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	<title>FXCC Forex Trading Blog &#187; Market Commentaries</title>
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		<title>Did Draghi Revive the EUR/GRP</title>
		<link>http://blog.fxcc.com/did-draghi-revive-the-eurgrp/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=did-draghi-revive-the-eurgrp</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Jul 2012 12:35:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>FXCC Blog</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.fxcc.com/?p=5457</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yesterday, the intraday price range of EUR/GBP was remarkably small, given the sharp swings in other euro...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday, the intraday price range of EUR/GBP was remarkably small, given the sharp swings in other euro currency cross rates. In line with the price trend of late, sterling remained well bid yesterday morning and the pair reversed a big part of the post-Nowotny gains early in the session. The pair spiked also higher from the 0.7815 area to the 0.7860 area on the headlines from Mr. Draghi.</p>
<p>However, this rebound halted very soon. Later in the session, Cable joined the risk rally that was seen in other markets. EUR/USD hardly succeeded to outperform cable, even as the comments from Draghi were seen as a potential U-turn in the management of the EMU debt crisis. EUR/USD settled in a sideways consolidation pattern. The pair closed the session at 0.7830, even a few ticks&#8217; lowers from Wednesdayís close a 0.7844.</p>
<p>Do not expect much action for the Great British Pound with the 2012 Olympics starting today in London, all eyes and ears will be on another type of gold.</p>
<p>Today, there are no important eco data on the calendar in the UK. So, EUR/GBP trading will be driven by global market sentiment and by technical considerations. Yesterday&#8217;s price action was a clear illustration of underlying sterling strength. However, as long as the commitment of ECBís Draghi is not watered down, we see this as short-term positive for the euro overall. This should also provide downside protection for the EUR/GBP cross rate. Of late we amended our ST bias in this cross rate from negative to neutral and we now look out whether a correction might be in store. Sustained trading beyond 0.7950 (previous range bottom) would improve the short term picture in this cross rate.<br />
&nbsp;</p>
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<p>&nbsp;<br />
From a technical point of view, the EUR/GBP cross rate was captured in a consolidation pattern following a longstanding sell-off that started in February and ended mid-May when the pair set a correction low at 0.7950. From there, a rebound/short squeeze kicked in. However, the move had no strong legs and finally, EUR/GBP dropped below the 0.7950 range bottom. This break opened the way to the next high profile support, in the 0.77 area (Oct 2010 lows). Last week, the decline slowed a bit, but the trend remained clearly intact. On Monday there was a first setback, but it didnít change the global picture. The 0.77 area is still an obvious LT target on the charts. However, this weekís rebound might mark a short term reversal signal.</p>
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		<title>Equities Market Review</title>
		<link>http://blog.fxcc.com/equities-market-review/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=equities-market-review</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Jul 2012 07:22:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>FXCC Blog</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.fxcc.com/?p=4639</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Following the scheme of the prior weeks, the week was a mixed bag for the world markets...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Following the scheme of the prior weeks, the week was a mixed bag for the world markets on our weekly watch list. It saw half posted gains, half losses and an epitome of optimism.</p>
<p>Starting with the American markets, stocks rose on a weekly basis as US companies reported better than expected results. However, it couldn&#8217;t keep the momentum as Microsoft reported its first quarterly loss. Five-year Treasury note yields fell to a record low as data showed the US economic growth slowing and investor concern Europe&#8217;s debt crisis is worsening led to increased demand for the safest assets. US government debt gained for a fourth consecutive week as yields on Spain&#8217;s bonds climbed.</p>
<p>The NASDAQ gained 0.58%, followed by S&amp;P 500 (0.44%) and Dow gained 0.35% for the week.<br />
On the European side, markets remained in perspective mode after European policy makers received another vote of no-confidence in their efforts to stem economic turmoil as the euro fell to its lowest in more than two years following final approval for a bailout of Spanish banks. The DAX gained 1.1%, followed by CAC 40 (0.41%), however, FTSE 100 declined by 0.27% for the week.</p>
<p>The Asian markets rose, with the regional benchmark gauge posting its largest weekly gain this month, amid speculation China and the US will do more to boost growth in the world&#8217;s two largest economies. The Hang Seng rose by 2.8% for the week, however, Nikkei fell by 0.63%.</p>
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<p>Over the next few days, as this being still a mid week month with the actual month end the following Tuesday. Investors will find whether the restrained response of the world&#8217;s major central banks to the latest signs of a global economic slowdown has been warranted.</p>
<p>The US and Britain release their first estimates of Q2 growth while a survey of purchasing managers&#8217; intentions across the euro zone will also hit the screens along with a steady flow of corporate earnings. But the approaching seasonal lull means few in the markets expect any big shift in sentiment, and most see the current bid for safety by some and the search for yield by more aggressive investors being extended. Greece will be back in investors&#8217; sights in the coming week after officials from the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and ECB as the Troika announced over the weekend that it has ceased funding further funds from a Ä130 bn bailout package. The ECB added to the concerns when it decided to stop accepting as collateral Greek sovereign bonds and other assets backed by the country&#8217;s government for use in money market operations from July 25.</p>
