Njengoba kukhishwa isibalo sakamuva se-CPI (inflation), ingabe iBhange laseNgilandi lizobonakala lilungile ekugcineni inani lenzalo elisezingeni elingu-0.5%?

UFebhu 12 • Ingqondo I-Gap • Ukubukwa okungu-4286 • Amazwana Off njengoba Njengoba isibalo sakamuva se-CPI (i-inflation) sikhishwa, ingabe iBhange laseNgilandi lizobonakala lilungile ekugcineni inani lenzalo elisezingeni elingu-0.5%?

NgoFebhuwari 13th ngo-9.30AM i-UK izibalo ejensi i-ONS, izokhipha izibalo zakamuva zokwehla kwamandla emali emnothweni wase-UK. Izibalo zokwehla kwamandla emali zifaka phakathi: i-CPI, i-RPI, ukwehla kwamandla emali okuyisisekelo, okokufaka, okokukhipha kanye nokwenyuka kwamanani entengo ezindlini. Yizibalo eziyinhloko ze-CPI, zombili inyanga nonyaka nonyaka, ezizobhekwa ngokucophelela ngabahlaziyi nabatshalizimali futhi imininingwane ingaveza ukusabela kwezimakethe e-UK pound lapho ikhishwa, uma isibikezelo sihlangatsheziwe.

Inani lenyanga lenyanga lenyanga kulindeleke ukuthi lehle liye ku -0.6% ngoJanuwari, lisuka ezingeni lika-0.4% ngoDisemba. Isibalo sonyaka ngonyaka kulindeleke ukuthi sehle sifike ku-2.9% ngoJanuwari, sisuke ku-3% ngoDisemba. Ukuwela endaweni engeyinhle ngenyanga kaJanuwari, emele ukugoba okuphelele okungu-1% kusuka kokuphrintiwe okungu-0.4% ngoDisemba, kungathatha abatshalizimali abaningi (abahluleka ukuhlala phezu kokukhishwa okuyisisekelo okuzayo) lapho kunikezwa iBhange laseNgilandi ukukhathazeka maqondana nokwehla kwamandla emali, abasakaza ngesikhathi benesithangami nabezindaba muva nje ngeviki eledlule.

I-BoE icaphune ukwesaba okwehla kwamandla emali kwesikhashana, njengesizathu sokulandisa kwabo nge-hawkish okulethwe ngesonto eledlule, ngesikhathi bengathathi sigqibo mayelana nezinga lenzalo yase-UK. UMark Carney wethule umhlahlandlela phambili ophakamisa ukuthi abatshalizimali kufanele balungiselele inqubomgomo yesilinganiso senzalo esinolaka eminyakeni ezayo; ukukhuphuka kuzoba ngaphezulu futhi kusheshe. Uyekile ukuletha itafula lesikhathi, kodwa-ke, ukuvumelana okujwayelekile kubonakale njengokukhuphuka kathathu kwe-0.25% ngaphambi kokuphela kwe-2019, kuthathe isilinganiso esiphansi saba yi-1.25%. Kodwa-ke, isexwayiso kanye nokuchasisa okwedlulele kwanoma yikuphi ukukhuphuka kwesikhathi esizayo, kungaba nomthelela wezingxoxo zeBrexit ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezizayo, umthelela weBrexit kusuka ngoMashi 2019 kuye phambili kanye nokusebenza okujwayelekile komnotho wase-UK phakathi nalesi sikhathi.

Iphawundi lase-UK lenyuka kakhulu ngemuva kwesinqumo sezinga lesilinganiso se-BoE kanye nengqungquthela yabezindaba eyalandela; ikhebula (GBP / USD) lenyuka futhi i-EUR / GBP yawa. Kodwa-ke, ukuzuza kube okwesikhashana njengoba uBrexit esaba futhi, kwavela okuhle kakhulu kubuyela emazingeni wokumenyezelwa kwe-BoE, kuqhathaniswa nemali yayo emibili eyinhloko. Uma isibikezelo se-MoM sokuwela ku -0.6% siba yiqiniso, noma ukufundwa okungekuhle eduze kwalesi sibalo kubhalwe phansi, khona-ke izibikezelo ze-BoE nokwesaba maqondana nokwehla kwamandla emali kungahle kube ngaphambi kwesikhathi, ngaleyo ndlela iphawundi lingangena ngaphansi kwengcindezi yokuthengisa, abatshalizimali babheka ukuthi ukukhathazeka kwamandla emali kuye kwenziwa ihaba.

IZIMETRIKI ZOMNOTHO EZISEMQOKA UKUZE UKHONA UKUBALULEKA EKUKHULULWENI.

• I-GDP YoY 1.5%.
• I-GDP QoQ 0.5%.
• Isilinganiso senzalo 0.5%.
• Izinga lentengo ye-3.0%.
• Izinga lokungasebenzi 4.3%.
• Isikweletu sikahulumeni v GDP 89.3%.
• Imisebenzi PMI 53.

Amazwana zivaliwe.

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