Juni 3 • Amanqaku orhwebo nge Forex, Amagqabantshintshi eMarike • 5141 izimvo • Comments Off on "Thengisa ngoMeyi uhambe", ukuba nje kwakulula oko.
Ibinzana elithi "thengisa ngoMeyi uhambe" kucingelwa ukuba livela kwelesiNgesi lakudala; “Thengisa ngoMeyi uhambe ubuye ngoSuku lweSt. Leger.” Eli binzana libhekisa kwisiko kumaxesha angaphambili xa: oosomaqhuzu, abarhwebi, kunye neebhanki, bezakushiya isixeko esingcolileyo saseLondon kwaye babalekele elizweni, ngeenyanga ezishushu zasehlotyeni. Ukubuyela umva kwisixeko saseLondon, emva komdyarho wamahashe acabaleleyo eSt.
Lo mdyarho, owaqala ukubanjwa ngo-1776, iminyaka emithathu ubudala wazala ii-colts kunye neefillies, iseyinxalenye yomnyhadala weentsuku ezintathu womdyarho, owawubanjelwe eDoncaster emantla eNgilane. Yintlanganiso yokugqibela yomdyarho osisicaba wonyaka, ozisa ikhethini ezantsi kwixesha lokubaleka, njengoko kusondela inyanga zasebusika.
Ngexesha lenyanga kaMeyi 2019, iimarike zezabelo zamashishini e-USA zifumene ukuhla okumandla; I-SPX ibhalisile ukuwa kwayo okwesibini okukhulu ngenyanga ukusukela nge1960's. Ngexesha lenyanga kaMeyi i-SPX kunye ne-NASDAQ yawa iiveki ezine zilandelelana, i-DJIA yawa iiveki ezintandathu ngokulandelelana; elona xesha lide lilahlekileyo kwiminyaka esibhozo.
- I-DJIA yehle nge -6.69%.
- I-SPX yehle nge -6.58%.
- I-NASDAQ yawa -7.93%.
Ngexesha leveki yokugqibela yorhwebo kaMeyi.
- I-DJIA yehle nge -3.01%.
- I-SPX yehle nge -2.62%.
- I-NASDAQ yawa -2.41%.
Ukwehla kwexabiso lee-indices ze-USA equity kunye neyona manani yenyanga, kuya kuza kothuse ukuthengwa nokubanjwa, abatyali mali babucala bexesha elide. Kodwa kwihlabathi liphela, 24/6, usuku lwanamhlanje, iimeko zorhwebo, iya kuba sisigqibo esinzima sokuyeka ukurhweba: ii-equities, ii-indices, okanye ezinye iimarike, kwiinyanga ezine ezizayo.
Ngapha koko, ukuwohloka kubonelele ngeemeko zokurhweba ezigqwesileyo kubathengisi abafutshane be-indices zeemarike zase-USA ngenyanga kaMeyi, ngelixa zibonelela ukhuthazo kwezinye iimarike; ikakhulu iimarike zangaphambili nezorhwebo, ezazithengisa kumanqanaba abanzi kakhulu, kuyo yonke inyanga. Imeko ngokubanzi yokuhamba ibikhona, ngoncedo lokuphunyezwa kolawulo lukaTrump lokungenisa ngakumbi iirhafu zokungenisa e-China kunye nosongelo lweerhafu ezintsha, ngokuchasene neMexico ne-EU
Ngoku inyanga kaMeyi iphelile, abahlalutyi abaninzi kunye noqoqosho bazama ukuqikelela; "Yintoni eza kulandela, zisingise phi iimarike zezabelo?" Okubonakalayo, ngokusekwe kwiintengiso ezimbini ezithengiweyo kwezi kota zimbini zidlulileyo, kukuba uqoqosho lwehlabathi ngoku luyajika ngokusekelwe kwizenzo kunye namazwi kaMongameli wase-USA. Akunakwenzeka ukubalisa kwakhona kwaye uthelekise ixesha elidlulileyo; xa uhlalutyo olusisiseko kunye nobuchwephesha, lubuyiselwe kwisikhundla esingafunekiyo, ngokuchasene nomsebenzi weendaba zosasazo kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo ongakhethiyo wePOTUS.
