Septhemba 13 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-8080 • 1 Comment e-Australia, kungani abathengisi 'bokuqhuma nobumnyama' bezulazula futhi belola imimese yabo?
Kuwo wonke ama-maelstrom wezezimali womhlaba wonke abelokhu ekhona kusukela ngo-2007-2008 i-Australia ibilokhu iqinisa lo mkhuba. Ngisho nochungechunge oludabukisayo lwezikhukhula olwehlela ngoJan kulo nyaka (2011) lubonakale lushayisa izwe elikhulu okwesikhashana kusuka ekuthembekeni kwe-gyroscopic njengombuso omkhulu womhlaba. I-GDP ngayinye ye-Australia iphakeme kunaleyo yase-UK, Germany, neFrance ngokuya ngokulingana kwamandla. Izwe labekwa endaweni yesibili ku-United Nations 2009 Human Development Index futhi lihlala likleliswe phezulu enkombeni ye-The Economist esezingeni lomhlaba jikelele.
I-Australia ingenye yezomnotho othuthuka ngokushesha emhlabeni. I-IMF ibikezela ukuthi i-Australia izodlula yonke eminye iminotho esezingeni eliphakeme ngo-2011 ngenxa yokwanda okuqhubekayo kwesidingo samaShayina sezimpahla zase-Australia. Ngo-2010, i-Australia yathumela izimpahla eziyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama- $ 48.6 eChina, okuyizikhathi eziyisishiyagalolunye ngaphezu kweminyaka eyishumi eyedlule. Imboni yezimayini inenzuzo enkulu, ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi ngaphandle kuthengise ngaphezu kwengxenye yokuthunyelwa kwe-Australia eChina. Izimayini nokulima kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhube ukukhula komnotho wase-Australia kungekudala. I-Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences ibikezela ukuthi umkhiqizo wezimayini uzokhuphuka ngamaphesenti ayi-10.2 ngo-2010-2011 kuthi umkhiqizo wepulazi ungakhuphuka ngamaphesenti angama-8.9.
Umnotho wase-Australia kulindeleke ukuthi ukhule eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo. U-2011 kuya ku-2015 angabona iGDP yase-Australia ikhula ngo-4.81 iye kuma-5.09 amaphesenti minyaka yonke. Ekupheleni konyaka we-2015, i-GDP yase-Australia kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngama-US $ 1.122 trillion. I-GDP yase-Australia ngomuntu ngamunye kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule kahle. Ngo-2010, i-GDP yase-Australia ngomuntu ngamunye yayiyindawo yeshumi ephezulu emhlabeni - ikhula isuka ku-US $ 38,633.17 ngo-2009 yaya ku-US $ 39,692.06. Ngo-2011, i-GDP yase-Australia ngomuntu ngamunye ingakhuphuka ngamaphesenti angu-3.52 iye kuma-US $ 41,089.17. Iminyaka emine elandelayo ingabona ukukhula okungaguquguquki kwi-GDP yase-Australia ngomuntu ngamunye, okuholele ekutheni kube ne-GDP ngomuntu ngamunye we-US $ 47,445.58 ngasekupheleni kuka-2015.
Izibalo zakamuva ezikhishwe yi-Australian Bureau of Statistics zikhombisa ukuthi ibhalansi yezwe lezimpahla nezinsizakalo lifinyelele enqwabeni elungiswe ngesikhathi sonyaka engama- $ 1.826 billion ngenyanga. Umnotho wase-Australia ukhule kakhulu esigabeni sesibili ngokukhula okuphezulu kunokulindelekile okungamaphesenti ayi-1.2 okuqhutshwa ngotshalo-mali lwebhizinisi, ukusetshenziswa kwemali yasendlini kanye nokwakhiwa kwezimpahla. U-Annette Beacher, oyinhloko yocwaningo lwe-Asia-Pacific kwa-TD Securities ulindele ukuthi i-GDP inyuke iye kumaphesenti ama-2 ngonyaka ka-2011 no-4.5% ngonyaka olandelayo.
