ʻO ke au nalo e ʻike nei i lalo i kaʻu hoʻolālā, a i ʻole nā ​​hopena maikaʻi ʻole ma o nā hanana 'outlier'?

ʻAp 18 • Ma waena o nā laina • 13844 Nānā • 1 Comment on ʻO ka manawa nalo e ʻike nei i lalo i kaʻu hoʻolālā, a i ʻole nā ​​hopena maikaʻi ʻole ma o nā hanana 'outlier'?

shutterstock_99173453ʻO ka laki kahi huaʻōlelo hakakā nui a like me nā phenomena hakakā i ke kālepa ʻana. Ma hope o ka hala ʻana o nā mahina a i nā manawa he nui i mau makahiki e hana i kahi hoʻolālā kālepa lanakila, a laila e hāʻawi iā ia i kā mākou papahana kālepa hōʻoiaʻiʻo, paʻakikī loa i kekahi o mākou e ʻae maoli i kahi mea nui i loko o kā mākou wā kālepa lōʻihi e iho nei. i nā hanana maʻalahi o ka laki.

No kaʻae ʻana aia mākou i ke aloha o ka mākeke a hiki ʻole i kekahi o mākou ke wānana, me ke ʻano o ka maopopo mau, ʻo ka mea a ka mākeke e hana ai ma hope he manaʻo paʻakikī paʻakikī ia no ka hapanui o mākou e ʻike. He paʻakikī e ʻae i ka manaʻo o ka hapa nui o kā mākou kālepa e lilo i losers i mea e loaʻa mau ai ka waiwai. ʻO kēia mau manaʻo ʻelua, e like me kā mākou i ʻōlelo ai i kēia kolamu ma mua, kūlike ʻole i ke ʻano o ka 'wire' ʻana e hoʻokokoke i nā hoʻokolohua a me nā hoʻāʻo a kā mākou ʻoihana e koi ai iā mākou e alo i kēlā me kēia lā a me kēlā me kēia pule.

Ma hope o ko mākou hala ʻana i mau mahina (a i ʻole mau makahiki) e hana i kā mākou kūleʻa kālepa kūleʻa a hoʻolilo i ka manawa kaulike kaulike o ka manawa e hoʻomohala i ka mākau ponoʻī e pili i kā mākou papa kūʻai kālepa, hiki ke hōʻoia he hōʻeha loa ia i kā mākou kālepa ʻana Hoʻomaka e holomua ka hoʻolālā a hiki mākou i, a i ʻole ke hoʻomaka nei e hoʻoweliweli i nā pae drawdown a mākou i hoʻokomo ai i kā mākou papahana kālepa. Akā i ka manawa hea mākou e haʻalele ai i kā mākou papahana a me kahi hoʻolālā he ʻōlelo paʻakikī e kū i mua.

Pehea mākou e hoʻi ai i kahi ala hoʻi ʻole, i hiki ai ke kālailai hou i kā mākou papahana, ma mua o ka huki ʻana iā ia a haʻalele paha iā ia, ʻo ia kekahi o nā hoʻokolohua nui a mākou e alo ai ma ke ʻano he poʻe kālepa a ma nā ʻano he nui e wehewehe ʻia kēia 'hoʻāʻo o ke ola kālepa' iā mākou ma ke ʻano he poʻe kālepa. A i ke kālailai hou ʻana i kā mākou papahana kālepa hiki iā mākou ke hoʻomaka e wehe inā ʻaʻole i loaʻa kahi laki i kā mākou pohō i hala iho nei. Akā ma hea mākou e nānā ai i nā hōʻailona i kā mākou moʻolelo kālepa o kēia wā he hapa nui kā ka laki maikaʻi ʻole i kā mākou kālepa ʻana a ʻaʻohe mea hewa i kā mākou hana a me ka hoʻolālā kālepa holoʻokoʻa.

