Feb 10 • Ndemanga za Msika • 11082 Views • 1 Comment pa The Baltic Dry Index Ndi Zolemba Zaku China
Baltic Dry Index Ndi Ziwerengero Zaku China Zowonetsa Nkhani Zaku China Zikufotokoza Nkhani Yomwe Akatswiri Ambiri Azachuma Samafuna Kuva
Ngati pangakhale index yodziwika bwino komanso yotchulidwa kwambiri yomwe idagwa zaka zopitilira 60% pachaka sikuti gulu lazachuma lingakhale lokhudzidwa kwambiri, atolankhani ambiri atha kukhala achinyengo pazomwe amachita. Mitu yayikuluyo imawonetsa zakumapeto kwa masiku. Kufuula, kwakuti tsoka losapeweka lomwe latsala pang'ono kuchitika, lingakhale logonthetsa ...
Palibe zikuluzikulu zazikuluzikulu zotchuka zomwe zagwa chaka ndi chaka Kukumbukira kwamoyo, mwina pangozi ya 2008-2009 kapena kukonza kwaposachedwa kotala chomaliza cha 2011. Chapafupi kwambiri zomwe tidakumana nazo pamavuto azachuma ku Eurozone anali / ndikusintha kwakusinthana kwa Atene, komwe kudagwa ndi circa 50% pachaka ndipo izi zidachitika ngakhale pakuwonjezeka kwa 30% kuyambira kutsika kwaposachedwa kwa Jan 10th. Koma ASE, ngakhale ikuyang'ana ku Athens, sichingatchulidwe ngati "cholozera chachikulu".
Bwanji ngati chiwonetsero chodziwika bwino chazachuma chomwe chimaganiziridwa chinali chatsika pafupifupi 60% pachaka, monga SPX kapena FTSE 100? Kusunthira pambali chikhulupiriro chilichonse chonena kuti misika yayikulu sinalinso njira yolunjika yazaumoyo wakale, chifukwa cha malingaliro a zirp, zopulumutsa, zopulumutsa, tarp ndi zochepetsera zochulukirapo zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale ziphuphu zabodza zomwe sizigwirizana kwenikweni ndi zachuma, ngati ziphuphu zazikulu zidavutikira kugwa koteroko, zonena zake zimakhala zodabwitsa.
Pali mndandanda umodzi womwe akatswiri azachuma, owonetsa misika komanso owunikira pamsika amayang'anitsitsa nyengo ndipo mwina, chifukwa misika yayikulu idasinthidwa ndikutulutsa maphukusi opulumutsa, ikuwonetseratu zowonekera pamisika yapadziko lonse lapansi momwe idakhalira pamiyeso yazachuma padziko lonse lapansi monga kupezeka ndi kufunikira, kutumiza ndi kutumiza kunja, imadziwika kuti Baltic Dry Index.
Ndi kwakanthawi komanso koyenera kutchula cholozera ichi malinga ndi ziwerengero zomwe zatulutsidwa m'mawa kuchokera ku China zokhudzana ndi zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja ndikulowetsa kunja; Zogulitsa ku China zidachepa mu Januware poyerekeza ndi nthawi yomweyi chaka chapitacho, zomwe zidadzetsa nkhawa kuti kufunikira kwakunja kwakunja kukuwononga chuma chomwe chimayendetsedwa kunja.
Ziwerengero zomwe zatulutsidwa Lachisanu ndi bungwe loyang'anira zikhalidwe zikuwonetsa kuti kutumizidwa kumayiko ena kwatsika ndi 15.3% mpaka $ 122.6 biliyoni, pomwe kutumizira kunja kudatsika ndi 0.5% mpaka $ 149.9 biliyoni. Ndi mbiri yoyipa kwambiri yamalonda kuyambira 2009. Zotsalira zamalonda zandale zaku China zidakwera mpaka $ 27.3 biliyoni mu Januware, chiwerengero chapamwamba kwambiri m'miyezi isanu ndi umodzi. Akatswiri ambiri azachuma akuti zotsatira zamalonda mu Januware zikuwonetsa kuti chuma chachiwiri kukula padziko lonse lapansi chikucheperachepera, chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa kusowa kwa ntchito ku US komanso vuto la ngongole ku Eurozone.