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		<title>US Economic Data Shows Sluggish Recovery Stalling</title>
		<link>http://blog.fxcc.com/us-economic-data-shows-sluggish-recovery-stalling/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=us-economic-data-shows-sluggish-recovery-stalling</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Jul 2012 07:55:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>FXCC Blog</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.fxcc.com/?p=4389</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Unemployment claims reverse most of previous weekís drop. In the week ended the 14th of July, US...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Unemployment claims reverse most of previous weekís drop. In the week ended the 14th of July, US initial jobless claims edged up again. Initial claims rose by 34 000, from an upwardly revised 352,000 to 386,000, while an increase to 365,000 was forecast. In the previous week, initial jobless claims dropped sharply, to its lowest level since early 2008. The Labor Department added that claims are experiencing volatility due to differences in timing of auto layoffs that normally occur during this time of the year. As the figures are distorted by seasonal adjustment factors, we shouldnít draw strong conclusions from it. The less volatile four-week moving average dropped from 377,000 to 375,500. Continuing claims, which are reported with an extra week lag, surprised on the upside of expectations, rising from 3,313,000 to 3,134,000, while the consensus was looking for a decline to 3,300,000.</p>
<p>For the first time in four months, the Philadelphia Fed index increased in July. The headline index rose from -16.6 to -12.9 after falling sharply in the previous two months. The rebound was somewhat disappointing, as the consensus was looking for a stronger recovery, to -8.0. The details show a pick-up in new orders (-6.9 from -18.8), shipments (-8.6 from -16.6) and unfilled orders (-9.5 from -16.3), while number of employees worsened significantly (from 1.8 to -8.4).<br />
&nbsp;</p>
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<p>&nbsp;<br />
Delivery time (-15.7 from -15.5), inventories (-7.5 from -8.7) and average workweek (-17.3 from -19.1), stayed broadly unchanged from the previous month but remain in severe contraction. Prices paid increased from -2.8 to 3.7 and prices received rose from -6.9 to 1.6. The forward looking index (six months from now) remained broadly unchanged from the previous month at 19.3 (from 19.5).</p>
<p>The Philly Fed index shows some improvement from the previous month, both in the headline figure and the details, but the index remains in serious contraction, raising expectations that last month&#8217;s sharp decline in the manufacturing ISM was no outlier. After a strong start of the year manufacturing activity is seriously slowing and might even be stalling.</p>
<p>In June, US existing home sales fell unexpectedly. Existing home sales dropped by 5.4% M/M to a total level of 4.37 million, while the previous figure was upwardly revised from 4.55M to 4.62M. The details show that weakness was broad-based as sales of both single family (-5.1% M/M) existing homes and existing condoís (-7.8% M/M) dropped in June. Regional data show that weakness was also wide-spread across the regions. The number of existing homes for sale fell from 2.470 million to 2.390 million, while monthsí supply picked up from 6.4 to 6.6. Price data show a pick-up in both median and average prices. Existing home sales fell to the lowest level in eight months due to tight supplies of affordable homes, which is limited first-timing buying. In the next months, US existing home sales will continue to suffer from falling inventories.</p>
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		<title>The BoE Keeps All Doors Open, Minutes Help Support the EUR/GBP</title>
		<link>http://blog.fxcc.com/the-boe-keeps-all-doors-open-minutes-help-support-the-eurgbp/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=the-boe-keeps-all-doors-open-minutes-help-support-the-eurgbp</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jul 2012 09:37:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>FXCC Blog</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.fxcc.com/?p=4185</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yesterday, trading in the EUR/GBP cross rate was confined to a tight range near the recent lows....]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday, trading in the EUR/GBP cross rate was confined to a tight range near the recent lows. The EUR/GBP cross rate jumped higher upon the publication of the Minutes of the July BoE meeting.</p>
<p>On the 5th of July, the Bank of England decided restart its asset purchase program by announcing an additional £50 billion of asset purchases, to a total of £375B. The Minutes of the meeting show that 7 members voted in favour of the proposition to finance a further £50 billion of asset purchases by the issuance of central bank reserves. Two members (Dale &amp; Broadbent) on the contrary preferred to maintain the stock of asset purchases at £325B. The Monetary Policy Committee believed that the near-term outlook for growth had weakened and added that it now seemed possible that output would be roughly flat over 2012 as a whole.</p>
