Kutengesa nemavhareji anofamba, iwo chiporofita chekuzvizadzisa kana zviratidziro zvine simba?
Vatengesi vazhinji munharaunda medu vachayeuka zvakajeka nguva iyo yavakatanga kufarira ongororo yehunyanzvi. Vazhinji vachapupura kuchokwadi chekuti yaifambisa mavhavha ayo akatanga kuwedzera kufarira kwavo. Pamwe taizoisa avhareji yemazuva makumi maviri nerimwe yekufamba pane chati chezuva nezuva uye ndokuona kuti mutengo wakaita sei pawakasangana nechipingamupinyi ichi. Yakayambuka nepakati payo, mutengo wakarambwa, wakafamba uchienda padivi mune hwakawanda?
Isu tinobva taenda kumusoro kunotarisa zana, kana mazana maviri emazuva ari nyore kufamba avhareji (SMA) mushure mekunge taigara tichiona kutaurwa kwavo muzvinyorwa zvakaburitswa neBloomberg kana Reuters. Isu taigara tichiona makotesheni aive iwo zvinyorwa zvaiongororwa vaongorori vachiratidza kuti mutengo waive padyo ne, kana kuti wainge uchangobva kupfuura, iyi mitsara yakatsemurwa yakadhonzwa pamachati edu. Zvairevei?
Kufambira mberi kwechisikigo kuri kuisa dzinoverengeka zveaya mavhavha anofamba pane chati yevanilla iyo ine zvimwe zvishoma pairi kunze kwemutengo unomiririrwa nebhawa kana mutsetse. Isu tinobva tacherekedza akawanda eanofamba mavhareji achiyambuka pane yedu yezuva chati. Isu tinocherekedza rezasi 21 zuva SMA ichidarika iyo 50 SMA nguva dzose. Ipapo mwenje unodzokororwa mupfungwa dzedu uye tinoshamisika kana tichigona kuwedzera mazuva gumi anofamba avhareji kune muraraungu wedu wezviratidzo zvine mavara. Isu tobva tacherekedza kuti semutengo unofamba uchikwira kana kudzika, kuitira kuti uenzane neanosimudzira kana emhepo manzwiro, iwo makumi maviri anoyambuka makumi mashanu mune zvinoita kunge chiitiko chakabatana.
Yedu inotevera mira ndeye 'kuomesa' iyo yegumi zuva SMA kubata. Ngatitii tinoita EMA inopesana neyakareruka inofamba avhareji. Zvino isu tinoona kuti kusiyana, kure neyakakwirira yekufamba avhareji, kunotonyanya kupinza kana isu tichishandisa exponential vhezheni. Kazhinji panguva ino mutengesi metamorphosis yatinotanga kuona kuti kufamba kweavhareji kunogona kuve maturusi ane simba kana ikashandiswa nemazvo. Uye kune zvekare kumwe iko kushandiswa kwakakosha uko kungangotonga mashandisiro avo pamusoro uye pamusoro kutsvaga mutengo wekuita uye kusiyana kwaro - uko maodha angave akabatanidzwa.
Chiono chatinacho mumusoro medu revatengesi vemasangano ndechekuti vanoita bhizinesi ravo rekutengesa, kana vachitenga nekutengesa mapara emari, nenzira yakafanana nesu, asi kuti vane mabhangi evatariri ekutengesa nawo uye maakaundi mahombe ekutengesa kubva. Ichi chiratidzo chakakanganisa zvakanyanya sezvo nzira dzekutengesa dzinoshandiswa nevatengesi vemasangano dzakasiyana zvakanyanya kubva kune dzinoitwa nevatengesi vezvitoro.
Hazvigoneki kuti vanofambisa misika uye vagadziri vanoshandisa musanganiswa weMACD, PSAR, DMI, ADX neRSI kuita sarudzo, kazhinji mirairo yavo; tenga, mira uye utore purofiti muganho maodha, inoenda mukutarisa manhamba akatenderera uye makiyi anofamba mavhareji akadai se100 kana 200 maMAA. Institutional level vatengesi vanozove nemahombe madhayeti akakomberedza makiyi ekubata, senge atakaona nguva pfupi yadarika neAUD / USD padanho rakakosha re90.000. Vachavewo nemaodha mazhinji akabatanidzwa akatenderedza zana ne100 maSMA.