Kukula kwachuma komwe China idawotcha kwacheperako mpaka kukula kwa 8.9 peresenti, otsika kwambiri pazaka ziwiri ndi theka. Bungwe la International Monetary Fund linaneneratu kukula kwa 8.2% ku China mu 2012, koma likuchenjeza kuti chiwerengerochi chikhoza kudulidwa theka ngati mavuto azachuma aku Europe azikula.
Chuma chomwe chidakula kale ku China mwina ndichachuma chenicheni cha "dziko lakale". Kutengera ndi zamalonda zamakolo, kukula kwakunyumba komwe kwachitika kwadzetsa ludzu lalikulu lakugulitsa zinthu kumayiko monga Australia. Pomwe ntchito zachuma zawonjezeka, makamaka kumayiko omwe kale anali ku UK ku Hong Kong, kuchuluka kwa China kwakhazikitsa malonda owoneka bwino padziko lonse lapansi omwe amafunikira kuti alowetse zida zopangira kunja. Zogulitsa kunja zatsika ndi 15% pachaka ziyenera kukhala zodetsa nkhawa kwambiri, makamaka ngati China imawerengedwa ngati gawo lalikulu pomwe chuma chambiri chimayenda bwino.
Komabe, ziwerengero zamalonda zitha kuwonedwa ngati zisonyezo zakutsalira, ngakhale malingaliro amenewo akuluakulu aku China adapita m'mawa kwambiri kutsimikizira kuti nthawi ya tchuthi komanso kalendala yoyendera mwezi zakhudza kwambiri ziwerengerozi. Ndalama zachuma, zogulitsa / zakufunira kulowetsa / kutumiza kunja ndizosangalatsa chifukwa chakuti IMF komanso gulu la 'mlongo' Banki Yadziko Lonse yanena kuti kukula kungachepe, kuyambira 8.3%, ngati vuto la Eurozone likupitilira kapena kukulirakulira. Komabe, nkhani ya Eurozone itha kukhala gawo limodzi chabe la nkhaniyi, kugwa kwakukulu kwa kugulitsa katundu kumatha kulengeza zochitika zowopsya kwambiri zachuma cha ku China, kufunikira kwakukulu kwa zopangira zitha kudzafika mwadzidzidzi ndipo kugunda kwadzidzidzi kwa Ma buffers atha kukhala atanenedweratu ngati tingasamale kuyang'anitsitsa mizere yakuda yazachuma komwe ambiri amawopa kupita.
Baltic Youma Index
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ndi nambala yomwe imaperekedwa tsiku lililonse ndi Baltic Exchange yaku London. Osangolekezera kumayiko aku Baltic Sea, mndandandawu umatsata mitengo yapadziko lonse lapansi yonyamula katundu wouma wambiri.
Mndandandawu umapereka "kuwunika kwa mtengo wosamutsira zopangira zazikulu panyanja. Pogwiritsa ntchito njira 26 zotumizira zomwe zimayesedwa pakapangidwe ka nthawi ndi maulendo, mlozerawo umakhudza Handymax, Panamax, ndi Capesize onyamula katundu wouma wonyamula zinthu zosiyanasiyana kuphatikiza malasha, miyala yachitsulo ndi tirigu. ”
Mmene Ntchito
Tsiku lililonse logwira ntchito, oyendetsa sitima zapadziko lonse lapansi amatumiza malingaliro awo amitengo yapamtunda yapamtunda yanjira zingapo ku Baltic Exchange. Misewuyi imayenera kukhala yoyimira, mwachitsanzo, yayikulu mokwanira voliyumu yofunika pamsika wonse.