Ngexesha lekota ezimbini zokugqibela zonyaka we-2018, iimarike zezabelo (kwihlabathi jikelele) ziye zathotywa njengokuba imfazwe yorhwebo kunye neerhafu zaqala ukusebenza. Ngexesha lenyanga kaMeyi, iipateni ziphindaphindwe, kunokucingelwa ngokukhuselekileyo ukuba iimarike zezabelo ziya kuhamba ngeendlela ezimbini. Ngaba abatyali mali bayakulinganisa ixabiso lendawo entsha kwaye iimarike ziya kurhweba ecaleni, okanye mhlawumbi baqhubeke nokuthengisa, bekhupha izinto ezisezantsi ezithunyelwe ngexesha lokwehla kuka-2018. Abatyalomali banokubhekisa kwi-P / E ratios, amaxabiso v kwimivuzo kwaye bathathe isigqibo ngohlobo lokuzonwabisa okungenangqondo lisekhona. Umyinge we-P / E wangoku we-SPX yi-circa 21, umndilili wokufunda ubuyela kwiminyaka ye-1950 isekota ye-16, ke ngoko, ingxabano ingabekwa phambili ukuba isalathiso sijikeleze iipesenti ezingama-23 ngaphezulu kwexabiso.
Abahlalutyi kaninzi babhekisa "kwixabiso elifanelekileyo" kwiimarike zezabelo kwaye ngelixa uninzi, olucatshulwe kumaphepha-ndaba abalulekileyo, kungokunje bacebisa ukuba ii-indices ze-USA ngoku zikufutshane nexabiso elifanelekileyo, abanye balumkisa ukuba amanqanaba okuhla kukaDisemba 2018, yafikelela kwakhona. Ukuqhubela phambili, endaweni yokuba kuthengiswe okulandelayo kukuqhutywa ziimvakalelo, nakuphi na ukuwa okuzayo, ukuba kuqikelelwa kwisiseko soxinzelelo lwezoqoqosho olubangelwe kukuma kweerhafu ezichaphazela urhwebo lwehlabathi, kunokubangelwa kukungabikho koluvo kunye neemetrikhi ezimbi kakhulu. Ngaphandle koko, iimarike zokulingana zase-USA kunye nezinye iindices zehlabathi zingaphakama; Abatyalomali banokujonga nje umrhumo kwaye bangahoyi iimetrikhi ezibalulekileyo, ezinjengokuhla kokukhula kwe-GDP kwaye bathenge nje idipsi.
Iimakethi ziqhutywa ziimvakalelo kunye nokuzithemba njengoko zinjalo ngedatha enzima. Ulawulo lukaTrump ekuqaleni luqinise ukuzithemba ngo-2017 kwaye lwaqhubeka nentengiso kunye nokubuyiselwa kwezoqoqosho, okwaqala phantsi kolawulo lwangaphambili. Ukuncitshiswa okubanzi kwerhafu okuphembelelwe kwimibutho ngo-2017-2018, ukuthatha amaxabiso asezantsi kangange-15%, kubangele ukuzuza kweemarike zokulingana kwe-2018. Nangona kunjalo, loo mpembelelo ngoku iyaphela, njengokuzithemba kwi-White House kunye ne-POTUS yokugcina umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali ongaguquguqukiyo.
Abanye abahlalutyi bacebisa ukuba ukuba uluhlu lweerhafu luyaqhubeka, kungekho zimpawu zonikezelo, ekuphela koncedo olunokulindelwa kukusikwa kwenqanaba lenzala ukusuka kwi-2.5%. Umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali osikiweyo onokuba yimfuneko ngenxa yoxinzelelo olunokuthinteleka lokwehla kwamandla emali. Ukudodobala okunokubakho okungazukubangelwa ngumjikelo wezoqoqosho ophela, kodwa ngenxa ye-POTUS, kuya kubonisa amava awodwa.
« Ngaba i-RBA, ibhanki esembindini yase-Australia, iyakusika umyinge wemali ukuya kwi-1.25% ukusuka kwi-1.50%, kwaye iyakusabela njani i-dollar yaseAussie ukuba bayayenza? Igolide inyukela kwelona nqanaba liphezulu ukusukela ngoFebruwari, iimarike ziqala ukuhla ngamaxabiso kwi-FOMC yokunciphisa ixabiso ngo-2019, ii-FAANGS ziyaphulukana nokulunywa kwazo. »
"Thengisa ngoMeyi uhambe", ukuba nje bekulula.
