Ngomhla wesihlanu • Amanqaku orhwebo nge Forex, Amagqabantshintshi eMarike • 3411 izimvo • Comments Off Kukuthini ukungazinzi, ungasitshintsha njani isicwangciso sakho sokurhweba kuso kwaye unokuchaphazela njani iziphumo zakho zokurhweba?
Akumangalisi ukuba uninzi lwabathengisi be-FX abathengisayo, besilela ukwamkela impembelelo yokungazinzi okunokubakho kwiziphumo zabo zorhwebo. Isifundo, njengesenzeko kunye nefuthe ngqo elinokuba nalo kumgca wakho osezantsi, akunakuze kuxoxwe ngazo ngokupheleleyo kumanqaku, okanye kwiiforamu zokurhweba. Ngamaxesha athile, isalathiso esikhawulezayo, esakhe senziwa. Loluphi ulongamo oluqwalaselweyo, olusekwe kwinto yokuba (njengesifundo), yenye yezona zinto zingaqondakaliyo kwaye zingakhathalelwanga, ezibandakanya ukuthengisa zonke iimarike, hayi iFX kuphela.
Inkcazo yokungazinzi inokuba "ngumlinganiso weenkcukacha manani wokwabiwa kwembuyekezo nakoluphi na ukhuseleko, okanye isalathiso sentengiso". Ngokubanzi; ukuphakama kokungazinzi nangaliphi na ixesha, umngcipheko wokhuseleko uthathwa ngokuba. Ukuguquguquka kunokulinganiswa ngokusebenzisa iimodeli zokutenxa ezisemgangathweni, okanye umahluko phakathi kwembuyekezo evela kukhuseleko olufanayo, okanye kwisalathiso sentengiso. Ukuguquguquka okuphezulu kuhlala kunxulunyaniswa notshintsho olukhulu, olunokubakho nakweliphi icala. Umzekelo, ukuba isibini seFX sinyuka kwaye okanye siwela ngaphezulu kwepesenti enye ngexesha leseshoni yosuku, sinokuhlelwa njengemarike "eguqukayo".
Ukuguquguquka kwemarike ngokubanzi kwiimarike zezabelo zeUSA, kunokujongwa ngendlela yoko kubizwa ngokuba yi “Volatility Index”. I-VIX yenziwe yiChicago yeBhodi ekhethiweyo yokuTshintshiselana, isetyenziswa njengenyathelo lokulinganisa iintsuku ezingama-500 ezilindelekileyo zokungazinzi kwimarike yemasheya yase-US kwaye ivela kumaxabiso exesha langempela le-SPX XNUMX, fowuna kwaye ubeke ukhetho. I-VIX sisiseko sokubheja okuzayo apho abatyali mali kunye nabarhwebi benza khona, kwicala lezentengiso, okanye kukhuseleko lomntu ngamnye. Ukufunda okuphezulu kwi-VIX kuthetha ukuba kwintengiso eyingozi.
Akukho nasinye sezalathi saziwayo kwezobuchwephesha, ezifumaneka kumaqonga anjengeMetaTrader MT4, esele yenziwe ngokukodwa kumbandela wokungazinzi engqondweni. Iibhendi zeBollinger, isalathiso seChannel yesitishi kunye noMndilili woluhlu lweNyaniso, zizalathi zobuchwephesha ezinokubonisa utshintsho kubuchwephesha, kodwa akukho nanye yenzelwe ngokukodwa ukuvelisa imetric yokungazinzi. I-RVI (i-Relative Volatility Index) yenzelwe ukubonisa icala apho utshintsho lwamaxabiso lutshintsha khona. Nangona kunjalo, ayifumaneki ngokubanzi kwaye eyona nto iphambili kwi-RVI kukuba iqinisekisa nje ezinye izalathi ezalatha imiqondiso (RSI, MAСD, Stochastic kunye nezinye) ngaphandle kokuziphindaphinda. Kukho iiwijethi zokuthengisa ezinikezelwa ngabarhwebi, ezinokubonisa utshintsho kwimeko yokungazinzi, ezi azifumaneki njengezikhombisi, zime zodwa, izixhobo zemathematika.
