Ukurhweba ngemilinganiselo ehambayo, ngaba ziziprofeto ezizalisekisayo okanye ngaba zizalathi ezinamandla?
Abathengisi abaninzi kuluntu lwethu baya kukhumbula ngokucacileyo umzuzu wokuba nomdla kuhlalutyo lobugcisa. Abaninzi baya kungqina ukuba yayiyimiyinge ehambayo eyathi yanyusa umdla wabo kuqala. Mhlawumbi sibeke umndilili ohambahambayo weentsuku ezingama-21 kwitshati yemihla ngemihla kwaye sabona ukuba ixabiso lenze njani xa lidibana nalo mqobo. Ngaba yawela kuyo, yakhatywa ixabiso, yahamba yaya emacaleni kuluhlu?
Emva koko siye sijonge kwikhulu, okanye i-avareji yeentsuku ezingamakhulu amabini (i-SMA) emva kokuba sihlala sibona bekhankanywa kumanqaku apapashwe yiBloomberg okanye iReuters. Besihlala sibona iikowuti ingamanqaku ekubhekiselwa kuwo abahlalutyi becebisa ukuba ixabiso lalikufuphi, okanye lalisandula ukudlula, le migca ibonakalayo izotywe kwiitshathi zethu. Yayithetha ukuthini?
Ukuqhubela phambili kwendalo okulandelayo kukubeka uninzi lwale miyinge ishukumayo kwitshati yevanila enenye into encinane kuyo ngaphandle kwexabiso elimelwe yibha okanye umgca. Emva koko siye sijonge imiyinge emininzi ehambayo inqumla kwitshathi yethu yemihla ngemihla. Siqaphela iintsuku ezisezantsi ze-21 ze-SMA eziwela i-50 SMA rhoqo. Emva koko isibane sivulwa ngokwenyani ezingqondweni zethu kwaye siyazibuza ukuba sinokongeza umndilili ohambahambayo weentsuku ezili-10 kumnyama wethu wezalathi ezinemibala. Emva koko siqaphela ukuba njengoko ixabiso lihamba linyuka okanye lihla, ukuze lihambelane ne-bullish okanye i-bearish sentiment, i-20 iwela amashumi amahlanu kwinto ebonakala ngathi yinto ehambelanayo.
Ukuma kwethu okulandelayo 'kukwenza nzima' iintsuku ezili-10 ze-SMA ukuthintela. Masithi siyenza i-EMA ngokuchasene nomndilili ohambahambayo olula. Ngoku siqaphela ukuba iyantlukwano, kude nomndilili oshukumayo ophezulu, ubukhali ngakumbi xa sisebenzisa inguqulelo ye-exponential. Ngokuqhelekileyo ngeli nqanaba kumthengisi wethu we-metamorphosis apho siqala ukuqonda ukuba i-avareji ehambayo eneneni ingaba zizixhobo ezinamandla ukuba zisetyenziswe ngokuchanekileyo. Kwaye kukwakho nolunye usetyenziso olungundoqo olunokuthi lulawule ukusetyenziswa kwabo ngaphezulu nangaphezulu bejonge inyathelo lexabiso kunye nokwahluka kwalo - apho iiodolo zinokudityaniswa.
Umbono esinawo kwintloko yethu yabarhwebi bamaziko ngowokuba baqhube ishishini labo lokurhweba, xa bethenga kwaye bethengisa iiperi zemali, ngendlela efanayo nathi, kodwa baneebhanki zabahloli abanokurhweba ngazo kunye neeakhawunti ezinkulu abanokurhweba ngazo. Lo mbono uneempazamo kakhulu njengoko iindlela zokurhweba eziqeshwe ngabathengisi bamaziko zihluke kakhulu kwizinto ezenziwa ngabathengisi.
Akunakwenzeka kakhulu ukuba abashukumisi beemarike kunye nabenzi baya kusebenzisa indibaniselwano ye-MACD, i-PSR, i-DMI, i-ADX kunye ne-RSI ukwenza izigqibo zabo, ngakumbi ii-odolo zabo; thenga, umise kwaye uthathe imiyalelo yokunciphisa inzuzo, uya kutsalela ekujongeni amanani ajikelezayo kunye nemiyinge ehamba phambili efana ne-100 okanye i-200 SMAs. Abathengisi bezinga leziko baya kuba nemiyalelo emikhulu ejikeleze izibambo eziphambili, njengoko sibonile kutshanje nge-AUD / USD kwinqanaba elibalulekileyo le-90.000. Baza kuba neeodolo ezininzi ezidityanisiweyo malunga ne-100 kunye ne-200 ye-SMA.