Nā mea kūwaho *, he aha lākou i ke ʻano o ke kālepa ʻana a me kahi e nānā ai i nā hōʻailona o lākou

E like me ka hoʻopau ʻana o ka poʻe heluhelu maʻamau o kā mākou kolamu, hoʻolaha mākou i kahi ʻatikala i kēlā me kēia pule me ke poʻo inoa ʻo "ʻo ia nō anei ke ʻano o kou hoa aloha?" a mākou e kālailai ai i ke kāʻei kua e hoʻoholo ai i nā hoʻopuka hopena kiʻekiʻe o ka hebedoma i kēia manawa a me nā hoʻoholo kulekele. Pālua ʻia me kēia a hoʻopili mākou i kahi ʻano maʻamau o ka loiloi loea e hoʻohana nei i nā mea i hoʻohana pinepine ʻia a kuhikuhi ʻia i nā mea kuhikuhi. ʻO ka mea i hoʻomaopopo ʻia i kēia manawa ka hopena o ka mea a mākou e kapa ai i nā poʻe o waho a me ka hopena a lākou e hana nei ma nā mākeke a mākou e kālepa ai.

ʻO ka mea i ʻoi aku ka nani o ka nānā aku i nā pilikia ma Ukraine, i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o nā haunaele ma luna o ka moku ʻo Crimea i kūʻai aku ai nā mākeke, ʻo ia hoʻi ma nā helu kaulike o ʻEulopa a laila ka euro. Ke emi nei nā pilikia ua hoʻomaka nā mākeke i kahi ʻano hou. A laila ua kānalua mākou i (i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka wā loaʻa ma USA) ʻo ka hapa nui o nā ʻoihana ʻenehana i ʻōlelo ʻia ma NASDAQ i kūpono i nā loiloi nui a me kā lākou loaʻa kālā a lākou e hōʻike nei. A laila ua ʻike mākou i kahi ola hou, akā i nā lā ʻelua i hala aku nei ua kū hou ka makaʻu o Ukraine ma ke ʻano he hakakā kaua ma waena o nā ʻaoʻao aloha Lūkia ma nā kūlanakauhale he nui a me nā luna i ke aupuni hou o Ukraine. ua hōʻea i kahi hopena kolohe.

Ke nānā nei i kēia mau pilikia hou i kahi kaʻawale, a i ʻole he puʻupuʻu, ʻike pinepine nā mea kalepa iā lākou iho i kekahi manawa, ke hilinaʻi nei inā ʻaʻole paha he kālepa kālepa a mea kūʻai aku paha lākou i ka lā, ma ka ʻaoʻao hewa o ka mākeke e neʻe nei ma o ka hewa ʻole. kā lākou ponoʻī ma mua o ka pili ʻana i kā lākou hoʻolālā. ʻO ka papa inoa pololei a mākou i hāʻawi ai no ka hana i hala aku nei he wahi hiki ʻole ia no nā mea kālepa he nui e kālepa aku ai i nā pule i hala iho nei, no nā mea kālepa piʻo a ʻo ia ma mua o ka hoʻomaka ʻana e hoʻohui i nā mea āpau āpau e like me nā hoʻoholo kumu haʻahaʻa, ka hana ʻole a nā helu helu ʻikepili hoʻokele waiwai ʻē aʻe. Me he mea lā ʻaʻole lawa ka maikaʻi o kā mākou ʻoihana pono mākou e paio me kahi ʻano paʻakikī paʻakikī o nā pilikia kumumanaʻo i nā pule i hala iho nei, kahaha iki i ka nui o mākou e nalowale i kahi manawa kūlohelohe e waiho ana iā mākou e kānalua nei i kā mākou hana holoʻokoʻa a me ka hoʻolālā kālepa.

ʻAʻole hiki ke wānana i ka wā e kū mai ai nā mea hoʻopuka helu a paʻakikī like ia e ʻike aia paha mākou i ka laina ahi o kahi hanana i waho ke hana ʻia e like me ka nui o nā mea i waho o kā mākou ʻoihana ʻaʻole nā ​​statistic ma waho o nā statistic a me nā makemakika i hiki, i ka nānā hou ʻana, kuhikuhi. Eia kekahi, ʻaʻole hiki iā mākou ke kālepa i ka wā i hala i ʻike ʻia e kā mākou poʻe helu helu a me nā makemakika.

