MALO OGULITSIRA WEEKLY SNAPSHOT 2 / 10-6 / 10 | Kodi nambala yocheperako kwambiri ya NFP ingadabwe ndi misika?

Gawo 29 • Extras • 4423 Views • Comments Off pa MALO OTSOGOLERA PAMASabata 2 / 10-6 / 10 | Kodi nambala ya NFP yotsika kwambiri ingadabwe misika?

Ndi nthawi ya mwezi ija pomwe; nambala ya NFP ikasindikizidwa Lachisanu loyamba la mwezi watsopano. Kwa amalonda a novice atha kufunsa kuti kukangana kuli chiyani, komabe, amalonda omwe amachita nawo misika panthawi ya Kubwerera Kwakukulu, pomwe manambala a NFP atha kuwonetsa kutaya ntchito zoposa 700k m'mwezi umodzi, nthawi zonse amakhala malo ogulitsa nambala. Papita kanthawi kuchokera pomwe tidakumana ndi vuto la NFP, lomwe ndi lokwanira kusunthira misika yamalonda ku USA, kapena mtengo wa dola, koma Lachisanu kuneneratu ndikuti ntchito 50k zokhazokha zidapangidwa mu Seputembala, ndikuwonetsa izi Lachisanu ngati chochitika chowunika malo mosamala.

Zochitika zina zazikulu zomwe zakhudzidwa sabata ikubwerayi ndi monga: RBA ikukhazikitsa chiwongola dzanja cha Australia, kuwerengedwa kwa ISM ku USA ndi kuwerengera kwa Markit PMI kwa mayiko onse aku Europe ndi USA. Swiss CPI imasindikizidwa, monganso posachedwa kusowa kwa ntchito ku Canada komanso zambiri pantchito.

Sunday imayamba ndi index ya AiG yaku Australia, pakadali pano pa 59.8 ya Ogasiti kungosintha pang'ono pang'ono. Pambuyo pake tidzalandira raft ya data yaku Japan yaku Tankan, yotchuka kwambiri yomwe idzakhale opanga akulu komanso osapanga opanga zowerengera komanso malingaliro owonera. Kuwerenga konseku kukuyembekezeredwa kuwulula kusintha pang'ono ndipo boma la Japan lomwe lilipoli litasungunuka, pomwe Prime Minister Abe adayitanitsa zisankho mwachangu, zachuma zaku Japan zikuyenera kuyang'aniridwa bwino m'masabata akudza, mokhudzana ndi momwe zimakhudzira yen. Kugulitsa magalimoto ku Japan ndi Nikkei PMI yake yopanga, isindikizidwanso.

As Misika yaku Europe idatsegulidwa Lolemba Ziwerengero zaku Switzerland zidzagulitsidwa, zagwa ndi -0.7% mu Ogasiti, kusintha kudzafunidwa. Swiss SVME PMI ya Seputembala idzafalitsidwanso, pa 61.2 ya Ogasiti, chiyembekezo chikuyembekezeka kuwerengedwa. Kupanga ma PMI ku France, Germany ndi Italy kuperekedwa ndi a Markit, monga momwe angawerengere popanga Eurozone, pa 60.6 ya Ogasiti chiwerengerochi chikuyembekezeka kusungidwa, ngati sichingasinthidwe. PMI ya ku Manufacturing ku UK idzamasulidwa, makamaka chidwi chakuti chiphunzitso chachuma chovomerezeka chimanena kuti mapaundi ofooka, omwe amapezeka m'zigawo ziwiri zoyambirira za 2017, ayenera kuti adayambitsa chiwonetsero / kugulitsa kunja ku UK Canada ku Markit PMI kufalitsidwa pa Lolemba, monga momwe ziwerengero za ISM zowerengera ku USA, zowerengera za ISM ndizofunika kwambiri ku USA kuposa ma PMI a Markit, kuwerenga kofunikira ndikopanga, komwe kumayembekezeka kubwera ku 57.8, kutsika kuchokera ku 58.8 mu Ogasiti. Ndalama zomanga ku USA zikuyembekezeka kuti zakula mu Ogasiti mpaka kukula kwa 0.5%, kuchokera kugwa kwa 0.6% mu Julayi.

Lachiwiri imayamba ndi zidziwitso zamwezi ndi mwezi ku New Zealand pamitengo yogulitsa mkaka, kuphatikiza mphamvu zamkaka. Zogulitsa mkaka ndikutumiza kwakukulu kwa NZ kupita ku Asia, pomwe NZ idakumana ndi nyumba yamalamulo posachedwa pachisankho ndipo lingaliro loti chiwongola dzanja chiwonjezeke pa 1.75%, kusasinthasintha kwa zomwe zanenedwa kudzafunidwa. Banki yayikulu ku Australia (RBA) iulula chisankho chake pamitengo ya chiwongola dzanja, yomwe akuti sidzasintha pa 1.5%. Kuwerenga kwa chidaliro kwa ogula ku Japan kudzawunikidwa, kuyandikira pafupi ndi Prime Minister Abe akuyitanitsa zisankho mwachangu, kusungitsa chidaliro ndikofunikira kwambiri. PMI yomanga ku UK isindikizidwa, pa 51.1 ya Ogasiti idawulula kukula, komabe, izi sizinayende ndi data yaku UK ONS. Kodi opanga aku UK akuletsa ntchito, chifukwa cha kusatsimikizika kwa Brexit? Chakumadzulo kuwerenga kosiyanasiyana kwa Australia ndi New Zealand kudzafalitsidwa, kotchuka kwambiri ndi magwiridwe antchito a AiG of index index.