Ukunqongophala kokungazinzi (njengesiqhelo) okuchaphazela iFX, kutshanje kubonisiwe ngokuwa kwezibini ezibalaseleyo, ezinxulumene ngqo nokuwa okubalulekileyo kwimisebenzi yorhwebo ngababini njenge-GBP / USD. Ukudodobala kwentshukumo yexabiso le-GBP kunye nentshukumo, yayihambelana ngqo neholide yebhanki yePasika kunye nekhefu lasePalamente lase-UK. Iimarike ezininzi zeFX zavalwa ngeholide yebhanki ngoMvulo nangoLwesihlanu, ngelixa amalungu ePalamente ase-UK athatha iholide yeeveki ezimbini. Ngexesha labo leholide, umxholo weBrexit wawususwe ikakhulu kwimixholo ephambili yemithombo yeendaba, njengoko yayizezona zinto zibalulekileyo ezichaphazela ixabiso lesitayile, xa kuthelekiswa noontanga.
Ngexesha lekhefu, isenzo sokubonisa amaxabiso, esoloko siboniswa kwiinyanga nje ezidlulileyo, njengoko i-UK ibijongene nemiphetho eyahlukeneyo yamawa ngokunxulumene neBrexit, yayingasabonakali kumaxesha ahlukeneyo. Kwinxalenye enkulu, uninzi lwezibini ezibalaseleyo zathengisa ecaleni ngeeveki apho ii-MP zase-UK zazingasabonakali, okanye ziviwe. Kulula kakhulu; Ukurhweba kwintelekelelo kwi-sterling kwehle kakhulu, kuba uBrexit njengesifundo, wawa kwi-radar. Uqikelelo olwahlukileyo lucebise ukuba ukungaziphathi kakuhle kwi-sterling kwakumalunga neepesenti ezingama-50 ezantsi kumanqanaba alo okuphumla ePalamente. Iibini ezifana ne-EUR / GBP kunye ne-GBP / USD zithengiswa ngokuqinileyo, ubukhulu becala ecaleni, kumanqanaba, kangangexesha leeveki ezimbini. Kodwa nje ukuba amalungu e-UK abuyele kwii-ofisi zabo eWestminster, uBrexit ubuyile kwi-ajenda yemithombo yeendaba ephambili.
Ukuqikelelwa kwe-sterling kwangoko kwenyuka kwaye amaxabiso abethelwa ngobundlongondlongo kuluhlu olubanzi, ejikeleza phakathi kwe-bullish kunye ne-bearish meko, ekugqibeleni yangena nge-S3, ngolwe-Lwesibini ku-Epreli 23, njengoko iindaba zaqhekeka malunga nokusilela kwenkqubela phambili kwiintetho phakathi kwamaqela ezopolitiko aphambili e-UK. Ngequbuliso, ngaphandle kokubuyela umva kuSuku loMhlaba olwalukho ngaphambi kwekhefu, ukungazinzi okukhoyo, umsebenzi kunye namathuba abuyile kwi-radar. Kubalulekile ukuba abathengisi beFX bangaboni kuphela ukuba yintoni ukungaziphathi kakuhle kwaye kutheni kunokwanda, kodwa kwakhona, xa kunokwenzeka ukuba kwenzeke. Inganyuka ngokuqatha ngenxa yomsitho weendaba, umcimbi wezopolitiko wasekhaya, okanye ngenxa yemeko eqhubekayo etshintsha kakhulu. Nokuba siyintoni na isizathu, yinto efanelwe kukuqwalaselwa ngakumbi kunye nembeko kubathengisi be-FX abathengisayo, kunokuba ihlawulwa ngokubanzi.
« I-Aussie dollar yengozi xa ithelekiswa noontanga bayo, njengoko ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuye kwehla kakhulu, i-IFO metric zaseJamani ziyaphoswa luqikelelo, longeze uloyiko lokuba iJamani inokungena kuqoqosho. Ukudodobala kweedola zase-Australasia, idola yaseMelika inyuka, ii-equity zase-US zityibilika kwiirekhodi eziphezulu. »
Kukuthini ukungazinzi, ungasitshintsha njani isicwangciso sakho sokurhweba kuso kwaye unokuchaphazela njani iziphumo zakho zokurhweba?
