He aha ka volatility, pehea e hiki ai iā ʻoe ke hoʻoponopono i kāu hoʻolālā kālepa iā ia a pehea e hopena ai i kāu hopena hopena kālepa?

ʻAp 24 • Nā ʻatikala kālepa Forex, Nā manaʻo ʻōlelo mākeke • 3374 Nānā • Comments Off ma ke aha ka volatility, pehea e hiki ai iā ʻoe ke hoʻoponopono i kāu hoʻolālā kālepa iā ia a pehea e hopena ai i kāu hopena hopena kālepa?

ʻAʻohe mea kahaha i ka hapanui o nā mea kālepa FX liʻiliʻi, ʻaʻole e ʻike i ka hopena o ka volatility i kā lākou hopena kālepa. ʻO ke kumuhana, ma ke ʻano he hanana a me ka hopena pololei e hiki ai iā ia ma kāu laina lalo, ʻaʻole ia e kamaʻilio piha ʻia i nā ʻatikala, a i ʻole nā ​​kūkā kalepa. ʻO ka manawa manawa wale nō, kuhikuhi manawa pōkole, i hana ʻia. He mea nānā nui ia, e pili ana i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo (ma ke ʻano he kumuhana), ʻo ia kekahi o nā kumu i kuhi hewa ʻole ʻia a nānā ʻole ʻia, e pili ana i ke kālepa ʻana i nā mākeke āpau, ʻaʻole ʻo FX wale nō.

ʻO ka wehewehe ʻana o ka volatility hiki ke lilo i "ana helu helu o ka mahele o nā hoʻihoʻi no kekahi palekana i hāʻawi ʻia, a i ʻole ka papa kuhikuhi mākeke" Ma nā ʻōlelo laulā; ʻo ke kiʻekiʻe o ka volatility i kēlā me kēia manawa, ʻoi aku ka palekana o ka palekana. Hiki ke ana ʻia ka volatility ma o ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā ana hoʻohālike maʻamau, a i ʻole ka ʻokoʻa ma waena o nā hoʻihoʻi mai ka palekana like, a i ʻole ka papa kuhikuhi mākeke. Hoʻohui pinepine ʻia ka volatility kiʻekiʻe me nā ʻūlū nui, i hiki ke hana i kēlā me kēia ʻaoʻao. ʻO kahi laʻana, inā piʻi a hāʻule paha kahi pālua FX ma mua o hoʻokahi pākēneka i loko o nā kau o ka lā, hiki ke hoʻonohonoho ʻia ma ke ʻano he mākeke “maʻalahi”.

ʻO ka volatility mākeke holoʻokoʻa no nā mākeke kaulike ʻo USA, hiki ke ʻike ʻia e ke ala o ka mea i kapa ʻia ʻo “the Volatility Index”. Ua haku ʻia ka VIX e ka Chicago Board Pilihan Exchange, hoʻohana ʻia ia i mea e ana ai i ka lā kanakolu e manaʻo ʻia ana ka loli o ka mākeke kūʻai a US a loaʻa ia mai nā kumukūʻai ʻōlelo manawa maoli o ka SPX 500, kāhea a hoʻokau i nā koho. ʻO ka VIX kahi ana maʻalahi o nā pili o ka wā e hiki mai ana a nā mea hoʻopukapuka a me nā mea kālepa e hana nei, ma ke kuhikuhi o nā mākeke, a i ʻole nā ​​palekana pilikino. ʻO ka heluhelu kiʻekiʻe ʻana ma ka VIX e hōʻike ana i kahi mākeke kūpilikiʻi.

ʻAʻole kekahi o nā hōʻailona ʻenehana i makemake nui ʻia, i loaʻa ma nā paepae e like me MetaTrader MT4, i hana kikoʻī ʻia me ke kumuhana o ka volatility i ka noʻonoʻo. ʻO Bollinger Bands, ʻO ka Index Channel Commodity a me ka Average True Range, he hōʻailona ʻenehana i hiki ke hōʻike ʻenehana i nā loli i ka volatility, akā ʻaʻohe mea i hana kikoʻī ʻia e hana i kahi metric no ka volatility. Ua hana ʻia ka RVI (Relative Volatility Index) e hōʻike i ke kuhikuhi i hoʻololi ai ka volatility o ke kumukūʻai. Eia nō naʻe, ʻaʻole i loaʻa ākea a ʻo ka hiʻohiʻona nui o ka RVI e hōʻoia wale ia i nā hōʻailona ʻōuli oscillating ʻē aʻe (RSI, MA ,D, Stochastic a me nā mea ʻē aʻe) me ka hana ʻole hou ʻia iā lākou. Aia kekahi mau hāmeʻa ponoʻī i hāʻawi ʻia e kekahi mau poloka, hiki ke hōʻike i nā loli i ka volatility, ʻaʻole loaʻa kēia mau mea ma ke ʻano he hōʻailona, ​​kū hoʻokahi lākou, nā mea hana makemakika.