Ngokwesibalo samazinga okungaqashwa ahlinzekwa yi-IMF, ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi kuzokwehla kancane kancane kube ngu-5.025% ngasekupheleni kuka-2012. Ngemuva kwalokho, balindele ukuthi izinga lokungasebenzi (kusuka ngo-2013 kuya ku-2015) lihlale limi ku-4.8%.
Njengeminye iminotho eminingi esezingeni eliphakeme Umnotho wase-Australia uphethwe umkhakha wezinsizakalo zawo, omele ama-68% we-GDP yase-Australia, ukusetshenziswa kwabathengi kuyingxenye enkulu. Ukukhula emkhakheni wezinsizakalo kukhule kakhulu, izinsiza zezakhiwo nezamabhizinisi zikhule zisuka ku-10% zaya ku-14.5% we-GDP ngesikhathi esifanayo, okwenza kwaba yingxenye eyodwa enkulu ye-GDP yomkhakha. Lokhu kukhula kube ngenxa yomkhakha wezokukhiqiza, owathi ngo-2006-07 wabalelwa ku-12% we-GDP. Eminyakeni eyishumi ngaphambili, kwakuwumkhakha omkhulu kunayo yonke emnothweni, obala ngaphezulu nje kwe-15% le-GDP. Izindawo zamanje ezikhathaza abanye abezomnotho zifaka phakathi ukusilela kwe-akhawunti kwamanje e-Australia, ukungabi bikho kwemboni yezokukhiqiza ephumelele ukuthengisela amazwe angaphandle, ibhamu lempahla yase-Australia, kanye namazinga aphakeme esikweletu samazwe angaphandle esikweletwa umkhakha ozimele.
Imikhakha yezolimo neyezimayini (i-10% ye-GDP ihlanganisiwe) ibalwa cishe ngama-57% wokuthunyelwa kwesizwe. Umnotho wase-Australia uncike emikhiqizweni kawoyela ongahluziwe kanye nemikhiqizo kaphethiloli, ukuthembela kwezomnotho kuphethiloli kungenisa cishe u-80% - imikhiqizo kaphethiloli kawoyela ongahluziwe.
Ngakho-ke kungani kukhulunywa kangako nge-Australia boom dark kanye nembubhiso kwabezindaba muva nje?
Kubonakala kubahlaziyi abaningi ukuthi i-Australia kungenzeka yachitha ifa legolide futhi yaziqhubekisela ekubeni umnotho wobukhulu obubodwa. Yize kuyinganekwane yezomnotho ukuthi u-80% webhizinisi lakho uvela kuma-20% wamakhasimende akho, i-Australia ikuthathe ngokweqile lokho, kubonakala sengathi inekhasimende elilodwa vo nohla lomkhiqizo oluncane kakhulu ukuxhasa idrayivu yabo yokuthekelisa. Uma i-China inciphisa, noma ingakwazi ukukhokha ama-margins akhuphukile ezintweni zayo zokusetshenziswa, ngenkathi ukungeniswa kwe-Australia kuqhubeka kubiza imali ethe xaxa, leli lizwe elikhulu lingazithola lisenkingeni yezomnotho engajwayelekile. Izintengo zendlu, leyo ndlela ehlala njalo 'i-Aussie punt', ekugcineni sezifikile kuma-buffers futhi manje lo mdlalo we-spoof usufinyelele ku-zenith i-Aussie emaphakathi izizwa ingenakho ukuzethemba. Ngenkomba eyinhloko (i-ASX) eyehla nge-circa eyi-11.5% unyaka nonyaka ukuthi ukungazethembi kukhuliswa yimpesheni empofu kanye nembuyiselo yotshalo-mali. Kukhona futhi induduzo encane engatholwa kunani eliphezulu lenzalo ka-4.75% kokongiwa okunikezwe ukungqubuzana kwezindleko zempahla.