Juni 3 • Amanqaku orhwebo nge Forex, Amagqabantshintshi eMarike • 5141 izimvo • Comments Off on "Thengisa ngoMeyi uhambe", ukuba nje kwakulula oko.
Ibinzana elithi "thengisa ngoMeyi uhambe" kucingelwa ukuba livela kwelesiNgesi lakudala; “Thengisa ngoMeyi uhambe ubuye ngoSuku lweSt. Leger.” Eli binzana libhekisa kwisiko kumaxesha angaphambili xa: oosomaqhuzu, abarhwebi, kunye neebhanki, bezakushiya isixeko esingcolileyo saseLondon kwaye babalekele elizweni, ngeenyanga ezishushu zasehlotyeni. Ukubuyela umva kwisixeko saseLondon, emva komdyarho wamahashe acabaleleyo eSt.
Lo mdyarho, owaqala ukubanjwa ngo-1776, iminyaka emithathu ubudala wazala ii-colts kunye neefillies, iseyinxalenye yomnyhadala weentsuku ezintathu womdyarho, owawubanjelwe eDoncaster emantla eNgilane. Yintlanganiso yokugqibela yomdyarho osisicaba wonyaka, ozisa ikhethini ezantsi kwixesha lokubaleka, njengoko kusondela inyanga zasebusika.
Ngexesha lenyanga kaMeyi 2019, iimarike zezabelo zamashishini e-USA zifumene ukuhla okumandla; I-SPX ibhalisile ukuwa kwayo okwesibini okukhulu ngenyanga ukusukela nge1960's. Ngexesha lenyanga kaMeyi i-SPX kunye ne-NASDAQ yawa iiveki ezine zilandelelana, i-DJIA yawa iiveki ezintandathu ngokulandelelana; elona xesha lide lilahlekileyo kwiminyaka esibhozo.
Ngexesha leveki yokugqibela yorhwebo kaMeyi.
Ukwehla kwexabiso lee-indices ze-USA equity kunye neyona manani yenyanga, kuya kuza kothuse ukuthengwa nokubanjwa, abatyali mali babucala bexesha elide. Kodwa kwihlabathi liphela, 24/6, usuku lwanamhlanje, iimeko zorhwebo, iya kuba sisigqibo esinzima sokuyeka ukurhweba: ii-equities, ii-indices, okanye ezinye iimarike, kwiinyanga ezine ezizayo.
Ngapha koko, ukuwohloka kubonelele ngeemeko zokurhweba ezigqwesileyo kubathengisi abafutshane be-indices zeemarike zase-USA ngenyanga kaMeyi, ngelixa zibonelela ukhuthazo kwezinye iimarike; ikakhulu iimarike zangaphambili nezorhwebo, ezazithengisa kumanqanaba abanzi kakhulu, kuyo yonke inyanga. Imeko ngokubanzi yokuhamba ibikhona, ngoncedo lokuphunyezwa kolawulo lukaTrump lokungenisa ngakumbi iirhafu zokungenisa e-China kunye nosongelo lweerhafu ezintsha, ngokuchasene neMexico ne-EU
Ngoku inyanga kaMeyi iphelile, abahlalutyi abaninzi kunye noqoqosho bazama ukuqikelela; "Yintoni eza kulandela, zisingise phi iimarike zezabelo?" Okubonakalayo, ngokusekwe kwiintengiso ezimbini ezithengiweyo kwezi kota zimbini zidlulileyo, kukuba uqoqosho lwehlabathi ngoku luyajika ngokusekelwe kwizenzo kunye namazwi kaMongameli wase-USA. Akunakwenzeka ukubalisa kwakhona kwaye uthelekise ixesha elidlulileyo; xa uhlalutyo olusisiseko kunye nobuchwephesha, lubuyiselwe kwisikhundla esingafunekiyo, ngokuchasene nomsebenzi weendaba zosasazo kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo ongakhethiyo wePOTUS.
