SNAPSHOT EA BEKE BEKE 22 / 1-26 / 1 | Lipalo tsa kholo ea GDP ea USA le UK li tla hlahlojoa ka hloko bekeng e tlang, joalo ka ECB ha e kopana ho buisana le ho nka qeto mabapi le sekhahla sa phaello sa Eurozone
ECB e tla senola qeto ea eona ea morao-rao mabapi le sekhahla sa tsoala, sekhahla sa bohlokoa ke ho 0.00% mme ha ho na tebello ea tsoho. Le ha ho le joalo, pale e tsamaeang le eona e tsoang ho mopresidente oa ECB Mario Draghi e tla beoa leihlo ka hloko, ho fanoe ka boipelaetso ba haufinyane bo tsoang ho liofisiri tse fapaneng tsa ECB tse supang hore; boleng ba euro bo phahame haholo le hore morero oa APP o ka tsoelapele nako e telele ho feta kamoo ho boletsoeng pejana. Kholo ea GDP ea UK le eona e tla shebisoa bekeng e tlang, palo ea selemo le selemo e lebelletsoe ho lula ho 1.7%, e oele lipalo tse fetileng tsa circa 2.5% lilemong tsa morao tjena, tse ke keng tsa beoa molato ho Brexit, hobane UK ha e so o tlohetse EU hajoale.
Ho tla tsejoa haholo ka palo ea morao-rao ea selemo le selemo ea USA bekeng e tlang, ho oela ho tloha ho 3.2% ho ea ho 3% ho ka lebelloa, kholo e tsotehang ea 3% e ka nkuoa e le kahlolo ea pejana ea mopresidente oa selemo sa pele sa Trump, kapa o futsitse matla le kholo ho tloha Tsamaiso ea Obama? CPI ea Canada hajoale e ntse e sebetsa ka 2.1%, ka ha e sa tsoa nyolla litefiso ho 1.25% palo ena e tla shebeloa ka hloko, joalo ka lipalo tsa CPI tsa nako e tlang nakong e khuts'oane ho isa ho e bohareng, ho fumana hore na BOC mohlomong e nepahetse, kapa e potlakile haholo, ho phahamiseng sekhahla se matla haholo likhoeling tse robeli tse fetileng.
Mantaha e qala beke ka feshene e khutsitseng ka lintlha tsa thekiso ea lebenkele la condo le bonolo tse tsoang Japane. Ha limmaraka tsa Yuropa li bula metriki ea Switzerland ho libanka le phepelo ea chelete e tla lokolloa. Joale tlhokomelo e fetohela Amerika Leboea; Ho phatlalatsoa lipalo tsa khoebo tsa Canada ka bongata, joalo ka lenane la mesebetsi ea naha ea Chicago Fed. Mantsiboeeng a morao-rao lintlha tsa morao-rao tsa lits'ebeletso tsa New Zealand li senotsoe.
Labobeli hoseng kopanong ea Asia Banka e bohareng ea Japane BOJ e tla phatlalatsa qeto ea eona mabapi le sekhahla sa tsoala, ponelopele e makatsang ke ea ho ts'oara -0.1% sekhahla. BOJ e tla boela e phatlalatse tlaleho ea eona ea morao-rao ea pono ho tsamaisana le qeto, liketsahalo tse peli li ka bona ts'ebetso e eketsehileng ka yen kapa nakong ea tokollo. Japane e lula e shebane le thekiso ea mabenkele a Tokyo, thekiso ea mabenkele naheng ka bophara, li-odara tsa lisebelisoa tsa mochini le lintlha tsohle tsa mesebetsi ea indasteri kaofela tse phatlalalitsoeng.
Ho tsoa UK re amohela lipalo tsa morao-rao tsa kalimo ea mmuso, ha mokhatlo oa khoebo oa CBI o tla phatlalatsa tlhaiso-leseling e mabapi le: thekiso, boits'epo le litaelo. Liphuputso tse fapaneng tsa ZEW bakeng sa Jeremane le Eurozone lia phatlalatsoa, tse akaretsang maikutlo le litebello, ho baloa ha morao-rao (ka Pherekhong) ho bala ha boits'epo ba bareki ba Eurozone le hona ho tla fanoa. Litaba feela tsa bohlokoa tse tsoang USA li kenyelletsa phatlalatso ea lenane la morao-rao la tlhahiso ea Richmond bakeng sa Pherekhong. Mantsiboeeng a lipalo tsa Japane tsa morao-rao tsa chelete e setseng (masalla) lia lokolloa, hangata e le sesupo sa bophelo bo botle ba likarolo tsa Japane tsa tlhahiso le tsa kantle ho naha.