Kunenqwaba ye-hype egcizelela inkolelo yokuthi izimayini imboni enkulu yase-Australia. Ocwaningweni lwakamuva olwenziwe yi-Australia Institute, kwavezwa ukuthi abantu base-Australia bakweqisa ngokweqile ubukhulu nokubaluleka kwemboni yezimayini. Lapho bebuzwa ukuthi mkhulu kangakanani lo mkhakha, abantu babuzwa ukuthi imboni yezimayini iqasha amaphesenti ayi-16 abasebenzi base-Australia, kanti isibalo sangempela singamaphesenti angu-1.9. Umbiko uveza ukuthi yize ukwanda kwezimayini kudale amathuba emisebenzi amasha, izinzuzo ziyisibusiso esixubene emnothweni.
”Umnotho okhulayo waseNtshonalanga Australia usizile ekugcineni ukungasebenzi kwabantu kuphansi, kodwa lokhu kwanda kusho ukuthi iReserve Bank inyuse amanani emali yenzalo ukuze 'ivulele indawo' ukwanda ngokunciphisa ukukhula kweminye imikhakha. Izindleko zalo mgomo zithwalwe kakhulu yilabo abanemali enkulu ebanjwayo, imindeni ejwayelekile. ”
”Uma labo abahola imihlomulo bebehlomula ngesibalo sezimayini bekufanele kube nokugxuma kweholo langempela uma kuqhathaniswa nalokho abasebenzi abebezozuza ngenye indlela. Ngeshwa abukho ubufakazi bokuthi lokhu kwenzekile. ”
Umqondisi omkhulu walesi sikhungo uRichard Denniss, ubika ukuthi umbono womphakathi ngobukhulu nokubaluleka kwemboni yezimayini emnothweni wase-Australia wehlukile emaqinisweni.
”Ucwaningo luthole abantu base-Australia bakholelwa ukuthi izimayini zibanga ngaphezu kwengxenye eyodwa kwezintathu zomsebenzi wezomnotho kodwa izibalo ze-Australian Bureau of Statistics zikhombisa ukuthi imboni yezimayini inamaphesenti acishe abe ngu-9.2% we-GDP, cishe umnikelo ofanayo nowokukhiqiza futhi mncane kakhulu kunezezimali umkhakha. Imboni yezimayini iyathanda ukuziveza njengomqashi omkhulu, umkhokhi wentela omkhulu nomenzi omkhulu wemali wabaninimasheya base-Australia, kepha iqiniso nje alifani nenkulumo. Izikhangiso zemboni yezimayini ziyishaya indiva indlela isikhuthazo sezimayini esinyusa ngayo izinga lokushintshisana, sikhuphula inzalo yemali mboleko kanye nokunciphisa ukuqashwa kweminye imikhakha yezomnotho. ” UDkt Denniss uthe lo mbiko uveze ukuthi ukudlondlobala kwezimayini empeleni kuqhuba ukuqhuma okuyingozi ekushodweni kwe-akhawunti njengamanje.
Ngokufana ne-UK, ethola i-bonanza yegesi no-oyela, uvalo ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi izwe selifinyelele 'ezingeni' ekukhuleni kwempahla, lapho amanani entengo kawoyela ongahluziwe ahlala ngenkani ukukhula kwe-Australia kungahle kube yindlala. Ukushoda kwaminyaka yonke kwezinsizakalo kumarekhodi ayi- $ 7.19 billion.
Uphethiloli, okuwukuthengwa komndeni okukodwa okukhulu kunazo zonke e-Australia isonto ngalinye, usukhuphuke waba intengo ephezulu ezinyangeni ezine. Ngenkathi abantu base-Australia bezihalalisela ngokuthola amarisidi aphakeme amalahle, i-iron ore negolide, abakwazi ukukhohlwa iqiniso lokuthi idola eliphakeme lase-Australia nalo linomthelela ekushodweni kwezinsizakalo ezirekhodiwe. Imali iyangena, kodwa futhi iyaphuma..ukwesaba ukuthi ukwehla nokwenyuka kwamanzi akuhambisani nesikhathi eside sase-Australia.