Kuyesa kwamitunduyi kumalimbikitsidwanso palimodzi kuti apange BDI yonse komanso kukula kwa Supramax, Panamax, ndi ma Capesize indices. Zomwe zimayambitsa BDI m'mizere inayi yamayendedwe anyanja oyenda ouma:
BDI imakhala ndi kuwunika mayendedwe pamaziko a "USD yolipiridwa pa toni iliyonse yonyamulidwa" (mwachitsanzo, asanadulidwe mafuta, doko ndi zina zogulira ulendo) ndi "USD yolipidwa patsiku" (ie pambuyo poti ndalama zodalitsika zaperekedwa, zomwe nthawi zambiri zimatchedwa " Chikhazikitso cha nthawi chimodzimodzi mapindu ake ”). Mafuta (= "Bunkers") ndiye mtengo waukulu kwambiri wodalira kuyenda ndipo umayenda ndimtengo wamafuta wosakongola. Nthawi yomwe bunker imasinthasintha kwambiri, BDI idzasunthira zochulukirapo kuposa zomwe eni eni zombo amapeza.
Mndandandawo ungapezeke polembetsa kuchokera ku Baltic Exchange komanso kuchokera kuzidziwitso zazikulu zandalama ndi ntchito zankhani monga Thomson Reuters ndi Bloomberg LP.
Chifukwa Chomwe A Economists Ndi Otsatsa Msika Wamasheya Amawerenga
Mwachindunji, chiwerengerocho chimayesa kufunika konyamula katundu motsutsana ndi kupezeka kwa zonyamula zochuluka zouma. Kufunika konyamula kumasiyanasiyana ndi kuchuluka kwa katundu amene akugulitsidwa kapena kusamutsidwa m'misika yosiyanasiyana (zoperekera ndi kufunikira).
Sitima zonyamula katundu nthawi zambiri zimakhala zovuta komanso zopanda malire — zimatenga zaka ziwiri kuti apange sitima yatsopano, ndipo zombo zimakhala zotsika mtengo kwambiri kuposa momwe zimayendera ndege zomwe zimayimitsa ma jets osafunikira m'zipululu. Chifukwa chake, kuwonjezeka kwapakati pazofunikira kumatha kukankhira mndandandandawo mwachangu, ndipo kuchepa kwakanthawi kocheperako kumatha kuyambitsa chiwerengerocho kugwa mwachangu. Mwachitsanzo “ngati muli ndi zombo 100 zomwe zikupikisana nawo 99, zitsika, pomwe ngati muli ndi zombo 99 zomwe zikupikisana nawo 100, mitengo imakwera. Mwanjira ina, kusintha kwakung'onong'ono kwa zombo komanso momwe zinthu zingayendere zingasokoneze kuchuluka kwa zinthu….
Nkhani Ya Tepi
Pa Meyi 20, 2008, chiwerengerocho chidafika pamlingo waukulu kuyambira pomwe idayamba mu 1985, ndikufikira mfundo 11,793. Theka la chaka pambuyo pake, pa 5 Disembala 2008, chiwerengerocho chidatsika ndi 94%, kufika pamilingo 663, yotsika kwambiri kuyambira 1986; ngakhale pofika 4 February 2009 inali itapeza malo omwe adatayika pang'ono, kubwerera ku 1,316. Mitengo yotsikirayi idasunthira moyandikira ndalama zogwirira ntchito zombo, mafuta, ndi ogwira ntchito.
Mipikisano khumi New Low Idafika Pa Feb 3rd 2012
Mu 2009, chiwerengerocho chidatsika mpaka 4661, koma chidatsika pa 1043 mu February, 2011, atapitiliza kutumiza zombo zatsopano komanso kusefukira kwamadzi ku Australia. Ngakhale idabwereranso mpaka 2000 pa Okutobala 7, pofika pa 3 february 2012, chiwerengerocho chidapanga zaka makumi khumi ndi zisanu ndi zitatu zotsika 647 pazopitilira zombo zonyamula katundu ndikuchepetsa malamulowo achitsulo ndi malasha.
