Brexit 3

UK to debate the Brexit customs on July 16th and 17th, while the country’s reail industry lobby group warns on consequences of no-deal Brexit

Jul 6 • Morning Roll Call • 149 Views • No Comments

The date is set on when the British lawmakers will debate the proposed legislation on post-Brexit customs arrangements and trade, where Prime Minister Theresa May and pro-European Union lawmakers may once again come to the cross-roads in their opinions. The debates will be an opportunity for Britain to remain in the customs union with the EU. The customs policy was once ruled put by May, however the Prime Minister was unable to propose an alternative acceptable for her cabinet and Brusells, thus it became one of the most difficult negotiation point. The customs legislation (Taxation Bill) is expected to be debated on July 16th, while the following day, discussions will commence regarding the Trade Bill.

In addition, according to the UK retail industry lobby group, the UK and EU need to avoid a no-deal Brexit due to the belief it would raise prices, clog up food supplies and potentially throw retailers out of business, as reported by Reuters. The British Retail Consortium chairman has addressed a letter to Theresa May and EU Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, stating that a failure to reach a deal which would protect the free flow of goods after Brexit in March 2019, is going to harm UK consumers, as well as EU producers. It is important to mention that 50% of Britain’s food is imported and out of that 60% comes from the EU. The British Retail Consortium has estimated that approximately 12,500 small retail businesses would be forced to close down and EU businesses may lose 21 billion pounds of agro-food exports to the UK. It is expected that on Friday, Prime Minister May would propose a new plan that would ease trade and provide more freedom to set tariffs after Brexit occurs.

With regards to the macro-economic news, investors were focusing on the US jobless claims and ADP non-farm employment change, where both reading came with a disappointing actual figures. Namely, the number of American that have filed for unemployment rose last week to seasonally adjusted 231k, while the forecast was 225k. Nevertheless, the labor market is still seen as reaching near or full employment, where the jobless rate is 3.8%, lowest in 18 years and the unemployment is near to the Federal Reserve forecast of 3.6% by the end of 2018. In addition, US private employers have added only 177k jobs in the previous month, while the forecast was 190k. However, today we will see a more comprehensive non-farm payroll report that includes both public and private sector employment.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR EVENTS FOR JULY 6th

EUR German Industrial Production m/m
EUR French Trade Balance
GBP Halifax HPI m/m
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
USD Non-Farm Employment Change
USD Unemployment Rate
CAD Employment Change
CAD Trade Balance
CAD Unemployment Rate

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