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Australia, kungani abathengisi 'bokuqhuma nobumnyama' bezulazula futhi belola imimese yabo?
Septhemba 13 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-8080 • 1 Comment e-Australia, kungani abathengisi 'bokuqhuma nobumnyama' bezulazula futhi belola imimese yabo?
Kuwo wonke ama-maelstrom wezezimali womhlaba wonke abelokhu ekhona kusukela ngo-2007-2008 i-Australia ibilokhu iqinisa lo mkhuba. Ngisho nochungechunge oludabukisayo lwezikhukhula olwehlela ngoJan kulo nyaka (2011) lubonakale lushayisa izwe elikhulu okwesikhashana kusuka ekuthembekeni kwe-gyroscopic njengombuso omkhulu womhlaba. I-GDP ngayinye ye-Australia iphakeme kunaleyo yase-UK, Germany, neFrance ngokuya ngokulingana kwamandla. Izwe labekwa endaweni yesibili ku-United Nations 2009 Human Development Index futhi lihlala likleliswe phezulu enkombeni ye-The Economist esezingeni lomhlaba jikelele.
I-Australia ingenye yezomnotho othuthuka ngokushesha emhlabeni. I-IMF ibikezela ukuthi i-Australia izodlula yonke eminye iminotho esezingeni eliphakeme ngo-2011 ngenxa yokwanda okuqhubekayo kwesidingo samaShayina sezimpahla zase-Australia. Ngo-2010, i-Australia yathumela izimpahla eziyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama- $ 48.6 eChina, okuyizikhathi eziyisishiyagalolunye ngaphezu kweminyaka eyishumi eyedlule. Imboni yezimayini inenzuzo enkulu, ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi ngaphandle kuthengise ngaphezu kwengxenye yokuthunyelwa kwe-Australia eChina. Izimayini nokulima kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhube ukukhula komnotho wase-Australia kungekudala. I-Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences ibikezela ukuthi umkhiqizo wezimayini uzokhuphuka ngamaphesenti ayi-10.2 ngo-2010-2011 kuthi umkhiqizo wepulazi ungakhuphuka ngamaphesenti angama-8.9.
Umnotho wase-Australia kulindeleke ukuthi ukhule eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo. U-2011 kuya ku-2015 angabona iGDP yase-Australia ikhula ngo-4.81 iye kuma-5.09 amaphesenti minyaka yonke. Ekupheleni konyaka we-2015, i-GDP yase-Australia kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngama-US $ 1.122 trillion. I-GDP yase-Australia ngomuntu ngamunye kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule kahle. Ngo-2010, i-GDP yase-Australia ngomuntu ngamunye yayiyindawo yeshumi ephezulu emhlabeni - ikhula isuka ku-US $ 38,633.17 ngo-2009 yaya ku-US $ 39,692.06. Ngo-2011, i-GDP yase-Australia ngomuntu ngamunye ingakhuphuka ngamaphesenti angu-3.52 iye kuma-US $ 41,089.17. Iminyaka emine elandelayo ingabona ukukhula okungaguquguquki kwi-GDP yase-Australia ngomuntu ngamunye, okuholele ekutheni kube ne-GDP ngomuntu ngamunye we-US $ 47,445.58 ngasekupheleni kuka-2015.
Izibalo zakamuva ezikhishwe yi-Australian Bureau of Statistics zikhombisa ukuthi ibhalansi yezwe lezimpahla nezinsizakalo lifinyelele enqwabeni elungiswe ngesikhathi sonyaka engama- $ 1.826 billion ngenyanga. Umnotho wase-Australia ukhule kakhulu esigabeni sesibili ngokukhula okuphezulu kunokulindelekile okungamaphesenti ayi-1.2 okuqhutshwa ngotshalo-mali lwebhizinisi, ukusetshenziswa kwemali yasendlini kanye nokwakhiwa kwezimpahla. U-Annette Beacher, oyinhloko yocwaningo lwe-Asia-Pacific kwa-TD Securities ulindele ukuthi i-GDP inyuke iye kumaphesenti ama-2 ngonyaka ka-2011 no-4.5% ngonyaka olandelayo.