On Laboraro Hoseng lipalo tsa index ea litheko tsa kantle ho naha tsa Jeremane lia phatlalatsoa, ebe tsepamiso e potlakela ho projeke ea tlhahiso ea Japane ea PMI, hamorao hoseng li-indices tsa Japane tse etelletseng pele le tse tsamaellanang li ea tlisoa. Lintlha tsa karete ea mokitlane ea December bakeng sa New Zealand li ka senola ts'ebetso ea tšebeliso ea chelete ea selemo. Ha limmaraka tsa Europe li bula mekoloko ea: litšebeletso, tlhahiso le li-PMI tse ngata li phatlalatsoa bakeng sa: Jeremane, Fora le Eurozone e pharaletseng. Lipalo-palo tse fapaneng tsa data tse thata bakeng sa UK ho kenyeletsoa mosebetsi le ho hloka mosebetsi li tla lokolloa hoseng, kholo ea hajoale ea moputso e ho 2.3%, bahlahlobi ba tla lekola palo ena haufi-ufi, ka lebaka la infleishene ea UK e ntseng e sebetsa ka 3% hajoale.
Lintlha tsa moruo oa Amerika li qala ka likopo tsa beke le beke tsa mekoloto ea ntlo le lenane la morao-rao la theko ea ntlo, eo pele e neng e le 0.5% ea palo ea Pulungoana e lebelletsoe ho oela ho 0.4%. Li-PMI tsa Markit tsa USA li tla fanoa; lits'ebeletso, tse kopantsoeng le tlhahiso, ponelopele ke ea hore tlhahiso e oele ho 55 ho tloha 55.1. Ho hakanngoa hore thekiso e seng e le teng ea lehae e bonts'a ho oa (nako ea selemo) ea -2.8% ka Tshitwe, ho tloha ho phahama ea 5.6% ka Pulungoana. Liketsahalo tsa bohlokoa tsa khalendara ea moruo ea letsatsi li fela ka palo ea CPI YoY ea New Zealand bakeng sa Q4 2017, tebello ke ea phetoho e nyane, ho tloha sekhahla sa hajoale sa selemo sa 1.9%.
Labone e qala ka ho tsepamisa mohopolo ho data ea Jeremane; lipalo tse fapaneng tsa khoebo ea IFO le ho baloa ha boits'epo ba bareki ba GfK. Libanka tsa UK li phatlalatsa metriki ea bona ea morao-rao mekolotong ea matlo. ECB e tla senola liqeto tsa bona tsa morao-rao tsa sekhahla sa tsoala, tebello ke hore sekhahla se ka sehloohong sa kalimo se tla sala ho 0.00%, mme sekhahla sa peeletso e le -0.4%.
Ha ho tsepamisoa maikutlo ho leba ho Amerika Leboea lintlha tsa morao-rao tsa thekiso ea mabenkele li phatlalalitsoe, joalo ka ha mabenkele a USA le mabenkele a mangata, hammoho le palo ea morao-rao ea thepa e tsoetseng pele ea thepa; e lebelletsoe ho oela ho - $ 68.8b, ho tloha ka Pulungoana ha ho baloa - $ 69.7. Ka Labone litlaleho tsa morao-rao tsa USA tse hlokang mosebetsi le data e tsoelang pele ea likopo e lula e phatlalatsoa, palo ea morao-rao ea thekiso ea matlo le eona e tla lokolloa, palo ea December e lebelletsoe ho theohela ho -8.9%, ho tloha ho 17.5%.
Mantsiboea mantsiboea a shebile moruong oa Japane; CPI YoY ho fihlela ka December ho hakanngoa hore e tla lula circa 0.6%, nakoana kamora ho lokolloa hona, metsotso e tsoang kopanong ea morao-rao ea leano la lichelete ea BOJ e tla senoloa.
Labohlano e tsoela pele ka lintlha tsa Majapane; Boitsebiso bo rekang bonto bo ka senola mmuso le BOJ leano le tsoelang pele la lichelete le tsa lichelete. Lintlha tse fapaneng tse nang le tšusumetso e tlase tse tsoang UK li tla phatlalatsoa, pele palo ea morao-rao ea GDP e senoloa ke ONS; e lebelletsoe ho boloka palo ea hajoale ea kholo ea selemo le selemo ea 1.7%, mme kotara ea ho qetela ea 2017 e tla lipakeng tsa 0.4% -0.5%. Ho phatlalatsoa sehlopha sa litaba tsa infoleishene ea Canada, ho kenyeletsoa le palo ea bohlokoa ea CPI, e lebelletsoeng ho lula ho 2.1% e tla tsepamisoa mohopolo mabapi le CAD, kaha BOC haufinyane e nyollotse sekhahla sa tsoala ho 1.25%. Lipalo tsa selemo le selemo tsa Q4 YoY GDP bakeng sa USA li lebelletsoe ho senola ho oela ho 3% ho tloha 3.2%. Beke e fela ka data ea morao-rao ea Baker Hughes rig count, e khahlisang haholo morao tjena, ka lebaka la ho phahama ha theko ea oli ea WTI.
« Limmaraka tsa lichelete tsa Amerika li hloleha ho ba le litlaleho tse phahameng, khato ea theko ea chelete ea fokola, khoebo ea khauta ka thoko Na limmaraka tsa tekano tsa USA li tla iphapanyetsa ho koaloa ha mmuso oa Federal mme li tsoelepele ho nyolohela boemong bo phahameng ba rekoto? »
