Epulo 24 • Zogulitsa Zamalonda, Ndemanga za Msika • 3404 Views • Comments Off pa Kodi kusakhazikika ndi chiyani, mungasinthire bwanji njira yanu yogulitsira ndipo ingakhudze bwanji zotsatira zanu zamalonda?
Ndizosadabwitsa kuti ambiri amalonda a FX ogulitsa, amalephera kuvomereza kusakhazikika komwe kungakhalepo pazamalonda awo. Mutuwu, monga chodabwitsa komanso momwe ungakhudzire mfundo yanu, sunafotokozedwe mokwanira m'nkhani, kapena pamabwalo amalonda. Zomwe zimangochitika mwa apo ndi apo, zimangochitika. Chomwe ndi kuyang'anira kwakukulu, kutengera mfundo yakuti (monga phunziro), ndi chimodzi mwa zinthu zosamvetsetseka komanso zosaiwalika, zomwe zimakhudzidwa ndi malonda misika yonse, osati FX yokha.
Tanthauzo la kusakhazikika likhoza kukhala "chiwerengero cha kugawa kwa zobweza kwa chitetezo chilichonse, kapena index ya msika". Mwachidule; kumtunda kwa kusakhazikika nthawi iliyonse, chitetezo chimaganiziridwa kukhala chowopsa. Kusasunthika kungayesedwe pogwiritsa ntchito njira zopatuka, kapena kusiyana pakati pa zobwerera kuchokera kuchitetezo chomwecho, kapena index index ya msika. Kusasunthika kwakukulu nthawi zambiri kumagwirizanitsidwa ndi kusinthasintha kwakukulu, komwe kumachitika kumbali zonse. Mwachitsanzo, ngati gulu la FX likukwera kapena kutsika ndi gawo limodzi mwa magawo khumi pa magawo a tsiku, likhoza kuwerengedwa ngati msika "wosasinthika".
Kusokonekera kwa msika kwamisika yaku USA, kumatha kuwonedwa ndi zomwe zimatchedwa "Volatility Index". VIX idapangidwa ndi Chicago Board Options Exchange, imagwiritsidwa ntchito ngati muyeso woyezera kusakhazikika kwamasiku makumi atatu pamsika wamasheya waku US ndipo imachokera kumitengo yanthawi yeniyeni ya SPX 500, kuyimba ndikuyika zosankha. VIX kwenikweni ndi chiwerengero chosavuta cha kubetcha kwamtsogolo komwe osunga ndalama ndi amalonda akupanga, molunjika kumisika, kapena zotetezedwa zapayekha. Kuwerenga kwakukulu pa VIX kumatanthauza msika wa riskier.
Palibe zizindikiro zodziwika bwino zaukadaulo, zomwe zimapezeka pamapulatifomu monga MetaTrader MT4, zidapangidwa makamaka ndi mutu wakusakhazikika m'malingaliro. Magulu a Bollinger, Commodity Channel Index ndi Average True Range, ndi zisonyezo zaukadaulo zomwe zitha kuwonetsa mwaukadaulo kusintha kwakusakhazikika, koma palibe chomwe chapangidwa kuti chipange metric yokhazikika. RVI (Relative Volatility Index) idapangidwa kuti iwonetse momwe kusinthika kwamitengo kumasinthira. Komabe, sichipezeka kwambiri ndipo mawonekedwe a RVI ndikuti amangotsimikizira zizindikiro zina za oscillating (RSI, MAСD, Stochastic ndi ena) popanda kuzibwereza. Pali ma widget ena omwe amaperekedwa ndi ogulitsa, omwe amatha kuwonetsa kusintha kwa kusakhazikika, izi sizipezeka ngati zizindikiro, ndizodziyimira zokha, zida zamasamu.
Kuperewera kwa kusasunthika (monga chodabwitsa) chokhudza FX, posachedwapa kunasonyezedwa ndi kugwa kwa awiriawiri opambana, okhudzana mwachindunji ndi kugwa kwakukulu kwa malonda a malonda awiriawiri monga GBP/USD. Kutsika kwamitengo yamagulu a GBP ndi kayendedwe, kunali kogwirizana mwachindunji ndi tchuthi cha banki ya Isitala komanso kupuma kwa Nyumba Yamalamulo yaku UK. Misika ingapo ya FX idatsekedwa panthawi yatchuthi kubanki Lolemba ndi Lachisanu, pomwe aphungu aku UK adatenga tchuthi cha milungu iwiri. Pa nthawi ya tchuthi, nkhani ya Brexit idachotsedwa makamaka pamitu yodziwika bwino yapa media, monga momwe zinalili zofunikira zomwe zimakhudza mtengo wa sterling, motsutsana ndi anzawo.
