Njengoba i-MPC yeBhange LaseNgilandi ihlangana ukudingida nokumemezela inani lenzalo yase-UK, abahlaziyi baqala ukubuza ukuthi “lokhu kukhuphuka okungenakugwemeka kuzokwenzeka nini?”

UFebhu 6 • Ingqondo I-Gap • Ukubukwa okungu-4179 • Amazwana Off njengoba i-MPC yeBhange LaseNgilandi ihlangana ukudingida nokumemezela inani lenzalo yase-UK, abahlaziyi baqala ukubuza ukuthi “lokhu kukhuphuka okungenakugwemeka kuzokwenzeka nini?”

NgoLwesine mhla ziyisi-8 kuNhlolanja, ngo-12:00pm GMT (isikhathi sase-UK) ibhange elikhulu lase-UK iBhange lase-England, lizodalula isinqumo salo mayelana nezilinganiso zenzalo. Njengamanje izinga lesisekelo liku-0.5%, futhi kukhona okulindelekile ngokukhuphuka. I-BoE iphinde ixoxe bese iveza isinqumo sayo mayelana nohlelo lwamanje lokuthengwa kwempahla lwase-UK (QE), okwamanje oluyi-£435b, abahlaziyi ababuzwa ngabakwaReuters kanye ne-Bloomberg, balindele ukuthi leli zinga lizohlala lingashintshile.

Uma isinqumo sezinga lenzalo sesidaluliwe, ukunakwa kuzophendukela ngokushesha ekulandiseni okuhambisana nesinqumo seBhange. Abatshalizimali nabahlaziyi bazobheka imikhondo yokuqondisa eya phambili evela kumbusi we-BoE, mayelana nenqubomgomo yabo yezimali yesikhathi esizayo. Izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali e-UK njengamanje liyi-3%, okuyiphesenti elilodwa ngaphezu kwendawo okuhloswe ngayo/okumnandi i-BoE ehlose ngayo njengengxenye yenqubomgomo yayo yezimali. Kwezinye izinkathi i-BoE ingase inyuse amanani ukuze ipholise ukwehla kwamandla emali. Kodwa-ke, ukukhula kwe-GDP e-UK ku-1.5%, ngakho-ke ukunyusa amanani kungase konakalise ukukhula okunjalo okungenandaba. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukukhushulwa kwamazinga entengo manje kungase kube nomthelela emananini entengo yempahla, njengesibonelo, phakathi nokuhlolwa kwengcindezi kwakamuva okwenziwe yibhange elikhulu, liphethe ngokuthi ukukhuphuka kwezinga eliyisisekelo liye ku-3% linganciphisa inani lemakethe yezakhiwo yaseLondon kanye neNingizimu East England kuze kufike ku- 30%.

I-MPC/BoE kuyodingeka futhi igxile kunqubomgomo yezimali yakho kokubili i-Fed ne-ECB, amabhange amaphakathi amabili abambisene abakhulu be-UK abahwebayo- i-USA ne-Eurozone. I-FOMC/Fed iphindwe kabili amazinga ngo-2017 kuya ku-1.5%, ukuqagela kungokwenyuka okunye okuthathu ngo-2018, ukuthatha amanani ku-2.75%. I-ECB kungase kudingeke ikhuphule, ukuze igcine/iphathe inani le-euro, uma iqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika. Ngokwemvelo lezi zinqumo zingahlehliswa, uma i-selloff yamanje yemakethe yezabelo ifakazela ukuthi iyisilungiso esingu-10% noma ngaphezulu, kusukela esiqongweni sakamuva.

I-BoE iphinde ibanjwe phakathi kwedwala nendawo eqinile, ngenxa yesimo se-Brexit. UMark Carney, umbusi webhange elikhulu kanye nozakwabo ku-MPC (ikomidi lenqubomgomo yezimali), bazithola besesimeni esinzima kakhulu. Akudingekile kuphela ukuthi baphathe inqubomgomo yezimali kuyilapho bebhekana nezinkinga ezivamile umnotho ezizokwethulwa, futhi kufanele bakhumbule umthelela ogcwele kancane kancane futhi ekugcineni ogcwele i-Brexit ezoba nawo emnothweni wase-UK, uma iBrithani ihamba ngoMashi 2019. Yini? ebizwa ngokuthi "inkathi yesikhashana" yokuhweba, kusukela ngoMashi 2019, manje sekusele unyaka kuphela, umthwalo wemfanelo wokuphatha ukuphuma manje ingxenye yesibopho se-BOE, hhayi nje uhulumeni we-Tory.

Abahwebi akufanele bazilungiselele kuphela isinqumo sezinga lenzalo, kodwa futhi nesithangami sabezindaba kanye nanoma yikuphi okunye ukulandisa okwethulwa yi-BoE. Uma isinqumo sibanjelwe ku-0.5%, akusho ukuthi i-sterling izohlala inganyakazi uma iqhathaniswa nontanga bayo. U-Sterling ube ngaphansi kwengcindezi ekuqaleni kwesonto ngenxa yokudayiswa kwemakethe yezabelomali emhlabeni wonke, ngakho-ke imali ingase ibe bucayi kunoma isiphi isitatimende esinekhodi esenziwa yibhange, noma uMark Carney.

IZIBALO EZIFANELEKILE ZASE-UK EZIPHATHELENE NOKHISHWA KOMTHELELA OMKHULU

• Isilinganiso senzalo 0.5%.
• I-GDP YoY 1.5%.
• Ukwehla kwamandla emali (CPI) 3%.
• Izinga lokungasebenzi 4.3%.
• Ukukhula komholo u-2.5%.
• Isikweletu sikahulumeni v GDP 89.3%.
• I-PMI eyinhlanganisela 54.9.

Amazwana zivaliwe.

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