Ngomhla wesihlanu • Amanqaku orhwebo nge Forex, Amagqabantshintshi eMarike • 3411 izimvo • Comments Off Kukuthini ukungazinzi, ungasitshintsha njani isicwangciso sakho sokurhweba kuso kwaye unokuchaphazela njani iziphumo zakho zokurhweba?
Akumangalisi ukuba uninzi lwabathengisi be-FX abathengisayo, besilela ukwamkela impembelelo yokungazinzi okunokubakho kwiziphumo zabo zorhwebo. Isifundo, njengesenzeko kunye nefuthe ngqo elinokuba nalo kumgca wakho osezantsi, akunakuze kuxoxwe ngazo ngokupheleleyo kumanqaku, okanye kwiiforamu zokurhweba. Ngamaxesha athile, isalathiso esikhawulezayo, esakhe senziwa. Loluphi ulongamo oluqwalaselweyo, olusekwe kwinto yokuba (njengesifundo), yenye yezona zinto zingaqondakaliyo kwaye zingakhathalelwanga, ezibandakanya ukuthengisa zonke iimarike, hayi iFX kuphela.
Inkcazo yokungazinzi inokuba "ngumlinganiso weenkcukacha manani wokwabiwa kwembuyekezo nakoluphi na ukhuseleko, okanye isalathiso sentengiso". Ngokubanzi; ukuphakama kokungazinzi nangaliphi na ixesha, umngcipheko wokhuseleko uthathwa ngokuba. Ukuguquguquka kunokulinganiswa ngokusebenzisa iimodeli zokutenxa ezisemgangathweni, okanye umahluko phakathi kwembuyekezo evela kukhuseleko olufanayo, okanye kwisalathiso sentengiso. Ukuguquguquka okuphezulu kuhlala kunxulunyaniswa notshintsho olukhulu, olunokubakho nakweliphi icala. Umzekelo, ukuba isibini seFX sinyuka kwaye okanye siwela ngaphezulu kwepesenti enye ngexesha leseshoni yosuku, sinokuhlelwa njengemarike "eguqukayo".
Ukuguquguquka kwemarike ngokubanzi kwiimarike zezabelo zeUSA, kunokujongwa ngendlela yoko kubizwa ngokuba yi “Volatility Index”. I-VIX yenziwe yiChicago yeBhodi ekhethiweyo yokuTshintshiselana, isetyenziswa njengenyathelo lokulinganisa iintsuku ezingama-500 ezilindelekileyo zokungazinzi kwimarike yemasheya yase-US kwaye ivela kumaxabiso exesha langempela le-SPX XNUMX, fowuna kwaye ubeke ukhetho. I-VIX sisiseko sokubheja okuzayo apho abatyali mali kunye nabarhwebi benza khona, kwicala lezentengiso, okanye kukhuseleko lomntu ngamnye. Ukufunda okuphezulu kwi-VIX kuthetha ukuba kwintengiso eyingozi.
Akukho nasinye sezalathi saziwayo kwezobuchwephesha, ezifumaneka kumaqonga anjengeMetaTrader MT4, esele yenziwe ngokukodwa kumbandela wokungazinzi engqondweni. Iibhendi zeBollinger, isalathiso seChannel yesitishi kunye noMndilili woluhlu lweNyaniso, zizalathi zobuchwephesha ezinokubonisa utshintsho kubuchwephesha, kodwa akukho nanye yenzelwe ngokukodwa ukuvelisa imetric yokungazinzi. I-RVI (i-Relative Volatility Index) yenzelwe ukubonisa icala apho utshintsho lwamaxabiso lutshintsha khona. Nangona kunjalo, ayifumaneki ngokubanzi kwaye eyona nto iphambili kwi-RVI kukuba iqinisekisa nje ezinye izalathi ezalatha imiqondiso (RSI, MAСD, Stochastic kunye nezinye) ngaphandle kokuziphindaphinda. Kukho iiwijethi zokuthengisa ezinikezelwa ngabarhwebi, ezinokubonisa utshintsho kwimeko yokungazinzi, ezi azifumaneki njengezikhombisi, zime zodwa, izixhobo zemathematika.