Ndondomekoyi pakadali pano ndi 60.01% kutsika chaka ndi 36.36% m'masabata asanu ndi limodzi oyamba a 2012. Mfundo yoti zaka khumi zatsopanozi zidakwaniritsidwa kumayambiriro kwa mwezi wa February iyenera kukhala imodzi mwazinthu zachuma zomwe zawululidwa chaka chino. Komabe, pomwe olemba ndemanga ambiri atolankhani amakhalabe osunthika pamsika waukulu zikuwonetsa kuti chida chamtengo wapatali ichi sichidzayang'aniridwa.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
bdiChina
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The Baltic Youma Index Ndipo Chinese Tengani
Feb 10 • Ndemanga za Msika • 11082 Views • 1 Comment pa The Baltic Dry Index Ndi Zolemba Zaku China
Baltic Dry Index Ndi Ziwerengero Zaku China Zowonetsa Nkhani Zaku China Zikufotokoza Nkhani Yomwe Akatswiri Ambiri Azachuma Samafuna Kuva
Ngati pangakhale index yodziwika bwino komanso yotchulidwa kwambiri yomwe idagwa zaka zopitilira 60% pachaka sikuti gulu lazachuma lingakhale lokhudzidwa kwambiri, atolankhani ambiri atha kukhala achinyengo pazomwe amachita. Mitu yayikuluyo imawonetsa zakumapeto kwa masiku. Kufuula, kwakuti tsoka losapeweka lomwe latsala pang'ono kuchitika, lingakhale logonthetsa ...
Palibe zikuluzikulu zazikuluzikulu zotchuka zomwe zagwa chaka ndi chaka Kukumbukira kwamoyo, mwina pangozi ya 2008-2009 kapena kukonza kwaposachedwa kotala chomaliza cha 2011. Chapafupi kwambiri zomwe tidakumana nazo pamavuto azachuma ku Eurozone anali / ndikusintha kwakusinthana kwa Atene, komwe kudagwa ndi circa 50% pachaka ndipo izi zidachitika ngakhale pakuwonjezeka kwa 30% kuyambira kutsika kwaposachedwa kwa Jan 10th. Koma ASE, ngakhale ikuyang'ana ku Athens, sichingatchulidwe ngati "cholozera chachikulu".
Bwanji ngati chiwonetsero chodziwika bwino chazachuma chomwe chimaganiziridwa chinali chatsika pafupifupi 60% pachaka, monga SPX kapena FTSE 100? Kusunthira pambali chikhulupiriro chilichonse chonena kuti misika yayikulu sinalinso njira yolunjika yazaumoyo wakale, chifukwa cha malingaliro a zirp, zopulumutsa, zopulumutsa, tarp ndi zochepetsera zochulukirapo zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale ziphuphu zabodza zomwe sizigwirizana kwenikweni ndi zachuma, ngati ziphuphu zazikulu zidavutikira kugwa koteroko, zonena zake zimakhala zodabwitsa.
Pali mndandanda umodzi womwe akatswiri azachuma, owonetsa misika komanso owunikira pamsika amayang'anitsitsa nyengo ndipo mwina, chifukwa misika yayikulu idasinthidwa ndikutulutsa maphukusi opulumutsa, ikuwonetseratu zowonekera pamisika yapadziko lonse lapansi momwe idakhalira pamiyeso yazachuma padziko lonse lapansi monga kupezeka ndi kufunikira, kutumiza ndi kutumiza kunja, imadziwika kuti Baltic Dry Index.
Ndi kwakanthawi komanso koyenera kutchula cholozera ichi malinga ndi ziwerengero zomwe zatulutsidwa m'mawa kuchokera ku China zokhudzana ndi zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja ndikulowetsa kunja; Zogulitsa ku China zidachepa mu Januware poyerekeza ndi nthawi yomweyi chaka chapitacho, zomwe zidadzetsa nkhawa kuti kufunikira kwakunja kwakunja kukuwononga chuma chomwe chimayendetsedwa kunja.
Ziwerengero zomwe zatulutsidwa Lachisanu ndi bungwe loyang'anira zikhalidwe zikuwonetsa kuti kutumizidwa kumayiko ena kwatsika ndi 15.3% mpaka $ 122.6 biliyoni, pomwe kutumizira kunja kudatsika ndi 0.5% mpaka $ 149.9 biliyoni. Ndi mbiri yoyipa kwambiri yamalonda kuyambira 2009. Zotsalira zamalonda zandale zaku China zidakwera mpaka $ 27.3 biliyoni mu Januware, chiwerengero chapamwamba kwambiri m'miyezi isanu ndi umodzi. Akatswiri ambiri azachuma akuti zotsatira zamalonda mu Januware zikuwonetsa kuti chuma chachiwiri kukula padziko lonse lapansi chikucheperachepera, chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa kusowa kwa ntchito ku US komanso vuto la ngongole ku Eurozone.
