MORNING ROLL CALL

May 15 • Morning Roll Call • 212 Views • No Comments

Sterling may be in the spotlight when the latest inflation U.K. figures are published, Eurozone GDP figures will be carefully monitored, as will Japan’s GDP figure

Welcome to our brief weekly ‘heads up’, alerting our clients to the mostbetween-the-lines1prominent, economic, calendar events, scheduled for release over the coming week. It’s a relatively quiet week this week, however, as always, let’s be careful out there. As we’ve learned over recent months; it only takes one errant tweet from the current president of the USA to move our markets. Similarly, an unannounced, sudden OPEC announcement, could effect the price of oil and therefore one of the major commodity currencies popular with traders, such as the Canadian dollar.

Monday sees the release of certain Chinese economic data; mainly retail sales and industrial production figures. YoY retail sales are predicted to fall to 10.8% from 10.9%, whilst production is forecast to fall from 7.6%, to 7.0% YoY. From Japan we receive machine tool orders, expected to fall from the 22.8% annual increase recorded in March.

Existing home sales numbers are released from Canada, the previous month’s rise was 1.1%, the expectation is for little change. Other North American home market data concerns the USA, NAHB data, with the index forecast to remain unchanged, at 68 for April. The Empire manufacturing index for the USA is also published, forecast to come in at 7.5 for May, ahead of 5.2 in April.

On Tuesday the Australian central bank the RBA publishes its May rate meeting minutes, explaining their decision for maintaining the current interest rate and policy. Thereafter, the focus turns to the Eurozone; Italian GDP is forecast to fall from 1.0%, to 0.8% YoY. The UK’s economy will then be scrutinised as firstly the CPI data is published, with an expectation that a rise from 2.3% to 2.6% will be registered. There’s also a raft of other low impact U.K. economic data published, for example; producer price input, lastly coming in at 17.9%, expected to fall to 17%, due to the rise of sterling versus its major peers over recent months.

ZEW surveys for Germany and the Eurozone are published on Tuesday, the current situation index for Germany is forecast to rise, to from 80.1 to 82, whilst the economic sentiment index is predicted to rise, from 19.5 to 22. Eurozone GDP is forecast to remain unchanged, at 1.7% YoY.

The USA publishes its housing starts data on Tuesday, expected to bounce back from -6.8% recorded in March, to register a positive reading of 3.7% in April. Industrial production in the USA is forecast to slip to 0.4% growth in April, from 0.5% in March. Manufacturing production for the USA in April is predicted to rise to 0.3%, from the -0.4% fall recorded in March.

Wednesday’s medium to high impact news event begins with the UK’s claimant count; expected to remain constant at 4.7%. Earnings are forecast to fall to a 2.1% rise YoY. Only 21k extra jobs are predicted to have been created, during the first quarter of the year in the UK.

Eurozone data reported on Wednesday includes CPI, forecast to come in annually at 1.9% for April, a rise from 1.4% previously. Construction output rose annually by 7.1% in March, analysts are expecting a figure consistent with this previous reading.

From the USA mortgage applications rose steeply last week by 2.4%, analysts will be expecting a similar pattern, in order to support theories that the USA housing market is in good health. Various USA energy inventory data is published on Wednesday, oil and gasoline stockpiles in particular. The USA Fed will also release a publication concerning household credit and debt levels.

Japan publishes a range of data releases late on Wednesday evening, the most prominent of which are the amount of housing loans granted and GDP data. Annual GDP is predicted to rise to 1.8% YoY.

Thursday’s high impact data news begins with Australia’s employment change and unemployment rate. Employment is forecast to have risen by only 5k in April, with unemployment forecast to come in at 5.9%. The participation rate is predicted to come in at 64.7%.

In the U.K. retail sales are forecast to register at 2.6% YoY, and despite a fall of -1.5% in March, the prediction is for a rise of 1% in April. Europe’s key economic calendar event involves Mario Draghi, the president of the ECB, giving a talk in Tel Aviv. Two other prominent ECB members will give speeches in Berlin and Luxembourg.

From the USA we receive the weekly jobless claimant count, predicted at 240k from the 236k recorded previously in the previous week. The Philly fed data is forecast to come in at 18.5, falling from the 22 reading in April.

On Friday we receive the latest CPI data for Germany, scheduled to come in at 3.2% YoY. ECB members will be speaking at a conference in Brussels. Eurozone confidence is predicted to improve to a reading of -3, from -3.6% in March. Later in the day Canada publishes several key data reports, most notably; YoY CPI for April predicted to reveal a rise from 1.6% to 1.7%, and retail sales; expected to fall back from a -0.6% fall in March, to a 0.3% rise in April.

Monday, 15 May
00:01 – UK Rightmove house price index
03:00 – China industrial production
07:00 – Japan preliminary machine tool orders
08:15 – Switzerland PPI inflation
13:30 – US Empire State manufacturing index

Tuesday, 16 May
02:30 – Australia monetary policy meeting minutes
07:45 – French final CPI
09:00 – Italy preliminary Q1 GDP
09:30 – UK CPI, PPI and RPI inflation
10:00 – Eurozone flash Q1 GDP, German ZEW economic sentiment
13:30 – US building permits, housing starts
14:15 – US capacity utilisation rate, industrial production
23:45 – New Zealand PPI

Wednesday, 17 May
00:50 – Japan core machinery orders
09:30 – UK unemployment rate, claimant count change, average earnings
10:00 – Eurozone final CPI
13:30 – Canada manufacturing sales
15:30 – US crude oil inventories

Thursday, 18 May
00:50 – Japan preliminary Q1 GDP
02:30 – Australia unemployment rate, employment change
09:30 – UK retail sales
13:30 – US weekly unemployment claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index
15:30 – US natural gas storage

Friday, 19 May
07:00 – Germany PPI
13:30 – Canada CPI inflation, retail sales

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