Kufambisa mavhareji; mavambo avo, kushandiswa uye kuverenga
Kufambisa avhareji inotsvedza iyo yemutengo data kuti vagadzire iyo inotevera chinongedzo. Ivo havafanofungidzira mutengo wedhairekitori, asi vanotsanangudza ratidziro yazvino ne lag. Kufambisa mavhavha emarara nekuti akavakirwa pamitengo yakapfuura. Kunyangwe paine lag iyi, kufamba kweavhareji kunobatsira kutapudza mutengo chiito uye kusefa kunze kweruzha. Ivo zvakare vanogadzira zvivakwa zvekuvaka zvimwe zvakawanda zvehunyanzvi zviratidzo uye zvakapetwa, senge Bollinger Bands uye iyo MACD. Mhando mbiri dzakakurumbira dzemafambiro ari kufamba ndeyeRinyore Richifambisa Avhareji (SMA) uye neExponential Moving Avhareji (EMA). Iyi avhareji inofamba inogona kushandiswa kuratidza kutungamira kwechimiro kana kutsanangura zvingangoita rutsigiro uye nhanho dzekudzivirira.
Avhareji inofambisa avhareji inoumbwa nekomputa iyo yepakati mutengo wekuchengetedzeka pane yakatarwa nhamba yenguva. Mazhinji mafambiro anofamba akavakirwa pamitengo yekuvhara. A5-mazuva akapusa anofamba avhareji ndeye mashanu ezuva muganho wekuvhara mitengo yakakamurwa nemashanu. Sezvinoreva zita rayo, avhareji inofamba ivhareji inofamba. Dhata rekare rakadonhedzwa sezvo data nyowani richiwanika. Izvi zvinokonzeresa kuti avhareji ifambe pamwe neyakaenzana nguva. Pazasi pane muenzaniso we5-zuva rinofamba avhareji rinoshanduka kupfuura mazuva matatu.
Kufambisa avhareji crossover yekutengesa pfungwa
Iyo inofamba-avhareji crossover inoitika kana uchironga maviri anofamba mavhavha imwe neimwe zvichienderana nemadhigirii akasiyana ekutsvedza, zvisaririra zveaya anofamba mavhavha kuyambuka. Iyo haifembere mafambiro eremangwana asi inoratidza mafambiro. Ichi chiratidzo chinoshandisa maviri (kana kupfuura) avhavha inofamba, inononoka kufamba pakati uye inokurumidza kufamba pakati. Iyo inokurumidza kufamba avhareji ipfupi pfupi inofamba avhareji. Kune yekupedzisira-yezuva misika, semuenzaniso, inogona kunge iri mashanu, gumi kana makumi maviri nemashanu mazuva epakati nepo inononoka inofamba yevhareji iri yepakati kana yakareba kwenguva refu inofamba avhareji (semuenzaniso, 5, 10 kana mazana maviri ezuva nguva). Yepfupi pfupi inofamba avhareji inokurumidza nekuti inongotarisa mitengo pamusoro penguva pfupi uye nekudaro inoitisa shanduko pamutengo wezuva nezuva. Kune rimwe divi, chiyero chenguva refu chinofamba chinoonekwa sechinononoka sezvo ichivhara mitengo kwenguva yakareba uye iri kutyisa. Nekudaro, iyo inowanzo tenderera kutapudza ruzha rwemitengo iyo inowanzo kuve inoratidzwa munguva pfupi inofamba mafambiro.
Avhareji inofamba inowanzo kufukidzwa mumataiti emitengo kuratidza mutengo wemitengo. Crossover inoitika kana avhareji inokurumidza kufamba (kureva., Ipfupi nguva inofamba avhareji) inodarika avhareji inofamba inononoka (kureva. Mune mamwe mazwi, ino ndiyo nguva ipfupi inofamba pakati nepakati mutsara unoyambuka wakareba nguva uchifamba wepakati mutsara. Mukushambadzira nzvimbo yemusangano iyi inoshandiswa kupinda (kutenga kana kutengesa) kana kubuda (kutengesa kana kutenga) pamusika.
Iko kuri nyore zvakaenzana-kuyerwa-kufamba-mavhavha anoshandiswa dzimwe nguva kunzi kuri nyore kufamba-pakati (SMA) crossover. Crossover yakadaro inogona kushandiswa kuratidza shanduko muitiro uye inogona kushandiswa kutanga kutengeserana mune otomatiki nyanzvi chipangamazano yekutengesa system.
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