Ngexesha lekota ezimbini zokugqibela zonyaka we-2018, iimarike zezabelo (kwihlabathi jikelele) ziye zathotywa njengokuba imfazwe yorhwebo kunye neerhafu zaqala ukusebenza. Ngexesha lenyanga kaMeyi, iipateni ziphindaphindwe, kunokucingelwa ngokukhuselekileyo ukuba iimarike zezabelo ziya kuhamba ngeendlela ezimbini. Ngaba abatyali mali bayakulinganisa ixabiso lendawo entsha kwaye iimarike ziya kurhweba ecaleni, okanye mhlawumbi baqhubeke nokuthengisa, bekhupha izinto ezisezantsi ezithunyelwe ngexesha lokwehla kuka-2018. Abatyalomali banokubhekisa kwi-P / E ratios, amaxabiso v kwimivuzo kwaye bathathe isigqibo ngohlobo lokuzonwabisa okungenangqondo lisekhona. Umyinge we-P / E wangoku we-SPX yi-circa 21, umndilili wokufunda ubuyela kwiminyaka ye-1950 isekota ye-16, ke ngoko, ingxabano ingabekwa phambili ukuba isalathiso sijikeleze iipesenti ezingama-23 ngaphezulu kwexabiso.
Abahlalutyi kaninzi babhekisa "kwixabiso elifanelekileyo" kwiimarike zezabelo kwaye ngelixa uninzi, olucatshulwe kumaphepha-ndaba abalulekileyo, kungokunje bacebisa ukuba ii-indices ze-USA ngoku zikufutshane nexabiso elifanelekileyo, abanye balumkisa ukuba amanqanaba okuhla kukaDisemba 2018, yafikelela kwakhona. Ukuqhubela phambili, endaweni yokuba kuthengiswe okulandelayo kukuqhutywa ziimvakalelo, nakuphi na ukuwa okuzayo, ukuba kuqikelelwa kwisiseko soxinzelelo lwezoqoqosho olubangelwe kukuma kweerhafu ezichaphazela urhwebo lwehlabathi, kunokubangelwa kukungabikho koluvo kunye neemetrikhi ezimbi kakhulu. Ngaphandle koko, iimarike zokulingana zase-USA kunye nezinye iindices zehlabathi zingaphakama; Abatyalomali banokujonga nje umrhumo kwaye bangahoyi iimetrikhi ezibalulekileyo, ezinjengokuhla kokukhula kwe-GDP kwaye bathenge nje idipsi.
Iimakethi ziqhutywa ziimvakalelo kunye nokuzithemba njengoko zinjalo ngedatha enzima. Ulawulo lukaTrump ekuqaleni luqinise ukuzithemba ngo-2017 kwaye lwaqhubeka nentengiso kunye nokubuyiselwa kwezoqoqosho, okwaqala phantsi kolawulo lwangaphambili. Ukuncitshiswa okubanzi kwerhafu okuphembelelwe kwimibutho ngo-2017-2018, ukuthatha amaxabiso asezantsi kangange-15%, kubangele ukuzuza kweemarike zokulingana kwe-2018. Nangona kunjalo, loo mpembelelo ngoku iyaphela, njengokuzithemba kwi-White House kunye ne-POTUS yokugcina umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali ongaguquguqukiyo.
Abanye abahlalutyi bacebisa ukuba ukuba uluhlu lweerhafu luyaqhubeka, kungekho zimpawu zonikezelo, ekuphela koncedo olunokulindelwa kukusikwa kwenqanaba lenzala ukusuka kwi-2.5%. Umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali osikiweyo onokuba yimfuneko ngenxa yoxinzelelo olunokuthinteleka lokwehla kwamandla emali. Ukudodobala okunokubakho okungazukubangelwa ngumjikelo wezoqoqosho ophela, kodwa ngenxa ye-POTUS, kuya kubonisa amava awodwa.
« Ngaba i-RBA, ibhanki esembindini yase-Australia, iyakusika umyinge wemali ukuya kwi-1.25% ukusuka kwi-1.50%, kwaye iyakusabela njani i-dollar yaseAussie ukuba bayayenza? Igolide inyukela kwelona nqanaba liphezulu ukusukela ngoFebruwari, iimarike ziqala ukuhla ngamaxabiso kwi-FOMC yokunciphisa ixabiso ngo-2019, ii-FAANGS ziyaphulukana nokulunywa kwazo. »