Panthawi yopuma, kukwera mtengo kwamitengo, komwe kumawonetsedwa nthawi zambiri m'miyezi yaposachedwa, pomwe UK idakumana ndi mapiri osiyanasiyana okhudzana ndi Brexit, sizinawonekenso pamafelemu osiyanasiyana. Nthawi zambiri, awiriawiri odziwika bwino amagulitsana cham'mbali mkati mwa milungu yomwe a MP ku UK sanalinso kuwoneka, kapena kumveka. Mosavuta; malonda ongoyerekeza mu sterling adagwa kwambiri, chifukwa Brexit monga phunziro, idagwa pa radar. Ziwerengero zingapo zikuwonetsa kuti kusakhazikika kwabwino kunali pafupifupi 50% kutsika pamapu opumira a Nyumba yamalamulo. Ma awiriawiri monga EUR/GBP ndi GBP/USD amagulitsidwa mothina, makamaka m'mbali, m'magulu, kwa pafupifupi milungu iwiri. Koma aphungu a ku UK atangobwerera ku maofesi awo ku Westminster, Brexit adabwereranso pazochitika zamagulu akuluakulu azachuma.
Zongopeka mu Sterling yomweyo chinawonjezeka ndi mtengo mwachiwawa kukwapulidwa osiyanasiyana, oscillating pakati pa zinthu bullish ndi bearish, potsiriza inagwa S3, Lachiwiri April 23rd, pamene nkhani zinayamba za kupanda patsogolo kukambirana pakati pa zipani ziwiri zikuluzikulu za ndale UK. Mwadzidzidzi, ngakhale kusinthidwa kwa Tsiku la Groundhog lomwe linalipo nthawi yopuma isanakwane, kusakhazikika bwino, zochitika ndi mwayi zidabwereranso pa radar. Ndikofunikira kuti amalonda a FX asamangozindikira kuti kusakhazikika ndi chiyani komanso chifukwa chake kungachuluke, komanso, nthawi yomwe zingachitike. Zitha kuchulukirachulukira chifukwa cha nkhani zabodza, zochitika zandale zapanyumba, kapena chifukwa cha zinthu zomwe zikuchitika zomwe zikusintha kwambiri. Ziribe chifukwa chake, ndi chodabwitsa chomwe chimayenera kuyang'aniridwa ndi kulemekezedwa kwambiri kuchokera kwa ogulitsa FX ogulitsa, kuposa momwe amachitira.
Kusasinthasintha ndi chiyani, mungasinthe bwanji njira yanu yamalonda ndipo ingakhudze bwanji zotsatira zanu zamalonda?
Epulo 24 • Zogulitsa Zamalonda, Ndemanga za Msika • 3404 Views • Comments Off pa Kodi kusakhazikika ndi chiyani, mungasinthire bwanji njira yanu yogulitsira ndipo ingakhudze bwanji zotsatira zanu zamalonda?
Ndizosadabwitsa kuti ambiri amalonda a FX ogulitsa, amalephera kuvomereza kusakhazikika komwe kungakhalepo pazamalonda awo. Mutuwu, monga chodabwitsa komanso momwe ungakhudzire mfundo yanu, sunafotokozedwe mokwanira m'nkhani, kapena pamabwalo amalonda. Zomwe zimangochitika mwa apo ndi apo, zimangochitika. Chomwe ndi kuyang'anira kwakukulu, kutengera mfundo yakuti (monga phunziro), ndi chimodzi mwa zinthu zosamvetsetseka komanso zosaiwalika, zomwe zimakhudzidwa ndi malonda misika yonse, osati FX yokha.
Tanthauzo la kusakhazikika likhoza kukhala "chiwerengero cha kugawa kwa zobweza kwa chitetezo chilichonse, kapena index ya msika". Mwachidule; kumtunda kwa kusakhazikika nthawi iliyonse, chitetezo chimaganiziridwa kukhala chowopsa. Kusasunthika kungayesedwe pogwiritsa ntchito njira zopatuka, kapena kusiyana pakati pa zobwerera kuchokera kuchitetezo chomwecho, kapena index index ya msika. Kusasunthika kwakukulu nthawi zambiri kumagwirizanitsidwa ndi kusinthasintha kwakukulu, komwe kumachitika kumbali zonse. Mwachitsanzo, ngati gulu la FX likukwera kapena kutsika ndi gawo limodzi mwa magawo khumi pa magawo a tsiku, likhoza kuwerengedwa ngati msika "wosasinthika".
Kusokonekera kwa msika kwamisika yaku USA, kumatha kuwonedwa ndi zomwe zimatchedwa "Volatility Index". VIX idapangidwa ndi Chicago Board Options Exchange, imagwiritsidwa ntchito ngati muyeso woyezera kusakhazikika kwamasiku makumi atatu pamsika wamasheya waku US ndipo imachokera kumitengo yanthawi yeniyeni ya SPX 500, kuyimba ndikuyika zosankha. VIX kwenikweni ndi chiwerengero chosavuta cha kubetcha kwamtsogolo komwe osunga ndalama ndi amalonda akupanga, molunjika kumisika, kapena zotetezedwa zapayekha. Kuwerenga kwakukulu pa VIX kumatanthauza msika wa riskier.