Ngokwesibalo samazinga okungaqashwa ahlinzekwa yi-IMF, ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi kuzokwehla kancane kancane kube ngu-5.025% ngasekupheleni kuka-2012. Ngemuva kwalokho, balindele ukuthi izinga lokungasebenzi (kusuka ngo-2013 kuya ku-2015) lihlale limi ku-4.8%.
Njengeminye iminotho eminingi esezingeni eliphakeme Umnotho wase-Australia uphethwe umkhakha wezinsizakalo zawo, omele ama-68% we-GDP yase-Australia, ukusetshenziswa kwabathengi kuyingxenye enkulu. Ukukhula emkhakheni wezinsizakalo kukhule kakhulu, izinsiza zezakhiwo nezamabhizinisi zikhule zisuka ku-10% zaya ku-14.5% we-GDP ngesikhathi esifanayo, okwenza kwaba yingxenye eyodwa enkulu ye-GDP yomkhakha. Lokhu kukhula kube ngenxa yomkhakha wezokukhiqiza, owathi ngo-2006-07 wabalelwa ku-12% we-GDP. Eminyakeni eyishumi ngaphambili, kwakuwumkhakha omkhulu kunayo yonke emnothweni, obala ngaphezulu nje kwe-15% le-GDP. Izindawo zamanje ezikhathaza abanye abezomnotho zifaka phakathi ukusilela kwe-akhawunti kwamanje e-Australia, ukungabi bikho kwemboni yezokukhiqiza ephumelele ukuthengisela amazwe angaphandle, ibhamu lempahla yase-Australia, kanye namazinga aphakeme esikweletu samazwe angaphandle esikweletwa umkhakha ozimele.
Imikhakha yezolimo neyezimayini (i-10% ye-GDP ihlanganisiwe) ibalwa cishe ngama-57% wokuthunyelwa kwesizwe. Umnotho wase-Australia uncike emikhiqizweni kawoyela ongahluziwe kanye nemikhiqizo kaphethiloli, ukuthembela kwezomnotho kuphethiloli kungenisa cishe u-80% - imikhiqizo kaphethiloli kawoyela ongahluziwe.
Ngakho-ke kungani kukhulunywa kangako nge-Australia boom dark kanye nembubhiso kwabezindaba muva nje?
Kubonakala kubahlaziyi abaningi ukuthi i-Australia kungenzeka yachitha ifa legolide futhi yaziqhubekisela ekubeni umnotho wobukhulu obubodwa. Yize kuyinganekwane yezomnotho ukuthi u-80% webhizinisi lakho uvela kuma-20% wamakhasimende akho, i-Australia ikuthathe ngokweqile lokho, kubonakala sengathi inekhasimende elilodwa vo nohla lomkhiqizo oluncane kakhulu ukuxhasa idrayivu yabo yokuthekelisa. Uma i-China inciphisa, noma ingakwazi ukukhokha ama-margins akhuphukile ezintweni zayo zokusetshenziswa, ngenkathi ukungeniswa kwe-Australia kuqhubeka kubiza imali ethe xaxa, leli lizwe elikhulu lingazithola lisenkingeni yezomnotho engajwayelekile. Izintengo zendlu, leyo ndlela ehlala njalo 'i-Aussie punt', ekugcineni sezifikile kuma-buffers futhi manje lo mdlalo we-spoof usufinyelele ku-zenith i-Aussie emaphakathi izizwa ingenakho ukuzethemba. Ngenkomba eyinhloko (i-ASX) eyehla nge-circa eyi-11.5% unyaka nonyaka ukuthi ukungazethembi kukhuliswa yimpesheni empofu kanye nembuyiselo yotshalo-mali. Kukhona futhi induduzo encane engatholwa kunani eliphezulu lenzalo ka-4.75% kokongiwa okunikezwe ukungqubuzana kwezindleko zempahla.