<p>While there were risks to medium-term inflation in both directions, developments since the previous meeting meant that the upside risk had declined. The Minutes showed that members discussed the case for increase by either £50 billion or £75 billion, but decided that in the light of potential stimulus provided by other recent and prospective policy initiatives; an additional £50 billion was appropriate at the July meeting. Remarkably, also the case for a cut in the Bank Rate was discussed as the MPC said the impact of FLS (Funding for Lending Scheme) and other policy initiatives might in time alter the Committees assessment of the effectiveness of such a rate reduction. There are some surprises in the minutes, first of all that two members voted against an increase in the amount of asset purchases, but second also that the BoE keeps the door open for a rate cut.</p>
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<p>The message of the Minutes was mixed. However, a rise of £75 of asset purchases was also discussed and, probably even more important from a currency point of view, the issue of a rate cut is again on the radar. For now, there are no indications that the BoE will take this step anytime soon, but its assessment can change over time. The market clearly focused on the soft factors in the report. EUR/GBP jumped temporary to the 0.7869 area. However, at that time the global performance of the euro was not really inspiring. So, EUR/GBP soon took the way south again and even set a minor now low at 0.7830. From there, the euro found a better bid overall. EUR/USD closed the session at 0.7847, little changed from the 0.7846 close on Tuesday.</p>
<p>Today, the UK calendar contains the retail sales. A second consecutive monthly rise is expected. Of late, trading in sterling was in the first place driven by global factors. The UK currency is currently also a beneficiary from the (cautious) improvement in global sentiment on risk. The UK eco data are often only of second tier importance. Nevertheless, a strong retail sales report might keep sterling to hold strong against the euro. The decline of EUR/GBP is slowing, but the at least for now, there are no indications that a forceful rebound is at hand.</p>
<p>From a technical point of view, the EUR/GBP cross rate was captured in a consolidation pattern following a longstanding sell-off that started in February and ended Mid-May when the pair set a correction low at 0.7950. From there, a rebound/short squeeze kicked in.<br />
Continued trading above the 0.8100 area would call off the downside alert and improve the short-term picture. The pair tried several times to regain this area, but without sustainable results. Finally, EUR/GBP dropped below the 0.7950 range bottom. This break opens the way to the next high profile support, in the 0.77 area (Oct 2010 lows). The pair is oversold, suggesting that the decline might shift into a lower gear short-term</p>
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		<title>Earning and Corporate Moves Push Stocks and Commodities Upward</title>
		<link>http://blog.fxcc.com/earning-and-corporate-moves-push-stocks-and-commodities-upward/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=earning-and-corporate-moves-push-stocks-and-commodities-upward</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jul 2012 09:29:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>FXCC Blog</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.fxcc.com/?p=4180</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[U.S. stocks rose for a second day after companies from Intel Corp. to Honeywell International Inc. reported...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>U.S. stocks rose for a second day after companies from Intel Corp. to Honeywell International Inc. reported profit that beat estimates and housing starts increased to the fastest rate in almost four years.</p>
<p>Asian stocks rose, with the benchmark index headed toward its biggest gain in almost three weeks, after U.S. housing starts jumped to the highest level in four years.</p>
<p>Today markets are expected to open on a positive note and likely to remain firm during the day.<br />
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) scrapped a 0.1% yield floor for government bond purchases, opening the door to the possibility of buying debt with negative returns. The central bank removed the limit on purchases of securities with maturities of one year or less in its so-called Rinban operation.</p>
<p>New U.S. home construction rose in June to the highest level in almost 4 years, indicating the residential real estate market is strengthening even as other parts of the economy cool. Housing starts rose 6.9% to a 760,000 annual pace after a revised 711,000 rate in May that was faster than initially estimated.</p>
<p>Fed Reserve sought to assure lawmakers the Fed can limit inflation while providing record stimulus and won&#8217;t allow consumer prices to rise in return for faster economic growth. It will be a similar pattern to what we&#8217;ve seen in previous episodes where the Fed cut rates, provided support for the recovery, and when the recovery reached a point of takeoff where it could support itself on its own, then the Fed pulled back, took away the punch bowl, Bernanke said.</p>
<p>Oil traded near the highest close in seven weeks after U.S. gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly dropped and housing starts beat estimates, signaling fuel demand may increase amid an economic recovery.</p>
<p>The yen advanced against most major counterparts as concern about the implementation of measures to stem Europe&#8217;s debt crisis supported demand for Japan&#8217;s currency as a haven. The talk of the markets yesterday was Wall Street earning reports and corporate activities around the globe<br />
&nbsp;</p>
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<p>&nbsp;<br />
IBM raises earnings outlook, cites weak tech spending IBM raised its full-year earnings target, even as it posted a quarterly revenue shortfall, reflecting its ability to manage costs as global technology spending sputters. IBM now expects full year EPS &#8211; excluding items &#8211; of at least $15.10, versus at least $15.00 previously.</p>
<p>Adidas to close its only factory in China Adidas AG is closing its only company-owned sportswear factory in China later this year to streamline manufacturing. Spokeswoman Sabrina Cheung said China remained a key market for sourcing goods for Germany-based Adidas with more than 300 supplier partners in the country.</p>