Imiyinge ehambayo; imvelaphi yabo, ukusetyenziswa nokubala
Imiyinge ehambayo igudisa idatha yexabiso ukwenza isalathisi esilandelayo. Abayi kuxela kwangaphambili ulwalathiso lwexabiso, kodwa chaza ulwalathiso lwangoku kunye ne-lag. Ukuhambisa i-avareji lag ngenxa yokuba zisekelwe kumaxabiso adlulileyo. Ngaphandle koku kushiyeka, i-avareji ehambayo inceda inyathelo lexabiso eligudileyo kunye nokucoca ingxolo. Ziphinde zenze iibhloko zokwakha kwezinye izibonakaliso ezininzi zobugcisa kunye nokugqithisa, njengeBollinger Bands kunye ne-MACD. Iindidi ezimbini ezidumileyo zemiyinge ehambayo yi-Simple Moving Average (SMA) kunye ne-Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Le miyinge ehambayo ingasetyenziselwa ukuchonga isalathiso somzila okanye ichaze inkxaso enokubakho kunye namanqanaba okumelana.
I-avareji elula ehambayo yenziwa ngokubala ixabiso eliphakathi lokhuseleko kwinani elithile lamaxesha. Uninzi lwee-avareji ezihambayo zisekelwe kumaxabiso okuvala. I-avareji yeentsuku ezi-5 ezilula ezihambayo yimali yeentsuku ezintlanu zokuvala amaxabiso ahlukaniswe ezintlanu. Njengoko igama layo lisitsho, i-avareji ehambayo yi-avareji ehambayo. Idatha endala iwisiwe njengoko idatha entsha ifumaneka. Oku kubangela ukuba umndilili uhambe kunye nesikali sexesha. Apha ngezantsi kukho i-avareji yeentsuku ezi-5 ezihambayo eziguqukayo kwiintsuku ezintathu.
Ukuhambisa i-avareji yokuthengisa i-crossover concepts
I-crossover ehambayo-ehambayo iyenzeka xa kucwangciswa i-avareji ezimbini ezihambayo nganye ngokusekelwe kwiidigri ezahlukeneyo zokugudiswa, iitrayisi zale miyinge ehambayo iyawela. Ayixeli kwangaphambili intsingiselo yekamva kodwa ibonisa iintsingiselo. Esi salathisi sisebenzisa ezimbini (okanye ngaphezulu) i-avareji ehambayo, i-avareji ehamba kancinci kunye ne-avareji ehamba ngokukhawuleza. I-avareji ehamba ngokukhawuleza yi-avareji yokuhamba kwexesha elifutshane. Kwiimarike zokuphela-komhla, umzekelo, inokuba yi-5, 10 okanye i-25 yeentsuku ngelixa i-avareji ehamba kade iphakathi okanye i-avareji yokuhamba kwexesha elide (umz. 50, 100 okanye 200 iintsuku). I-avareji yokuhamba kwexesha elifutshane iyakhawuleza kuba iqwalasela amaxabiso kuphela kwixesha elifutshane kwaye ngoko ke isebenze ngakumbi kwiinguqu zemihla ngemihla zamaxabiso. Kwelinye icala, umndilili wexesha elide ohambayo ubonwa ucotha njengoko uhlanganisa amaxabiso kwixesha elide kwaye utyhafile ngakumbi. Nangona kunjalo, ithande ukugudisa ingxolo yamaxabiso ehlala ibonakaliswa kwimiyinge yexesha elifutshane ehambayo.
Umyinge ohambayo udla ngokugqunywa kwiitshathi zexabiso ukubonisa iintsingiselo zexabiso. I-crossover yenzeka xa umndilili ohamba ngokukhawuleza (okt, ixesha elifutshane lomndilili wokuhamba) uwela umndilili ohamba kade (oko kukuthi ixesha elide lokuhamba komndilili). Ngamanye amazwi, oku kuxa ixesha elifutshane lokuhamba komndilili welayini unqumla umgca ophakathi ohamba ixesha elide. Ekurhwebeni le ndawo yokuhlangana isetyenziselwa ukungena (ukuthenga okanye ukuthengisa) okanye ukuphuma (ukuthengisa okanye ukuthenga) kwimarike.
Apho kusetyenziswa i-avareji elula elinganayo, ngamanye amaxesha ibizwa ngokuba yi- simple moving-avareji (SMA) crossover. I-crossover enjalo ingasetyenziselwa ukubonakalisa utshintsho kwindlela kwaye ingasetyenziselwa ukuqalisa urhwebo kwinkqubo yokurhweba yomcebisi weengcali ngokuzenzekelayo.
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