Kunenqwaba ye-hype egcizelela inkolelo yokuthi izimayini imboni enkulu yase-Australia. Ocwaningweni lwakamuva olwenziwe yi-Australia Institute, kwavezwa ukuthi abantu base-Australia bakweqisa ngokweqile ubukhulu nokubaluleka kwemboni yezimayini. Lapho bebuzwa ukuthi mkhulu kangakanani lo mkhakha, abantu babuzwa ukuthi imboni yezimayini iqasha amaphesenti ayi-16 abasebenzi base-Australia, kanti isibalo sangempela singamaphesenti angu-1.9. Umbiko uveza ukuthi yize ukwanda kwezimayini kudale amathuba emisebenzi amasha, izinzuzo ziyisibusiso esixubene emnothweni.
”Umnotho okhulayo waseNtshonalanga Australia usizile ekugcineni ukungasebenzi kwabantu kuphansi, kodwa lokhu kwanda kusho ukuthi iReserve Bank inyuse amanani emali yenzalo ukuze 'ivulele indawo' ukwanda ngokunciphisa ukukhula kweminye imikhakha. Izindleko zalo mgomo zithwalwe kakhulu yilabo abanemali enkulu ebanjwayo, imindeni ejwayelekile. ”
”Uma labo abahola imihlomulo bebehlomula ngesibalo sezimayini bekufanele kube nokugxuma kweholo langempela uma kuqhathaniswa nalokho abasebenzi abebezozuza ngenye indlela. Ngeshwa abukho ubufakazi bokuthi lokhu kwenzekile. ”
Umqondisi omkhulu walesi sikhungo uRichard Denniss, ubika ukuthi umbono womphakathi ngobukhulu nokubaluleka kwemboni yezimayini emnothweni wase-Australia wehlukile emaqinisweni.
”Ucwaningo luthole abantu base-Australia bakholelwa ukuthi izimayini zibanga ngaphezu kwengxenye eyodwa kwezintathu zomsebenzi wezomnotho kodwa izibalo ze-Australian Bureau of Statistics zikhombisa ukuthi imboni yezimayini inamaphesenti acishe abe ngu-9.2% we-GDP, cishe umnikelo ofanayo nowokukhiqiza futhi mncane kakhulu kunezezimali umkhakha. Imboni yezimayini iyathanda ukuziveza njengomqashi omkhulu, umkhokhi wentela omkhulu nomenzi omkhulu wemali wabaninimasheya base-Australia, kepha iqiniso nje alifani nenkulumo. Izikhangiso zemboni yezimayini ziyishaya indiva indlela isikhuthazo sezimayini esinyusa ngayo izinga lokushintshisana, sikhuphula inzalo yemali mboleko kanye nokunciphisa ukuqashwa kweminye imikhakha yezomnotho. ” UDkt Denniss uthe lo mbiko uveze ukuthi ukudlondlobala kwezimayini empeleni kuqhuba ukuqhuma okuyingozi ekushodweni kwe-akhawunti njengamanje.
Ngokufana ne-UK, ethola i-bonanza yegesi no-oyela, uvalo ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi izwe selifinyelele 'ezingeni' ekukhuleni kwempahla, lapho amanani entengo kawoyela ongahluziwe ahlala ngenkani ukukhula kwe-Australia kungahle kube yindlala. Ukushoda kwaminyaka yonke kwezinsizakalo kumarekhodi ayi- $ 7.19 billion.
Uphethiloli, okuwukuthengwa komndeni okukodwa okukhulu kunazo zonke e-Australia isonto ngalinye, usukhuphuke waba intengo ephezulu ezinyangeni ezine. Ngenkathi abantu base-Australia bezihalalisela ngokuthola amarisidi aphakeme amalahle, i-iron ore negolide, abakwazi ukukhohlwa iqiniso lokuthi idola eliphakeme lase-Australia nalo linomthelela ekushodweni kwezinsizakalo ezirekhodiwe. Imali iyangena, kodwa futhi iyaphuma..ukwesaba ukuthi ukwehla nokwenyuka kwamanzi akuhambisani nesikhathi eside sase-Australia.
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