<p>PetroChina, African Petroleum may sign deal for Africa blocks PetroChina said it had signed a MoU with African Petroleum Corp for a strategic investment in Africa. PetroChina has been given until Aug. 31 to agree an investment in up to 20% of Block LB-09 in Liberia and up to 20% in one or more exploration blocks in The Gambia, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Senegal and Sierra Leone.</p>
<p>Honeywell International profit up 11.7%, tops Wall Street view Honeywell Intl posted an 11.7% rise in quarterly profit, topping Wall Street forecasts, as strong U.S. demand for building-control systems and specialty chemicals offset weakness in Europe. The company also raised the low end of its full-year profit forecast by 5 cents, and now anticipates 2012 earnings of $4.40-$4.55 per share, representing growth of 9-12%.</p>
<p>Tycoons to start talks with BP on buying TNK-BP stake A group of Soviet-born tycoons said it had notified BP of its intention to start talks on increasing its stake in Russia&#8217;s third largest crude producer, TNK-BP. BP put its stake in TNK-BP up for sale on June 1 after a breakdown in relations with the AAR consortium, with which it shares control over a firm that accounts for almost a third of BP&#8217;s total crude output.</p>
<p>Bank of America plans $3 bn of new cost cuts BoA Corp said it plans to slash costs by $3 bn annually in commercial lending, investment banking and wealth management, becoming the latest big bank to take aim at expenses in a sluggish economy.</p>
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		<title>The EUR/GBP Tumbles to a New Low</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Jul 2012 09:41:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>FXCC Blog</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.fxcc.com/?p=4170</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yesterday, the EUR/GBP followed largely the intra-day movements of EUR/USD, but at the margin sterling again did...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday, the EUR/GBP followed largely the intra-day movements of EUR/USD, but at the margin sterling again did slightly better, as it set a new low.<br />
However, in a daily perspective, the price move was insignificant. EUR/GBP closed at 0.78529, marginally up from 0.7849 previously. The lower-than expected UK CPI was unable to leave its traces on the charts.</p>
<p>EUR/USD and EUR/GBP traded with a slight positive bias in early European trading. The lower-than-expected UK CPI had little impact, but when EUR/USD grinded lower, also EUR/GBP came off intra-day highs. As equity markets reacted disappointingly following the release of the headlines of Bernankeís speech, both EUR/USD and cable fell lower, but the euro was hit harder than sterling, which resulted in a new low in EUR/GBP at 0.7831. However, the disappointment was rapidly digested and riskier assets fought back. EUR/USD erased its losses and so did cable, but understandably, now it was the euro that outperformed sterling, pushing EUR/GBP back to opening levels. The session was insignificant in a broader perspective.</p>
<p>Today, the UK calendar contains the labor market data. We have no reasons to distance us from consensus that expects again slightly negative figures (+5K for the claims). The BoE Minutes are interesting as they will show the number of governors supporting the QE expansion by £50B and might give us more insight in their thinking.<br />
&nbsp;</p>
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<p>&nbsp;<br />
The market surprise has been the strength of the GBP/USD trading close to the all important 1.57 number. The GBP has been able to build momentum against the dollar and just needs a bit of positive data to break through. Today, claimant count might be the push that is needed.</p>
<p>From a technical point of view, the EUR/GBP cross rate was captured in a consolidation pattern following a longstanding sell-off that started in February and ended Mid-May when the pair set a correction low at 0.7950. From there, a rebound/short squeeze kicked in. Continued trading above the 0.8100 area would call off the downside alert and improve the short-term picture. The pair tried several times to regain this area, but without sustainable results. Finally, EUR/GBP dropped below the 0.7950 range bottom. This break opens the way to the next high profile support, in the 0.77 area (Oct 2010 lows). The pair is oversold, suggesting that the decline might shift into a lower gear short-term.<br />
The case for a rebound in EUR/GBP is technically slightly weaker, as yesterday there was still a near term low and in the EUR/USD the pair tested in vain this level for three consecutive sessions. Nevertheless, we stick to our view that the decline needs to be digested and oversold conditions worked off.</p>
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		<title>My Favorite Currency Pairs EUR/GBP and the USD/JPY</title>
		<link>http://blog.fxcc.com/my-favorite-currency-pairs-eurgbp-and-the-usdjpy/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=my-favorite-currency-pairs-eurgbp-and-the-usdjpy</link>
		<comments>http://blog.fxcc.com/my-favorite-currency-pairs-eurgbp-and-the-usdjpy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jul 2012 09:19:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>FXCC Blog</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.fxcc.com/?p=4084</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Recently not much happened in the USD/JPY cross rate. Trading was confined to the 79.00 big figure,...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Recently not much happened in the USD/JPY cross rate. Trading was confined to the 79.00 big figure, mostly with a cautiously negative bias. Global sentiment on risk remained fragile and core (US) bond yields were again on a downward path, reducing the incentive to look for yield pick-up from trades funded in the Japanese currency. Yesterday’s poor US retails sales pushed USD/JPY out of the 79.00 sideways trading range. Looking forward, the pressure on USD/JPY might remain to the downside and might even intensify. Poor US eco data and speculation on more QE will probably keep US bond yields under downward pressure short-term.</p>