Akā ʻo ka mea hiki iā mākou ke hana, ke ulu nei kā mākou ʻike, hoʻoponopono i kā mākou 'antennae kālepa' e makaʻala i ka wā a mākou i waenakonu o ka poʻe maelstrom hiki i waho. Loaʻa iā mākou ʻelua mau koho maʻalahi; kālepa aku ai ʻole kālepa…

Kūleʻa paha mākou ma o ka ʻino ka mea o waho, a i ʻole ka hunker i lalo a me ke kaumaha wale e hōʻike iā mākou i ka hoʻoholo pololei. Eia nō naʻe, ʻoiai he mea maʻamau ka nīnau ʻana i kāu hana a me kāu hoʻolālā i ka wā o waho o ka hanana me ka ʻole o ka kānalua he manawa hewa ia e hoʻololi ai a kūʻoki paha i kahi hana i hōʻike mua ʻia. E hiki mai ka manawa no ka noʻonoʻo ʻana ke maopopo pono iā mākou nā ʻano kālepa 'maʻamau', a i ʻole maʻamau e like me ka mea e hiki ai iā mākou ke kali i ka honua ikaika o ke kālepa ʻana iā FX, nā index, a me nā huahana, ua hoʻi hou i kā mākou wahi kūʻai.

* Ka wehewehe ʻana o waho

I nā helu helu, ʻo kahi outlier kahi kiko nānā i mamao loa ia mai nā nānā ʻē aʻe. [1] Hiki paha i kahi outlier ma muli o ka loli i ke ana a i ʻole hōʻike paha i kahi hemahema hoʻokolohua; kāpae ʻia ka hope i kekahi manawa mai ka ʻikepili. [2]

Hiki i nā poʻe waho ke kūloko i kekahi mahele, akā ke hōʻike pinepine nei lākou i kekahi o ka hewa o ke ana ʻana a i ʻole ka hāʻawi ʻana o ka heluna kanaka i ka huelo kaumaha. I ka hihia mua e makemake kekahi e hoʻolei iā lākou a hoʻohana i nā helu helu i ikaika i ka poʻe o waho, ʻoiai i ka hihia hope e hōʻike lākou he kiʻekiʻe kurtosis ka puʻuwai a e akahele loa kekahi i ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā pono hana a i ʻole nā ​​intuitions e lawe i kahi mahele maʻamau. ʻO kahi kumu pinepine o ka poʻe waho ka huikau o nā mahele ʻelua, a he ʻelua mau sub-populasyon ʻokoʻa paha, a i ʻole kuhikuhi ʻia ka 'hoʻokolokolo kūpono' me ka 'ana hewa'; Hoʻohālikelike ʻia kēia e kahi hoʻohālike hui.

I nā hapanui o nā ʻikepili, nui aku kekahi mau kikoʻikepili mai ka manaʻo hoʻohālikelike ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia he kūpono. Hiki i kēia ma muli o ka hewa ʻōnaehana āpau a i ʻole nā ​​hemahema i ke kumumanaʻo i hoʻokumu i kahi ʻohana o ka hāʻawi likelike ʻana, a i ʻole he mamao paha kekahi o nā mea i ʻike ʻia mai ke kikowaena o ka ʻike. No laila hiki i nā helu ʻoi aku ke hōʻike i nā ʻikepili hewa, nā hana hewa, a i ʻole nā ​​wahi i kūpono ʻole ai kekahi kumumanaʻo. Eia nō naʻe, i nā laʻana nui, e manaʻo ʻia kahi liʻiliʻi o ka poʻe kūwaho (ʻaʻole ma muli o kekahi kūlana anomalos).

ʻO ka poʻe o waho, ʻo ia ka nānā nui loa ʻana, hiki ke hoʻopili i ka laʻana a i ʻole ka laʻana liʻiliʻi, a i ʻole ʻelua, e hilinaʻi ana inā kiʻekiʻe a haʻahaʻa paha lākou. Eia nō naʻe, ʻaʻole ʻoi aku ka lōʻihi o ka laʻana a me ka liʻiliʻi o ka laʻana no ka mea ʻaʻole mamao loa lākou mai nā nānā ʻē aʻe.   
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