MORNING ROLL CALL

Jul 10 • Morning Roll Call • 55 Views • No Comments

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Canada’s expected rate rise, various testimonies by Janet Yellen and inflation data dominate this week’s news agenda

Early Monday morning from China we’ll get sight of the most current consumer price inflation data as it’s reported amongst a raft of data on money supply. The consensus is that the figure will come in at 1.6% YoY, with producer inflation at 5.5%, both data points suggesting that China (one of the engines of global consumer growth provision), has inflation under control. Japan’s central bank chief Kuroda will speak at a branch managers’ meeting, shortly after Japan’s latest bankruptcy figures and the Eco watchers’ surveys are published, all expected to show little change.

Euro data for the week begins with Germany’s balance of payments; one of the few major economies that produces a surplus, the metric is forecast to come in at €18.7b for May. Imports and exports for Germany in May, are predicted to show 0.3% growth. The Eurozone consumer confidence Sentix index is expected to come in at 28.1, down from 28.4.

From the USA the labour market conditions index is forecast to reveal a similar reading to the 2.3 metric revealed for May. Consumer credit in the USA is forecast to have risen significantly to $13.35b for June, from the $8.197b recorded in May.

Tuesday witnesses Australian data including business confidence and home loans published. A USA fed official, Mr. Williams, will also be speaking in Sydney. From Japan the YoY machine orders data for June will be released, expected to come in similar to the last reading, showing circa 24.5% growth.

From North America Canada’s latest housing starts information will be published, expected to come in at 201.5k for June, up from 194.7k in May. From the USA the NFIB small business confidence index is published, it’s forecast to show little change. The JOLTS job openings will be keenly watched, given last week’s poor unemployment and employment data until the NFP data revised optimism. Wholesale trade sales and inventory data for the U.S. will be revealed and Fed official Brainard will speak in New York, on the subject of monetary policy.

Wednesday’s medium to high impact calendar events begins with Australia consumer confidence; excepted to remain similar to June’s reading of -1.8%, and the Japan tertiary industry index, expected to go negative at -0.6% for May. The UK’s economy comes into focus with various employment, unemployment and earnings data published. Earnings in the U.K. are forecast to come in at 1.8% growth YoY, the unemployment figure is forecast to come in at 4.6%, whilst jobs created over Q2 2017 are forecast to show an improvement to 120k, from 109k. Eurozone industrial production YoY is predicted to come in at 3.5% for May, up from 1.5%.

North American data begins with mortgage approvals in the USA and Janet Yellen’s testimony in front of congress at 12:30, then at 14:00 hours Mrs Yellen will appear before the U.S House panel. Focus then switches to Canada as the central bank announces its latest interest rate decision, the forecast is for the rate to rise to 0.75%, from 0.5%. Canada will also reveal details of their latest monetary policy committee meeting and later the central bank’s Poloz and Wilkins will hold a joint press conference. Various USA energy inventories are published, crude oil will be closely monitored. The USA then ends the country’s significant calendar events with the publication of the beige book.

Thursday morning begins with various Chinese export, import and trade balance data, the balance is forecast to come in at $43b for June. Consumer inflation expectations for Australia in June are forecast to remain constant at 3.6%. Focus then turns to Europe with the release of German CPI YoY, expected to come in at 1.6%. From the U.K. we’ll see the publication of the BoE credit and liability bank conditions survey.

Canada’s new housing price index will be published, the YoY figure is expected to remain constant at 3.9%. From the USA we’ll receive several PPI readings and then the weekly update on jobless claims and the continuing claims total. Janet Yellen will testify before the senate banking committee. The day ends with the monthly budget statement for the USA, predicted to register a -$16b deficit for June.

Friday begins with a series of low impact data from Japan concerning industrial production. Focus then turns to the Eurozone with new car registrations and the trade balance, which is forecast to come in at €20.2b for May.

From the USA we’ll learn the latest YoY CPI figure for June, forecast to come in at 1.7%. Earnings YoY are forecast to remain unchanged at 0.6%, with advanced retail sales up to 0.2% growth, after registering a fall in last month’s release. Industrial production for the USA is predicted to show a rise for June to 0.3%. A series of university of Michigan dats is published with the key reading; confidence, expected to come in at 95, down slightly. U.S. inventories are expected to rise by 0.3% in May.

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