Lachitatu ikuchitira umboni mautumiki aku Japan ndi ma PMI angapo omwe adasindikizidwa, misika yaku Europe ikatsegula ma PMI okhudzana ndi Europe akusindikizidwa, kusindikiza, ntchito, ndi magawo a France, Italy, Germany, Eurozone ndi UK akufalitsidwa. Anthu aku UK akuyang'aniridwa bwino kwambiri, poganizira momwe zinthu ziliri ndi Brexit, ntchito ku 53.7 ndi gulu la 54 la Ogasiti, ziyenera kusamalidwa. Ngati sichoncho ndiye kuti chabwino kwambiri chitha kukhala chopanikizika. Zambiri zogulitsa ku Eurozone YoY zidzaululidwa, kuyembekezera kuti chiwerengerochi cha 2.6% chizikhala chofananira. Pomwe kusintha kukuyang'ana ku USA, ISM yopanga kuwerenga kwa ISM imasindikizidwa, ikuyembekezeka kubwera ku 55.3 ya Seputembala, kuwerenga komweku kolembedwa mu Ogasiti. Chakumadzulo nthawi yaku Europe, a Janet Yellen, wapampando wa Fed, apereka ndemanga pamabanki am'deralo ku St. Tsikuli limatha ndi mbiri yaku Japan yokhudza kugula ma bond zakunja ndi masheya.

Lachinayi imatsegulidwa ndi zidziwitso zaku Australia zakugulitsa ndi kugulitsa, ndi lingaliro lomwe lidapangidwa koyambirira sabata sabata yokhudzana ndi chiwongola dzanja cha Aus, manambala ovutawa adzawunikidwanso, kuti atsimikizire ngati chigamulochi chikugwirizana ndi magwiridwe antchito achuma . Pomwe misika yaku Europe ikukonzekera kutsegulidwa, metric yaposachedwa yaku Switzerland CPI isindikizidwa, palibe kusintha kuchokera ku 0.5% ya YoY yomwe ikuyembekezeredwa. PMI yomanga ku Germany idzaululidwa, kuwerenga kwa 54.9 kwa Ogasiti kuyenera kusamalidwa, a Markit awulutsanso ma PMI ogulitsa ku Germany, Eurozone, France ndi Italy. Zambiri zazikuluzikulu zaku Europe za tsikuli zimatha ndi lipoti pamsonkhano waposachedwa womwe udasindikizidwa. Pali zovuta zambiri zosakanikirana (za zovuta ndi zofewa), zochokera ku USA masana; Kudula ntchito kovuta, kusowa kwa ntchito sabata iliyonse, kuchuluka kwa malonda, maoda aku fakitole, katundu wolimba, pomwe akuluakulu awiri a Fed amakamba zokambirana pamabanki ndi pamisonkhano yantchito.

Friday akuwulula malipiro aku Japan ndi ndalama zomwe amapeza, zomwe zonse zidagwa mu Ogasiti, ziwonetsero zazikulu komanso zokwanira ku Japan zidzafalitsidwanso. Maulamuliro aku fakitale yaku Germany adzafalitsidwanso, pakadali pano akuwonjezeka ndi 5% YoY, ziwerengero za MoM posachedwa zidataya nyengo (pansi -0.7% mu Julayi), kubwerera kukuyembekezeredwa. Nkhani zakumapeto kwa ntchito ku Canada komanso kusowa kwa ntchito zidzalengezedwa, zomwe zikuchititsa chidwi mwezi womwe banki yayikulu yaku Canada idakulitsa chiwongola dzanja chake. Kusowa kwa ntchito pakadali pano kwa 6.2% sikuyembekezeka kusintha.

NPF yachizolowezi pamwezi (yopanda malipiro kumunda) idzalengezedwa Lachisanu, ntchito zatsopano 50k zokha za mwezi wa Seputembara zikuyembekezeredwa, makamaka pansi pa 156k zopangidwa mu Ogasiti komanso zochepera pamwezi pafupifupi circa 250k. Ngakhale deta ya NFP sinatulutse zozimitsa moto m'miyezi yaposachedwa (kapena zaka), izi zitha kusintha ngati munthu wotsikirayu atadabwitsa akatswiri ndi osunga ndalama. Avereji ya zopindulitsa akuti akwera ndi 0.3%, kuchokera ku 0.1% mu Ogasiti, zomwe zitha kukulitsa kulipira kwa malipiro apachaka, kuposa chiwonjezo cha 2.5% chomwe chikupezeka pano.

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