<p>On the yen side of the story, the BOJ will probably maintain a wait-and-see approach as recent data from the Japanese domestic economy weren’t that bad. In this context, the upside in USD/JPY will remain difficult. This morning, Japanese policy makers warned that the current strength of the yen is not in line with fundamentals and indicated that they might take measures. However, we don’t expect that to happen anytime soon. On Monday, sterling initially continued its strong performance of the end of last week. There were no important eco data on the calendar in the UK trading was mostly technical in nature. EUR/USD and cable lost some ground early in the session, but cable still outperformed EUR/USD. So, EUR/GBP continued to set new lows against the single currency. This move was temporary interrupted as there was quite sharp repositioning/rebound in EUR/USD after the US retail sales. However, cable succeeded a catch-up move later in the session. EUR/GBP set a new correction low in the 0.7832 area. Of course, this was in the first place a dollar move rather than sterling or a euro move. In technical trade, EUR/GBP regained some ground later in the session. The pair closed at 0.7849, still a bit lower from the 0.7865 close on Friday evening.<br />
&nbsp;</p>
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<p>&nbsp;<br />
Today, the UK calendar contains the ONS house prices and the CPI. The CPI is interesting. However, as the BoE has as already set out the framework for the next four months, the market reaction should be subdued. So, technical considerations will continue to play an important role. Of late, cable clearly outperformed EUR/USD. The UK currency also profited more from the improved sentiment on risk than EUR/USD. In case of any reaction to the testimony of Bernanke before the Senate, this will in the first place be a dollar move. However, we look out whether the outperformance of cable will continue. In case of global market repositioning, the euro might be more ‘vulnerable’ to a correction/short squeeze than cable. If so, the decline of EUR/GBP might take a breather. We look out how this process turns out, but for now this is nothing more than hypothetical thinking.</p>
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		<title>A Quick Look at Global Commodities</title>
		<link>http://blog.fxcc.com/a-quick-look-at-global-commodities/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=a-quick-look-at-global-commodities</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jul 2012 09:15:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>FXCC Blog</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.fxcc.com/?p=4082</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Gold recovered to close marginally higher in a quiet trading session, as weak US retail sales cut...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gold recovered to close marginally higher in a quiet trading session, as weak US retail sales cut into the dollar&#8217;s gains ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman&#8217;s Congressional testimony which could provide the latest clue on monetary policies. Gold holdings  of SPDR gold trust, the largest ETF backed by the precious metal, declined to 1,266.11 tons, as on July 16.<br />
Silver holdings of iShares silver trust, the largest ETF backed by the metal, declined to 9,696.71 tons, as on July 13.The dollar index, which compares the US unit to a basket of other currencies, declined to 83.174 from 83.324 in late North American trade.</p>
<p>Copper prices declined, pressured by a decline in US retail sales, worries over Europe&#8217;s crisis. Copper futures for Sept. delivery closed down by 0.5% at $3.485 per pound on the COMEX of the New York Mercantile Exchange.</p>
<p>China&#8217;s refined copper production rose 7% to 518,000 tons in June, recovering from a 3-month low in May and matching a record high set last August.<br />
Aluminum production hit a record 1.685mn tons in June, up 0.1% from the previous record of 1.683mn tons set in May.</p>
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<p>Nickel production surged 33.4% from a month ago to  hit  a  year  high  of  23,688  tons  in  June after output fell 18.4% to a 15-month low of 17,761  tons  in  May,  as  per  data  from  the National Bureau of Statistics. Nickel traders probably added to bearish bets on prices last week, as the number of outstanding futures contracts climbed to the highest in at least 7-years at the same time as prices declined. Open interest in LME nickel futures rose by 9,160 contracts to 176,378 lots in the week to July 12, the highest level since at least Sept&#8217;05.</p>
<p>Crude oil prices rose for a fourth straight session, lifted by hopes that signs of economic slowing will prompt stimulus measures, especially in China and news that a US Navy vessel off the United Arab Emirates fired on fishing boat that failed to heed warnings.<br />
Brent&#8217;s premium to US crude slipped, closing at $15.12 per barrel based on August settlements after reaching $16.18 during intra-day.<br />
Natural gas futures closed lower, after forecasts of warmer-than-normal temperatures failed to trump concerns that rising gas prices will weigh on demand.</p>
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		<title>Crude Oil and Natural Gas on a Sleepy Market Day</title>
		<link>http://blog.fxcc.com/crude-oil-and-natural-gas-on-a-sleepy-market-day/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=crude-oil-and-natural-gas-on-a-sleepy-market-day</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Jul 2012 08:47:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>FXCC Blog</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.fxcc.com/?p=3955</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Currently, oil futures prices are trading above $85.90/bbl with a marginal gain from yesterday’s closing. A large...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Currently, oil futures prices are trading above $85.90/bbl with a marginal gain from yesterday’s closing. A large decline in crude oil stocks in the last week has made this spike in oil prices on yesterday. However, on the other side economic concerns due to lower demand and drops in growth forecast from major oil consuming nations are limiting the gain in oil prices. Most of the Asian equities are trading down as unexpected. A fall in Australian job rates was reported today. In addition to this, interest rate cut has been declared by Korea government.</p>