Ukunqongophala kokungazinzi (njengesiqhelo) okuchaphazela iFX, kutshanje kubonisiwe ngokuwa kwezibini ezibalaseleyo, ezinxulumene ngqo nokuwa okubalulekileyo kwimisebenzi yorhwebo ngababini njenge-GBP / USD. Ukudodobala kwentshukumo yexabiso le-GBP kunye nentshukumo, yayihambelana ngqo neholide yebhanki yePasika kunye nekhefu lasePalamente lase-UK. Iimarike ezininzi zeFX zavalwa ngeholide yebhanki ngoMvulo nangoLwesihlanu, ngelixa amalungu ePalamente ase-UK athatha iholide yeeveki ezimbini. Ngexesha labo leholide, umxholo weBrexit wawususwe ikakhulu kwimixholo ephambili yemithombo yeendaba, njengoko yayizezona zinto zibalulekileyo ezichaphazela ixabiso lesitayile, xa kuthelekiswa noontanga.
Ngexesha lekhefu, isenzo sokubonisa amaxabiso, esoloko siboniswa kwiinyanga nje ezidlulileyo, njengoko i-UK ibijongene nemiphetho eyahlukeneyo yamawa ngokunxulumene neBrexit, yayingasabonakali kumaxesha ahlukeneyo. Kwinxalenye enkulu, uninzi lwezibini ezibalaseleyo zathengisa ecaleni ngeeveki apho ii-MP zase-UK zazingasabonakali, okanye ziviwe. Kulula kakhulu; Ukurhweba kwintelekelelo kwi-sterling kwehle kakhulu, kuba uBrexit njengesifundo, wawa kwi-radar. Uqikelelo olwahlukileyo lucebise ukuba ukungaziphathi kakuhle kwi-sterling kwakumalunga neepesenti ezingama-50 ezantsi kumanqanaba alo okuphumla ePalamente. Iibini ezifana ne-EUR / GBP kunye ne-GBP / USD zithengiswa ngokuqinileyo, ubukhulu becala ecaleni, kumanqanaba, kangangexesha leeveki ezimbini. Kodwa nje ukuba amalungu e-UK abuyele kwii-ofisi zabo eWestminster, uBrexit ubuyile kwi-ajenda yemithombo yeendaba ephambili.
Ukuqikelelwa kwe-sterling kwangoko kwenyuka kwaye amaxabiso abethelwa ngobundlongondlongo kuluhlu olubanzi, ejikeleza phakathi kwe-bullish kunye ne-bearish meko, ekugqibeleni yangena nge-S3, ngolwe-Lwesibini ku-Epreli 23, njengoko iindaba zaqhekeka malunga nokusilela kwenkqubela phambili kwiintetho phakathi kwamaqela ezopolitiko aphambili e-UK. Ngequbuliso, ngaphandle kokubuyela umva kuSuku loMhlaba olwalukho ngaphambi kwekhefu, ukungazinzi okukhoyo, umsebenzi kunye namathuba abuyile kwi-radar. Kubalulekile ukuba abathengisi beFX bangaboni kuphela ukuba yintoni ukungaziphathi kakuhle kwaye kutheni kunokwanda, kodwa kwakhona, xa kunokwenzeka ukuba kwenzeke. Inganyuka ngokuqatha ngenxa yomsitho weendaba, umcimbi wezopolitiko wasekhaya, okanye ngenxa yemeko eqhubekayo etshintsha kakhulu. Nokuba siyintoni na isizathu, yinto efanelwe kukuqwalaselwa ngakumbi kunye nembeko kubathengisi be-FX abathengisayo, kunokuba ihlawulwa ngokubanzi.
« I-Aussie dollar yengozi xa ithelekiswa noontanga bayo, njengoko ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuye kwehla kakhulu, i-IFO metric zaseJamani ziyaphoswa luqikelelo, longeze uloyiko lokuba iJamani inokungena kuqoqosho. Ukudodobala kweedola zase-Australasia, idola yaseMelika inyuka, ii-equity zase-US zityibilika kwiirekhodi eziphezulu. »