Palibe zizindikiro zodziwika bwino zaukadaulo, zomwe zimapezeka pamapulatifomu monga MetaTrader MT4, zidapangidwa makamaka ndi mutu wakusakhazikika m'malingaliro. Magulu a Bollinger, Commodity Channel Index ndi Average True Range, ndi zisonyezo zaukadaulo zomwe zitha kuwonetsa mwaukadaulo kusintha kwakusakhazikika, koma palibe chomwe chapangidwa kuti chipange metric yokhazikika. RVI (Relative Volatility Index) idapangidwa kuti iwonetse momwe kusinthika kwamitengo kumasinthira. Komabe, sichipezeka kwambiri ndipo mawonekedwe a RVI ndikuti amangotsimikizira zizindikiro zina za oscillating (RSI, MAСD, Stochastic ndi ena) popanda kuzibwereza. Pali ma widget ena omwe amaperekedwa ndi ogulitsa, omwe amatha kuwonetsa kusintha kwa kusakhazikika, izi sizipezeka ngati zizindikiro, ndizodziyimira zokha, zida zamasamu.
Kuperewera kwa kusasunthika (monga chodabwitsa) chokhudza FX, posachedwapa kunasonyezedwa ndi kugwa kwa awiriawiri opambana, okhudzana mwachindunji ndi kugwa kwakukulu kwa malonda a malonda awiriawiri monga GBP/USD. Kutsika kwamitengo yamagulu a GBP ndi kayendedwe, kunali kogwirizana mwachindunji ndi tchuthi cha banki ya Isitala komanso kupuma kwa Nyumba Yamalamulo yaku UK. Misika ingapo ya FX idatsekedwa panthawi yatchuthi kubanki Lolemba ndi Lachisanu, pomwe aphungu aku UK adatenga tchuthi cha milungu iwiri. Pa nthawi ya tchuthi, nkhani ya Brexit idachotsedwa makamaka pamitu yodziwika bwino yapa media, monga momwe zinalili zofunikira zomwe zimakhudza mtengo wa sterling, motsutsana ndi anzawo.
Panthawi yopuma, kukwera mtengo kwamitengo, komwe kumawonetsedwa nthawi zambiri m'miyezi yaposachedwa, pomwe UK idakumana ndi mapiri osiyanasiyana okhudzana ndi Brexit, sizinawonekenso pamafelemu osiyanasiyana. Nthawi zambiri, awiriawiri odziwika bwino amagulitsana cham'mbali mkati mwa milungu yomwe a MP ku UK sanalinso kuwoneka, kapena kumveka. Mosavuta; malonda ongoyerekeza mu sterling adagwa kwambiri, chifukwa Brexit monga phunziro, idagwa pa radar. Ziwerengero zingapo zikuwonetsa kuti kusakhazikika kwabwino kunali pafupifupi 50% kutsika pamapu opumira a Nyumba yamalamulo. Ma awiriawiri monga EUR/GBP ndi GBP/USD amagulitsidwa mothina, makamaka m'mbali, m'magulu, kwa pafupifupi milungu iwiri. Koma aphungu a ku UK atangobwerera ku maofesi awo ku Westminster, Brexit adabwereranso pazochitika zamagulu akuluakulu azachuma.
Zongopeka mu Sterling yomweyo chinawonjezeka ndi mtengo mwachiwawa kukwapulidwa osiyanasiyana, oscillating pakati pa zinthu bullish ndi bearish, potsiriza inagwa S3, Lachiwiri April 23rd, pamene nkhani zinayamba za kupanda patsogolo kukambirana pakati pa zipani ziwiri zikuluzikulu za ndale UK. Mwadzidzidzi, ngakhale kusinthidwa kwa Tsiku la Groundhog lomwe linalipo nthawi yopuma isanakwane, kusakhazikika bwino, zochitika ndi mwayi zidabwereranso pa radar. Ndikofunikira kuti amalonda a FX asamangozindikira kuti kusakhazikika ndi chiyani komanso chifukwa chake kungachuluke, komanso, nthawi yomwe zingachitike. Zitha kuchulukirachulukira chifukwa cha nkhani zabodza, zochitika zandale zapanyumba, kapena chifukwa cha zinthu zomwe zikuchitika zomwe zikusintha kwambiri. Ziribe chifukwa chake, ndi chodabwitsa chomwe chimayenera kuyang'aniridwa ndi kulemekezedwa kwambiri kuchokera kwa ogulitsa FX ogulitsa, kuposa momwe amachitira.
« Kuwonongeka kwa dollar yaku Aussie motsutsana ndi anzawo, chifukwa kukwera kwamitengo kukugwa kwambiri, ma metric aku Germany a IFO amasowa kuneneratu, ndikuwonjezera mantha kuti Germany itha kulowa pansi pachuma. Kuchepa kwa madola aku Australasia, dola yaku US ikukwera, ndalama zaku US zatsika pamilandu yayikulu. »