<p>The seventeen nation currency Euro is under pressure, which may weigh on oil futures prices. Other than this, from economic data front US weekly jobless claims data are due for today. Monthly budget statement of US may contract which may create further concern for growth of nation economy. Most importantly, no hint of monetary stimulus was seen by FOMC minutes which may play a role on oil prices. On other side, the drawdown of crude oil stocks may add some positive points in oil prices.</p>
<p>Currently, gas futures prices are trading above $2.856/mmbtu with gain of near 0.30 percent in Globex electronic platform. Today we may expect gas prices to continue the positive trend supported by its intrinsic fundamentals. As per National Hurricane centre, tropical storm Ellen has been strengthen with 100 knots in Eastern Pacific region, which may  create supply concern to add positive direction in on gas prices.  As per US Energy department, natural gas storage is expected to increase by 33 BCF in the last week.<br />
&nbsp;</p>
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<p>&nbsp;<br />
Consumption of power sector has also increased by 1.5 percent, which may support gas prices to remain on higher side. As per US weather forecast, temperature is expected to remain high in eastern region, which may create demand for gas consumption.  There has been no word on the request from the Japanese government to import natural gas from the US, which might push prices upwards if and when approved. The Administration and the EIA are looking at the proposal favorably.</p>
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		<title>Energy Update</title>
		<link>http://blog.fxcc.com/energy-update-4/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=energy-update-4</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Jul 2012 09:32:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>FXCC Blog</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.fxcc.com/?p=3714</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Currently oil futures prices are trading below $85/bbl with loss of more than 1.4 percent from yesterday’s...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Currently oil futures prices are trading below $85/bbl with loss of more than 1.4 percent from yesterday’s closing. Oil prices have slipped from its high as import of its second largest consuming nation China have fallen by more than 15 percent in the month of June. Crude oil imports have declined from 25.48 million barrels to 21.7million barrels in the last month, creating concern of lower demand. Other than this, Norway labor union strike has been called off, which had threatened to close production today onwards. Thus, Oil prices have taken negative cues from the above two major factors. Currently, most of the Asian equities are trading down as China imports have fallen the most, whereas exports are increasing.</p>
<p>A rise in US consumer credit is also creating concern of US economic growth. Lower manufacturing activities data from UK and France, are also expected to keep Euro under pressure which may drive oil prices northward. Other than this, US crude oil stocks are likely to fall, whereas increase in petroleum stocks is expected which may limit the fall in oil prices. Overall, we may expect oil futures prices to trade under pressure throughout the day.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Currently, gas futures prices are trading below $2.870/mmbtu with loss of more than 0.40 percent in electronic trading. Today we may expect gas prices to continue the positive trend supported by its intrinsic fundamentals. As per National Hurricane centre, there are 40 percent chances of tropical storm formation near eastern pacific region which may create supply concern to add positive direction in on gas prices. Consumption of power sector has also increased by 1.5 percent, which may support gas prices to remain on higher side. As per US weather forecast, temperature is expected to remain high in eastern region, which may create demand for gas consumption. However, the called off Norway Energy industry strike may limit the gain in this commodity. Investors are eagerly awaiting this week&#8217;s inventory, hoping for a drop in supply. Also the Japanese proposal to import US natural gas is expected to get favorable support.</p>
<p>In the US when there are seasonal demands on electricity the producers use Natural Gas for their excess production needs, putting a demand on supplies. This summer is beginning exceptionally hot.</p>
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		<title>Market Commentary &#8211; French Business Activity Shrinks or Stinks</title>
		<link>http://blog.fxcc.com/market-commentary-french-business-activity-shrinks-or-stinks-2/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=market-commentary-french-business-activity-shrinks-or-stinks-2</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Jul 2012 07:12:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>FXCC Blog</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.fxcc.com/?p=3705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[French financial activity contracted slightly in 2Q and is unlikely to actually get better in the near...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>French financial activity contracted slightly in 2Q and is unlikely to actually get better in the near term, the Bank of Spain estimated Monday, mentioning the results of its monthly company analysis. The central financial institution confirmed its preceding prominence for a 0.one% National income dip in 2Q. Last 30 days, The National Statistics Institute Insee had looked for another section of stability, payment on a guitar pickup in funding to actually offset a decline in confidential consumption.</p>