Kukula kwachuma komwe China idawotcha kwacheperako mpaka kukula kwa 8.9 peresenti, otsika kwambiri pazaka ziwiri ndi theka. Bungwe la International Monetary Fund linaneneratu kukula kwa 8.2% ku China mu 2012, koma likuchenjeza kuti chiwerengerochi chikhoza kudulidwa theka ngati mavuto azachuma aku Europe azikula.
Chuma chomwe chidakula kale ku China mwina ndichachuma chenicheni cha "dziko lakale". Kutengera ndi zamalonda zamakolo, kukula kwakunyumba komwe kwachitika kwadzetsa ludzu lalikulu lakugulitsa zinthu kumayiko monga Australia. Pomwe ntchito zachuma zawonjezeka, makamaka kumayiko omwe kale anali ku UK ku Hong Kong, kuchuluka kwa China kwakhazikitsa malonda owoneka bwino padziko lonse lapansi omwe amafunikira kuti alowetse zida zopangira kunja. Zogulitsa kunja zatsika ndi 15% pachaka ziyenera kukhala zodetsa nkhawa kwambiri, makamaka ngati China imawerengedwa ngati gawo lalikulu pomwe chuma chambiri chimayenda bwino.
Komabe, ziwerengero zamalonda zitha kuwonedwa ngati zisonyezo zakutsalira, ngakhale malingaliro amenewo akuluakulu aku China adapita m'mawa kwambiri kutsimikizira kuti nthawi ya tchuthi komanso kalendala yoyendera mwezi zakhudza kwambiri ziwerengerozi. Ndalama zachuma, zogulitsa / zakufunira kulowetsa / kutumiza kunja ndizosangalatsa chifukwa chakuti IMF komanso gulu la 'mlongo' Banki Yadziko Lonse yanena kuti kukula kungachepe, kuyambira 8.3%, ngati vuto la Eurozone likupitilira kapena kukulirakulira. Komabe, nkhani ya Eurozone itha kukhala gawo limodzi chabe la nkhaniyi, kugwa kwakukulu kwa kugulitsa katundu kumatha kulengeza zochitika zowopsya kwambiri zachuma cha ku China, kufunikira kwakukulu kwa zopangira zitha kudzafika mwadzidzidzi ndipo kugunda kwadzidzidzi kwa Ma buffers atha kukhala atanenedweratu ngati tingasamale kuyang'anitsitsa mizere yakuda yazachuma komwe ambiri amawopa kupita.
Baltic Youma Index
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ndi nambala yomwe imaperekedwa tsiku lililonse ndi Baltic Exchange yaku London. Osangolekezera kumayiko aku Baltic Sea, mndandandawu umatsata mitengo yapadziko lonse lapansi yonyamula katundu wouma wambiri.
Mndandandawu umapereka "kuwunika kwa mtengo wosamutsira zopangira zazikulu panyanja. Pogwiritsa ntchito njira 26 zotumizira zomwe zimayesedwa pakapangidwe ka nthawi ndi maulendo, mlozerawo umakhudza Handymax, Panamax, ndi Capesize onyamula katundu wouma wonyamula zinthu zosiyanasiyana kuphatikiza malasha, miyala yachitsulo ndi tirigu. ”
Mmene Ntchito
Tsiku lililonse logwira ntchito, oyendetsa sitima zapadziko lonse lapansi amatumiza malingaliro awo amitengo yapamtunda yapamtunda yanjira zingapo ku Baltic Exchange. Misewuyi imayenera kukhala yoyimira, mwachitsanzo, yayikulu mokwanira voliyumu yofunika pamsika wonse.