ʻO ka nele o ka volatility (ma ke ʻano he hanana) e pili ana iā FX, ua hōʻike ʻia i kēia manawa e ka hāʻule ʻana i nā hui paʻa, pili pono i ka hāʻule nui o ka hana kālepa i nā pālua e like me GBP / USD. ʻO ka hāʻule ʻana o ka hana a me ka neʻe ʻana o ka pālua a GBP, pili pili pono ia i ka lā nui Easter bank a me ka wā hoʻomaha o ka Parliamentary UK. Ua pani ʻia kekahi mau mākeke ʻo FX i ka wā hoʻomaha o ka panakō ma ka Pōʻakahi a me Pōʻalima, ʻoiai ʻo nā MPs o UK he ʻelua pule hoʻomaha. I loko o ko lākou wā hoʻomaha, ua kāpae nui ʻia ke kumuhana o Brexit mai nā poʻo nui o ka pāpāho, e like me nā kumu kumu e pili ana i ke kumukūʻai o ka sterling, me kāna mau hoa.

I ka wā hoʻomaha, ka hana kumukūʻai whipsawing, i hōʻike pinepine ʻia i loko o nā mahina i hala iho nei, i ka wā i kū ai ka UK i nā ʻaoʻao pali like ʻole e pili ana iā Brexit, ʻaʻole i ʻike hou ʻia ma nā papa manawa like ʻole. No ka hapa nui, he nui nā pālua ʻoi loa i kālepa aku i ka ʻaoʻao i loko o nā pule i ʻike ʻole ʻia ai nā MPs o UK. ʻAno maʻalahi; ua hāʻule nui ke kālepa speculative i ka sterling, no ka mea ʻo Brexit ma ke ʻano he kumuhana, ua hina i lalo mai ka radar. Ua manaʻo ʻia nā manaʻo ʻokoʻa e pili ana i ka volatility ma sterling he 50% ma lalo o nā pae hoʻomaha mua o ka Parliamentary. Ua kālepa aku nā pālua e like me EUR / GBP a me GBP / USD i ka pilipaʻa, ka hapa nui o nā ʻaoʻao, nā pae, no kahi manawa o ʻelua pule. Akā i ka manawa i hoʻi mai nā MPs o UK i kā lākou keʻena ma Westminster, ua hoʻi ʻo Brexit ma ka papa kuhikuhi o ka pāpāho mainstream financial.

Hoʻonui koke ʻia ka speculate o ka sterling a whipsawed loa ke kumukūʻai i kahi ākea, e oscillating ana ma waena o nā kūlana bullish a me bearish, i ka hopena i hala ma S3, i ka Pōʻalua ʻApelila 23rd, ʻoiai ua haki ka nūhou e pili ana i ka nele o ka holomua i nā kamaʻilio ma waena o nā ʻaoʻao politika nui ʻelua o UK. ʻOiai, ʻoiai he hoʻi i ka lā Groundhog i kū ma mua o ka hoʻomaha, ka volatility nui, ka hana a me nā manawa kūpono i hoʻi i ka radar. He mea nui ia no nā mea kalepa FX e ʻike ʻole i ka volatility a me ke kumu e hoʻonui ai ia, akā, i ka wā e hiki ai. Hiki ke hoʻonui nui aʻe ma muli o kahi hanana nūhou haʻihaʻi, kahi hanana politika kūloko, a i ʻole ma muli o kahi kūlana hoʻomau e hoʻololi nui. ʻO ke kumu, he hanana ia e pono ai ka nānā hou a me ka mahalo mai nā mea kalepa FX kūʻai aku, ma mua o ka loaʻa maʻamau. 

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