<p>The central bank’s newest survey indicated that industry yield ended up being “overall stable in 06, the decline in the auto area being just about balance out by a development mostly in the drug sector and in the agri-food industry.”</p>
<p>Area capacity application recovered from 76.8% in May to actually 77.3% but was still well below average. Done items inventories rose and order guides contracted further. Costs were little modified. After a one-point downward revision for May, the Bank of France area climate measure, based on the newest three months’ results, dropped another aspect to actually ninety one, the least point in nearly three years. Manufacturers’ overall production outlook for July slipped back a couple of points to actually nothing, pointing to “stability” in the short time period, the state financial institution said.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Other leading indicators also reported weak activity ahead. The National Statistics Institute Insee&#8217;s symbol of own-company expectations is far below typical and the factory PMI remains profound in decrease territory, right up just a half aspect (forty-five.2) from the three-year low in May, with new purchases even weaker (43.0).<br />
France’s sales sector contracted slightly in June in the face of fading need, despite a decline in fees charged, the BoF survey showed. Area payrolls were overall steady. The services index dropped a couple of factors to actually a 29-month low of 90.</p>
<p>The new manufacturing activity in July ended up being overall unchanged at -1. Along with expectations across lines and combined, the Bank of France signaled “uncertainty” over prospects for the weeks ahead. France’s PMI bounced back 2.8 points in 06 (forty-seven.9) from a seven-month low, but repeated to signal shrinking exercise and new business (46.8). The National Statistics Institute Insee&#8217;s area survey confirmed a further apparent decline in company satisfaction in June.</p>
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		<title>The EUR/GBP overdoes it on International Bank Day</title>
		<link>http://blog.fxcc.com/the-eurgbp-overdoes-it-on-international-bank-day/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=the-eurgbp-overdoes-it-on-international-bank-day</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Jul 2012 10:14:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>FXCC Blog</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentaries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eur]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eurgbp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gbp]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.fxcc.com/?p=3511</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yesterday should have been called International Central Bank Day, with the Peoples Bank of China, the European...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday should have been called International Central Bank Day, with the Peoples Bank of China, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all making headlines.</p>
<p>The EUR/GBP traded quite volatile in the run-up the policy decisions of the BOE and the ECB. The pair hovered in a 0.8020/0.8040 rang going into announcement of the BOE. The Bank brought no surprise and raised the programme of asset purchases by £50 bln to £ 375. Sterling moved to the bottom of the mentioned trading range. This might be partly due to some outside expectations for more aggressive action of the BOE. However, it was not the BoE who took markets by surprise. Less than one hour after the BoE decision, the ECB policy decision flashed on the screens. The rate cut of the ECB refi rate was not surprise. However, the zero deposit rate was clearly not discounted in the market. With this decision, the ECB moved clearly in uncharted territory. This high profile decision hit the euro. EUR/USD tumbled and EUR/GBP to some extent joined this move; the pair dropped below the 0.8000 mark and EUR/GBP tested the 0.7972 support, the last area of defense head of the year low at 0.7950. However, this level was left intact, at least for now.</p>
<p>Today, the UK PPI data will be published. They are interesting, but with yesterday’s BOE step out of the way, we doubt that this report will have much impact on markets. To focus will continue to be on the fall-out from yesterday’s ECB decision. Sentiment on the single currency as clearly deteriorated. EUR/GBP is coming very close to the year low. A test of this level might be on the cards and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a break of this level.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The EUR/GBP cross rate consolidates following a longstanding sell-off that started in February and ended Mid-May when the pair set a correction low at 0.7950. From there, a rebound/short squeeze kicked in.  Continued trading above the 0.8100 area would call off the downside alert and improve the short-term picture. The pair tried several times to regain this area, but there were no follow-through gains. Of late, we looked to sell into strength for return action lower in the range. In case the 0.7950 year low would be broken, the next high profile support is seen in the 0.77 area.</p>
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		<title>Sterling and Central Bank Decisions</title>
		<link>http://blog.fxcc.com/sterling-and-central-bank-decisions/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=sterling-and-central-bank-decisions</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jul 2012 12:53:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>FXCC Blog</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentaries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Central Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sterling]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.fxcc.com/?p=3436</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yesterday, on US Independence Day with US markets closed the, EUR/GBP trading developed in thin market conditions....]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday, on US Independence Day with US markets closed the, EUR/GBP trading developed in thin market conditions. The price action was mostly driven by technical considerations. The final services PMI in the EMU was less negative than expected. The UK services PMI dropped to a lower than expected 51.8, but stayed above the 50 boom or bust level.</p>
