngesikhukhula esivela ngaphandle, noma ukuzingela phansi futhi ngokudabukisayo ukubuka nje kuzosikhombisa ukuthi yisiphi isinqumo esifanele. Kodwa-ke, kuyilapho kungokwemvelo ukubuza indlela yakho kanye nesistimu ngesikhathi sokuvela ngaphandle ngaphandle kokungabaza kungaba yisikhathi esingalungile sokushintsha noma ukumisa indlela evezwe ngaphambilini. Isikhathi sokucabangela kufanele sifike lapho sithole ukuthi izimo zokuhweba 'ezijwayelekile', noma njengokuvamile njengoba singalindela ezweni eliguquguqukayo lokuhweba ama-indix, ama-indices noma izimpahla, siphindele futhi endaweni yethu yokuhweba.

* Incazelo yama-outliers

Kuzibalo, i-outlier yindawo yokubona okude kakhulu nakweminye imibono. [1] Umuntu ongaphandle angase abe ngenxa yokuhluka kwesilinganiso noma kungabonisa iphutha lokuhlola; ngezinye izikhathi lezi zikhathi ezithile zingasuswa kwisethi yedatha. [2]

Ama-outliers angenzeka ngengozi kunoma yikuphi ukusatshalaliswa, kodwa ngokuvamile avame ukubonisa iphutha lokulinganisa noma ukuthi inani labantu linokusabalalisa okunzima kakhulu. Esikhathini esidlule omunye ufisa ukuwalahleka noma ukusebenzisa izibalo eziqinile kuma-outliers, kuyilapho okwenzeka kamuva kubonisa ukuthi ukusatshalaliswa kune-kurtosis ephezulu nokuthi umuntu kufanele aqaphe kakhulu ekusebenziseni amathuluzi noma izintulo ezithatha ukusatshalaliswa okujwayelekile. Isizathu esivame ukuqhutshwa kwezingaphandle kukhona ingxube yemikhakha emibili, okungaba ngamaphesenti amabili ahlukene, noma kungabonisa 'ukulingwa okulungile' ngokuhambisana 'nesiphambeko sokulinganisa'; lokhu kuhlonyiswa imodeli yenhlanganisela.

Ezinkampanini eziningi ze-data, amanye amaphoyinti wedatha azobe eseceleni kwesilinganiso sesampula kunalokho okubonwa ukuthi kunengqondo. Lokhu kungenziwa ngenxa yephutha elihlelekile elihlelekile noma amaphutha kumqondo owadala umndeni ocatshangelwayo wokusabalalisa, noma kungenzeka ukuthi ezinye izinto ezikude ziphakathi nendawo yedatha. Ngakho-ke amaphuzu angaphandle angabonisa idatha engalungile, izinqubo ezingalungile, noma izindawo lapho inkolelo ethile ingase ingabi khona. Kodwa-ke, kuma-sampuli amakhulu, inani elincane lezinkampani ezithengiswayo kufanele zilindeleke (hhayi ngenxa yesimo esibi).

Ama-outliers, okuyiwona okuqaphele kakhulu, angase afaka isampula esiphezulu noma isampula encane, noma kokubili, kuye ngokuthi ngabe iphezulu kakhulu noma iphansi. Kodwa-ke, isampuli esiphezulu nesincane asizona zonke izindawo ezingaphandle ngoba zingase zingabi ngokungajwayelekile ngokweminye imibono.
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