Kuyesa kwamitunduyi kumalimbikitsidwanso palimodzi kuti apange BDI yonse komanso kukula kwa Supramax, Panamax, ndi ma Capesize indices. Zomwe zimayambitsa BDI m'mizere inayi yamayendedwe anyanja oyenda ouma:
BDI imakhala ndi kuwunika mayendedwe pamaziko a "USD yolipiridwa pa toni iliyonse yonyamulidwa" (mwachitsanzo, asanadulidwe mafuta, doko ndi zina zogulira ulendo) ndi "USD yolipidwa patsiku" (ie pambuyo poti ndalama zodalitsika zaperekedwa, zomwe nthawi zambiri zimatchedwa " Chikhazikitso cha nthawi chimodzimodzi mapindu ake ”). Mafuta (= "Bunkers") ndiye mtengo waukulu kwambiri wodalira kuyenda ndipo umayenda ndimtengo wamafuta wosakongola. Nthawi yomwe bunker imasinthasintha kwambiri, BDI idzasunthira zochulukirapo kuposa zomwe eni eni zombo amapeza.
Mndandandawo ungapezeke polembetsa kuchokera ku Baltic Exchange komanso kuchokera kuzidziwitso zazikulu zandalama ndi ntchito zankhani monga Thomson Reuters ndi Bloomberg LP.
Chifukwa Chomwe A Economists Ndi Otsatsa Msika Wamasheya Amawerenga
Mwachindunji, chiwerengerocho chimayesa kufunika konyamula katundu motsutsana ndi kupezeka kwa zonyamula zochuluka zouma. Kufunika konyamula kumasiyanasiyana ndi kuchuluka kwa katundu amene akugulitsidwa kapena kusamutsidwa m'misika yosiyanasiyana (zoperekera ndi kufunikira).
Sitima zonyamula katundu nthawi zambiri zimakhala zovuta komanso zopanda malire — zimatenga zaka ziwiri kuti apange sitima yatsopano, ndipo zombo zimakhala zotsika mtengo kwambiri kuposa momwe zimayendera ndege zomwe zimayimitsa ma jets osafunikira m'zipululu. Chifukwa chake, kuwonjezeka kwapakati pazofunikira kumatha kukankhira mndandandandawo mwachangu, ndipo kuchepa kwakanthawi kocheperako kumatha kuyambitsa chiwerengerocho kugwa mwachangu. Mwachitsanzo “ngati muli ndi zombo 100 zomwe zikupikisana nawo 99, zitsika, pomwe ngati muli ndi zombo 99 zomwe zikupikisana nawo 100, mitengo imakwera. Mwanjira ina, kusintha kwakung'onong'ono kwa zombo komanso momwe zinthu zingayendere zingasokoneze kuchuluka kwa zinthu….
Nkhani Ya Tepi
Pa Meyi 20, 2008, chiwerengerocho chidafika pamlingo waukulu kuyambira pomwe idayamba mu 1985, ndikufikira mfundo 11,793. Theka la chaka pambuyo pake, pa 5 Disembala 2008, chiwerengerocho chidatsika ndi 94%, kufika pamilingo 663, yotsika kwambiri kuyambira 1986; ngakhale pofika 4 February 2009 inali itapeza malo omwe adatayika pang'ono, kubwerera ku 1,316. Mitengo yotsikirayi idasunthira moyandikira ndalama zogwirira ntchito zombo, mafuta, ndi ogwira ntchito.
Mipikisano khumi New Low Idafika Pa Feb 3rd 2012
Mu 2009, chiwerengerocho chidatsika mpaka 4661, koma chidatsika pa 1043 mu February, 2011, atapitiliza kutumiza zombo zatsopano komanso kusefukira kwamadzi ku Australia. Ngakhale idabwereranso mpaka 2000 pa Okutobala 7, pofika pa 3 february 2012, chiwerengerocho chidapanga zaka makumi khumi ndi zisanu ndi zitatu zotsika 647 pazopitilira zombo zonyamula katundu ndikuchepetsa malamulowo achitsulo ndi malasha.
Ndondomekoyi pakadali pano ndi 60.01% kutsika chaka ndi 36.36% m'masabata asanu ndi limodzi oyamba a 2012. Mfundo yoti zaka khumi zatsopanozi zidakwaniritsidwa kumayambiriro kwa mwezi wa February iyenera kukhala imodzi mwazinthu zachuma zomwe zawululidwa chaka chino. Komabe, pomwe olemba ndemanga ambiri atolankhani amakhalabe osunthika pamsika waukulu zikuwonetsa kuti chida chamtengo wapatali ichi sichidzayang'aniridwa.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
bdiChina
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