<p>EUR/USD reached an intermediate top at 0.8047 just before the publication of the UK figure. However, the move was reversed soon.</p>
<p>EUR/GBP made again a temporary spike higher in afternoon trade and filled offers just north of the 0.8050 barrier. This might have been due to an adjustment of positions in cable ahead of the BoE meeting. The move was again reversed as the euro ceded ground across the board at the end of the trading in Europe. EUR/GBP closed the session at 0.8034, almost unchanged from the 0.8036 close on Tuesday.</p>
<p>Today, will be a busy day for EUR/GBP traders as both the BoE and the ECB will decide on monetary policy. Everything looks in place for the BoE to restart the program of asset purchases. Activity data confirm that activity in the UK is slowing. At the same time inflation is at a 2 ½-year low. The MPC was already close to a restart of the program last month with governor King in favor of £50B of asset purchases. So, the debate in the market is whether the BoE will announce £50 or £75B of bond purchases. One remark on the sidelines: of late (e.g. in the hearing before a committee of Parliament), BoE members apparently were aware that the impact of more bond buying on the economy would not be spectacular anymore.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>So, other measures (like the plan in cooperation with the government to facilitate lending to the economy) are becoming more important. Nevertheless, in the current context the BoE, cannot ignore market expectations. So, we opt for a £50B additional asset purchases. This should be fairly neutral for sterling. For the ECB, there is also room for a surprise. We don’t rule out that the ECB will take quite bold action. The impact on global markets is not that easy to predict. Nevertheless, we don’t expect that the ECB will bring much support for the euro, even not if the decision would (temporary?) support risky assets. So, we assume that the 0.8100/0.8169 resistance will remain a tough resistance for the EUR/GBP cross rate.</p>
<p>The EUR/GBP cross consolidates following a longstanding sell-off that started in February and ended Mid-May when the pair set a correction low at 0.7950. From there, a rebound/short squeeze kicked in.</p>
<p>For now we continue to play the range and still slightly prefer to sell EUR/GBP into strength for return action toward the 0.7950 area.</p>
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		<title>Gold &#8211; Silver &#8211; Crude Oil and Gas on the Holiday</title>
		<link>http://blog.fxcc.com/gold-silver-crude-oil-and-gas-on-the-holiday/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=gold-silver-crude-oil-and-gas-on-the-holiday</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Jul 2012 12:02:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>FXCC Blog</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentaries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[crude oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Holiday]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[silver]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.fxcc.com/?p=3398</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With US markets closed today for the Independence Day holiday, trading is expected to be light during...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With US markets closed today for the Independence Day holiday, trading is expected to be light during the European session and then quiet the rest of the day. There is little in the way of eco data from around the globe.</p>
<p>Commodity markets closed higher for the second time in 3-days, with oil prices leading the way as they posted one of their biggest, broadest rallies ever, after news from Iran stoked Mid-east supply worries.</p>
<p>Spot gold climbed to a 2-week high, as signs of a slowing US economy fuelled investors&#8217; expectation that central banks around the world will introduce new monetary stimulus.</p>
<p>Gold prices in India fell for a third straight session, weighed by a stronger rupee that hit its highest level in a month-and-a-half.</p>
<p>Gold holdings  of SPDR gold trust, the largest ETF backed by the precious metal, declined to 1,279.51 tons, as on June 29.</p>
<p>Silver holdings of iShares silver trust, the largest ETF backed by the metal, declined to 9,681.63 tons, as on July 3.</p>
<p>The dollar index, which compares the US unit to a basket of other currencies, traded at 81.803, up from around 81.888 in late North American trading on Monday.</p>
<p>Copper rose to a 7-week high in international markets, leading a rally in industrial metals, on expectations that central banks will move to stoke economic growth. Copper futures for Sept. delivery closed up by 2.1% at $3.5405 per pound on the COMEX of the New York Mercantile Exchange.</p>
<p>Crude oil surged to a one-month high, on speculation that central banks from Europe to China will ease monetary policy to spur growth while sanctions against Iran added to the supply worries.</p>
<p>Brent crude rose more than 3% yesterday, topping $100 per barrel as rising tensions over Iran&#8217;s nuclear program sparked oil&#8217;s second rally in three sessions after a second-quarter slide. Iran said it had successfully tested missiles capable of hitting Israel in response to threats of military action against the Islamic Republic over its nuclear ambitions.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Crude oil stocks fell 3mn barrels, gasoline stocks fell 1.4mn barrels and distillate stocks fell 1.1mn barrels, as per API report. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma oil hub rose 247,000 barrels.</p>
<p>Natural gas futures rose nearly 3%, boosted by some pre-holiday short covering &amp; supported by hot weather in much of the nation that has increased air conditioning demand.</p>
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